1980 Presidential Election Closer?

[JerryBrown2010]

Was the 1980 Presidential Election expected to be closer than it was? I found this picture showing Reagan with a 3 point lead over Carter in November.

[Bo]

Yes, it was expected to be closer until Reagan asked voters if they were better off than there were four years ago. That opened a large lead for Reagan right before election day according to some polls (not shown on this chart).

[redcommander]

62% for Carter in January! That seems a little off especially considering the economic situation at the time.

[Nym90]

62% for Carter in January! That seems a little off especially considering the economic situation at the time.

The hostages in Iran had just recently been taken so there was a "rally around the flag" effect.

[Bo]

62% for Carter in January! That seems a little off especially considering the economic situation at the time.

The hostages in Iran had just recently been taken so there was a "rally around the flag" effect.

This, combined with the fact that unemployment was 6.3% in January but 7.5% in November.

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet

[Sasquatch]

Was the 1980 Presidential Election expected to be closer than it was? I found this picture showing Reagan with a 3 point lead over Carter in November.

This is what that November poll would have looked like if that was the case IRL.

Reagan - 47% (-4)  308
Carter -   44% (+3)  230
Anderson - 8% (+1)

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Definitely. As Rochambeau said earlier, Reagan's landslide victory is probably mostly due to the Carter-Reagan debate. Before that it was a tossup and I think Carter even led in some polls. But in that debate (the only time Carter and Reagan engaged in a debate), that one quote turned the race from a tossup to a decisive Reagan lead instantly, and it soon ended up a 10 point lead in the popular vote (Reagan won 41-51).

[Lahbas]

More curiously, what would have a June poll looked like, with Anderson still at his peak, but Reagan ahead of Carter.

[Sasquatch]

More curiously, what would have a June poll looked like, with Anderson still at his peak, but Reagan ahead of Carter.

Take the map I posted above and switch LA, MI, and VT.


Anderson comes in second place in a few plains states.

[Lahbas]

More curiously, what would have a June poll looked like, with Anderson still at his peak, but Reagan ahead of Carter.

Take the map I posted above and switch LA, MI, and VT.


Anderson comes in second place in a few plains states.

My take on that election, using number calculations. Anderson does well, but he does not throw the election into the House.

Reagan: 350
Carter: 147
Anderson: 41

[Lahbas]

Of course, if the election had been held back in January, the map could have become something like this....

Carter: 503
Reagan: 35

[You kip if you want to...]

Of course, if the election had been held back in January, the map could have become something like this....

Carter: 503
Reagan: 35

That's probably a bit generous to Reagan on a 30-point lead.

[Bo]

KyleGordon, where specifically did you find this poll?

[hcallega]

Ronald Reagan (R) 38%. 311
Jimmy Carter (D) 36%, 227
John Anderson (I) 26%

States with Anderson in Second: Alaska, Arizona, D.C., Idaho, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Wyoming
States with Carter in Third: Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Carter, Vermont, Wyoming
States with Reagan in Third: D.C., Massachusetts, Rhode Island

Reagan is hurt by Anderson significantly, but not enough to loose what is still a tough loss for Carter. Anderson wins a strange coalition of New England Republicans who are not as conservative as Reagan and Western Democrats unhappy with Carter.

[Reaganfan]

Yes, newscasters and pundits and even the Reagan's themselves were expecting a long night, and even the possibility of Carter being re-elected.

[21st Century Independent]

Yes, newscasters and pundits and even the Reagan's themselves were expecting a long night, and even the possibility of Carter being re-elected.

The results showed that when voters stepped into the booth, many Anderson voters switched to Reagan. Blue dogs for Reagan too.

[SingingAnalyst]

Carter lost several states by 2% or less, including 3 states with 32 EVs by 0.6% or less. Here is the map if all these states are awarded to Carter:

Reagan 399
Carter 139
Still a rout for Reagan, but a more respectable looking one for Carter.