What I see happening

[© tweed]

I think Kerry is a lost cause in Wisconsin and Iowa, probably will lose NH, and is no better than 50-50 in ME-02 and NH.

(Stephen A. Smith voice)  HOWEVER,

HE looks to be at at least a 50-50 chance in Ohio, and the same in Florida (unless Gallup is right, but they disagree with all other firms) and Pennsylvania is likely in JK's column.

The point is, Kerry has a legitimate shot of losing the PV by a few million votes and winning the election with the big 3.  Thoughts?

[A18]

If he lost by 3 million votes, the GOP legislatures in Florida and Ohio would cast the electors for Bush.

[Sam Spade]

A "few million votes" translates into roughly 2-4%.

I'm pretty sure Vorlon would agree with me here; it's pretty much impossible for any candidate to lose the PV by more than say roughly 0.7% (round it off and say 1%) and still win the EV.  The percentages just don't work.

However, I would still say that Kerry can win.  How?

Most national polling is coming up with a result of around Bush 49, Kerry 46 (might be Bush 48 or 49, Kerry 45 or 46 maybe even 47, but that ain't worth arguing about).

At that point, if Kerry can swing the undecideds his way, he could pull the race into a rough tie and then anything can happen.

A good GOTV effort by either side could change this result by 1-2% as well.

As far as I can figure, there are two possible results right now:  A Bush win of about 3-4%, with 300+EV or a dead tied race with any number of things happening.  

We should know soon.

[© tweed]

If he lost by 3 million votes, the GOP legislatures in Florida and Ohio would cast the electors for Bush.

What basis is there for this practice?

It tells the people that their vote doesn't count twice:

1. Bush, the rightful winner because more people voted for him, loses
2. Kerry, the rightful winner of Ohio and Florida, loses those states because the legislatures want him to

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The point is, Kerry has a legitimate shot of losing the PV by a few million votes and winning the election with the big 3.  Thoughts?

I think Gore's PV margin is the max for a EV loser.  I don't think there is anyway (this year) that either Bush or Kerry could win the PV by over 1M votes yet lose the EV.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think Kerry is a lost cause in Wisconsin and Iowa, probably will lose NH, and is no better than 50-50 in ME-02 and NH.

(Stephen A. Smith voice)  HOWEVER,

HE looks to be at at least a 50-50 chance in Ohio, and the same in Florida (unless Gallup is right, but they disagree with all other firms) and Pennsylvania is likely in JK's column.

The point is, Kerry has a legitimate shot of losing the PV by a few million votes and winning the election with the big 3.  Thoughts?

You mention NH twice.  A poll by Franklin Pierce College that came out today has Kerry up by 9, and their sample is +11 Republican.  That's probably an exaggeration, but it certainly isn't a lost cause for Kerry.

With regard to the popular vote, Kerry could win the EV and lose the PV, but not by more than 1%.   If he squeaks out a win in FL and OH, it will be because of a GOTV effort that will prove many of the national polls wrong.

[angus]

I think Kerry is a lost cause in Wisconsin and Iowa, probably will lose NH, and is no better than 50-50 in ME-02 and NH.

(Stephen A. Smith voice)  HOWEVER,

HE looks to be at at least a 50-50 chance in Ohio, and the same in Florida (unless Gallup is right, but they disagree with all other firms) and Pennsylvania is likely in JK's column.

The point is, Kerry has a legitimate shot of losing the PV by a few million votes and winning the election with the big 3.  Thoughts?

turnabout is poetic, in a way.  and ironic.

Assuming equal a priori probabilities, the fact that it happened last time doesn't affect the odds that it'll happen again this time.  Remember the movie "Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead" ??  What a great movie!

But we shouldn't really assume equal a priori probabilities in this case, and I think the scenario you describe is possible, but I'll agree with jmfcst and samspade that, at least in the polls I've seen, such a scenario isn't likely to yield a PV winner who loses.

I do like an election night that lasts six weeks, though!

[A18]

If he lost by 3 million votes, the GOP legislatures in Florida and Ohio would cast the electors for Bush.

What basis is there for this practice?

It tells the people that their vote doesn't count twice:

1. Bush, the rightful winner because more people voted for him, loses
2. Kerry, the rightful winner of Ohio and Florida, loses those states because the legislatures want him to

Your vote counts if the legislature wants it to. If it doesn't, you can vote them out if you really don't like their decision.

[MAS117]

I think Kerry is a lost cause in Wisconsin and Iowa, probably will lose NH, and is no better than 50-50 in ME-02 and NH.

(Stephen A. Smith voice)  HOWEVER,

HE looks to be at at least a 50-50 chance in Ohio, and the same in Florida (unless Gallup is right, but they disagree with all other firms) and Pennsylvania is likely in JK's column.

The point is, Kerry has a legitimate shot of losing the PV by a few million votes and winning the election with the big 3.  Thoughts?

Kerry will in NH and probably at least 3 out of the 4 EVs in Maine.