Pick a poll... any poll...

[angus]

I wouldn't put it past the Democrats to do that sort of thing.  

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

As much as I wish from my standpoint that Delaware was a possibility, I just don't think it's in the cards.  It's too much like Maryland.

SD went for Bush by 20 something points in 2000.  It's pretty safe I think.

But Dukakis lost Delaware by twice the margin he lost South Dakota! (12% vs. 6%)

I don't think either state is likely to switch from 2000, but the country sure has changed in the last 15 years.

[12th Doctor]

As much as I wish from my standpoint that Delaware was a possibility, I just don't think it's in the cards.  It's too much like Maryland.

SD went for Bush by 20 something points in 2000.  It's pretty safe I think.

But rural Maryland IS Republican and heavily so.  MD-1 which boarders Deleware has a cook partisan index of +9 Republican.

Deleware could go Republican, but Wilmington is heavily Democrat.  So if anything, Deleware is too much like Philadelphia to be easily in Republican reach.

[angus]

If I were the Bush campaign I would try a registration effort in Delaware. The state was only won by 40,000 votes and if you can increase turnout in the South and make campaign pitches there, you may be able to see a high turnout for Bush. Delaware would practically negate the loss of NH.

Delaware is the 'hood boss.  I don't think anyone whose last name is Bush is going to find friendliness there.

[Nation]

I don't think DE would matter too much to Bush anyway -- I'm seeing the EC victory margin to be a little bigger than 2000.

[angus]

The incumbent only has to tie, whereas the challenger has to win.  This condition owes itself to the fact that more delegations in the House are R than D.  Bush advantage.  Big states, with the exception of the 2nd and 4th most populous states, are likely to vote for Kerry.  Kerry advantage.  Are we to presume that your tacit assumption is that Kerry will take big states such as ohio and florida?  Or that he'll win enough medium states such as arizona or tennessee or louisiana?  Or in a bunch of small ones?  or in some combination thereof?  

Or are you saying that people all over the USA are thoroughly convinced that W is so confused or malevolent that they'll vote for Kerry in droves everywhere?


NEWS UPDATE:  PRESIDENTIAL IMPEACHMENT IN SOUTH KOREA.

[Gustaf]

The incumbent only has to tie, whereas the challenger has to win.  This condition owes itself to the fact that more delegations in the House are R than D.  Bush advantage.  Big states, with the exception of the 2nd and 4th most populous states, are likely to vote for Kerry.  Kerry advantage.  Are we to presume that your tacit assumption is that Kerry will take big states such as ohio and florida?  Or that he'll win enough medium states such as arizona or tennessee or louisiana?  Or in a bunch of small ones?  or in some combination thereof?  

Or are you saying that people all over the USA are thoroughly convinced that W is so confused or malevolent that they'll vote for Kerry in droves everywhere?


NEWS UPDATE:  PRESIDENTIAL IMPEACHMENT IN SOUTH KOREA.

I think what he's saying is rather that whoever wins will swing both Florida and Ohio and win fairly big, so 3 EVs from Delaware won't matter one way or another.