Pick a poll... any poll...

[The Vorlon]

Since March 1st, there have been at least 8 national polls by reasonably respectable organizations on the Bush/Kerry race, showing anything from Bush being up 2% to Kerry being up 11%...

5 polls showing (essentially) a dead head...

NBC News - Bush +2
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4499877/

National Public Radio - Bush +2
http://www.npr.org/news/specials/polls/mar2004/mar04.pdf

Associated Press - Bush +1
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040304/D813Q6E01.html

Rassmussen Research - TIED
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Fox News - TIED
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,113412,00.html

One poll showing a marginal Kerry lead....

Investors Business Daily - Kerry +3
http://www.tipponline.com/

Two polls showing a big kerry lead....

ABC/Washington Post - Kerry +8
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/Politics/bush_kerry_poll_040308.html

CNN/UsaToday - Kerry +11
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

No person's liberty is safe while Congress is in session - Thomas Jefferson

[angus]

I'd suggest to Carl Rove to pick the CNN poll and preach it as gospel.  Put some fear into the fat rich bastards, so they'll hand over some of that money.

[elcorazon]

I pick cnn/usatoday.   haha.  I wish.  That one is most likely an outlier.  There is some day to day variation, plus there could be sampling issues with some but really only the bottom 2 are way out of line.  You could explain it to us, vorlon, but I believe even a well-done poll with a small margin of error could be "wrong" in the sense the margin of error is usually described as +/- 3% to a 95% certainty, meaning 5% of the time it is off by more than 3%.  Anyway it seems clear to me that Kerry has a very slight lead right now, which may be no lead at all in the EC, depending on how it breaks down.  With 8 months to go, it is way to close to worry about the nuances, although I'm sure I will.

[John]

I Think these Polls are Great

[angus]

I love that Ayn Rand stamp, by the way.  I'll have to go to the USPO at lunch and get a big wad of them.  To bad it's not 37c.

For the heart,

As you may (or may not) remember from your "Introduction to Statistics" class, the formula for calculating the margin of error for 95% confidence level is:

MOE = sqrt((p)(1-p)/n)*2s,
where n=number of respondents
           p=number who answered a given question
           s=two standard deviations from the mean

[elcorazon]

I have forgotten the formula, but the point remains that when a poll has a margin of error, it does not mean it is impossible for a result to be outside of that margin.  This is especially true when there is a new poll every day/week for a long time.  At some point a poll will be anomolous.  Of course, we often don't know that until later.  As Vorlon has pointed out, the results get most accurate right around the election, so we don't know if late changes indicate actual changes or outlier poll results.  

[John]

So the Red is Kerry
& the Blue is Bush
Florida is in Kerry Coulme well
Bush is going after Nov 2nd if doest Win Florida & Ohio
Think It will be a Close one with no Recount

[angus]

Bush is going after Nov 2nd if doest Win Florida & Ohio

I think he needs to win both.

[Gustaf]

Bush is going after Nov 2nd if doest Win Florida & Ohio

I think he needs to win both.

He could win with only one, but I doubt it.

[zachman]

Bush's problem is he doesn't have any states that are prime for electoral gains. The dems. do.

[angus]

such as?

[California Dreamer]

well Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico are possible pickups for Bush. They are dreaming about Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Michigan as well.

For Kerry I would put W Virginia and New Hampshire in his column pretty firmly. Other pickups that look reasonable are Ohio and Florida. The rest of their wishlist is Nevada, Arizona and Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas but those are doubtfull.

[angus]

Bush wins Florida.  Not sure about NH, WV and OH.

I do like that signature.  Makes it hard to concentrate on your posts, though.  By the way, you know she isn't a Democrat, right?

[StevenNick]

I still think that when all is said and done, Bush will have won in a landslide.  Probably his election victory will be by similar margins as his dad's victory over Dukakis in 1998.

[Gustaf]

I still think that when all is said and done, Bush will have won in a landslide.  Probably his election victory will be by similar margins as his dad's victory over Dukakis in 1998.

That's unlikely but still possible, PV wise. Kerry almost certainly will get more EVs than Dukakis did, due to regional polarization.

[agcatter]

Bush very well may win, but I don't see anything like an 88 landslide.  The country is 4% more brown and black than it was then.

[zachman]

The republican strategy should focus on Pennsylvania, the Upper Midwest, and maintaining Ohio and West Virginia, there is only so much he can do, but I don't think people's opinions will change tremendously from now until November.

[12th Doctor]

well Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico are possible pickups for Bush. They are dreaming about Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Michigan as well.

For Kerry I would put W Virginia and New Hampshire in his column pretty firmly. Other pickups that look reasonable are Ohio and Florida. The rest of their wishlist is Nevada, Arizona and Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas but those are doubtfull.

Kerry will win in NH I think but West Virginia?  I don't think so.  Only in a solid Kerry victory would that happen.  The south is lost to the Dems for a generation I think so bye bye Tennessee, Arkansas, Virginia and North Carolina.  Arizona, not unless McCain switches sides (which he won't).  Bush is solid in Florida, despite recent polls.  The best chance for the Dems is Ohio.  Oregon and PA are certianly in Bush's range.  Bush barely lost Oregon and I know Pa could easily swing to Bush, especially with Kerry at the top of the ticket.  Dean probably would have won Pa in the long run, but Kerry will be vunerable here because Pa is not a "Patrician" state.  Washington and Michigan are out of Bush's grasp I think.

The Dems should focun on winning Ohio and Missouri.  That's the only shot they have for an EV win unless Kerry wins by more than 3% which isn't likely.

[zachman]

      Oregon had a huge Nader effect and that will decline this time aroun. There are also former Deaniacs and ABB activists massed up on the west coast, although in a lesser concentration than California and Washington, that will turn the entire base there to vote for Kerry, giving him an approximate 5% lead. NM is definitely a worthwhile prospect to look into for Bush, particularly because the voter loyalties of the region are weak. WV has a weird tenedency to never be close, and did vote for Carter in 80', and I think Kerry can strike through there.

[agcatter]

supersoullty,
what part of the state are you in?

[zachman]

If I were the Bush campaign I would try a registration effort in Delaware. The state was only won by 40,000 votes and if you can increase turnout in the South and make campaign pitches there, you may be able to see a high turnout for Bush. Delaware would practically negate the loss of NH.

[zachman]

South Dakota could be another target for the democrats, although they already have a strong pool of options.

Is South Dakota a pro-guns and pro industry state much in the same way that West Virginia is? They had a close finish for Clinton in 1996 and Dukakis in 1988.

[agcatter]

As much as I wish from my standpoint that Delaware was a possibility, I just don't think it's in the cards.  It's too much like Maryland.

SD went for Bush by 20 something points in 2000.  It's pretty safe I think.

[angus]

Nobody ever talks about SD but I have thought about that too.  Daschle (if I'm not mistaken) is up for reelection and Kerry coattails could be good for him there.  On the other hand, SD hasn't given its votes to the Democrats since the 1964 so it may be considered safe.  On the balance, I'd not want to waste too much GOP money there, unless the Democrats start an active campaign and force the Republicans to.  I've never been there and can't comment on your question.

[zachman]

But in these states with low turnouts, a get out the vote effort could probably target enough votes to carry the state.

I'm surprised there isn't a movement of democrats who move to a town in ND or Wisconsin, from NY, Mass., or California for elections to get away with it.