Does The Missing Explosives Hurt Bush?

[FireFighterForBush]

Comments -- ?

[A18]

?

[Defarge]

It will be relatively minor, simply another index card on the Kerry attack roll-a-dex concerning Iraq. Nothing major.

[nini2287]

This is certainly a spinnable story both ways, whoever is able to spin it more effectively will see the gain in polls.

[Sam Spade]

+/- 0.1% shift in the polls.

I hear some cow in the Dakotas may change her vote because of it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

780,000 pounds of high powered explosives.

We royally screwed up. We found them intact after we invaded, and then didn't guard them:

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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6323933/

Bush adminstration exuses:  "we had no way to guard it, blah blah blah"

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http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/25/iraq.explosives/index.html

What will the terrorists do with their 780,000 pounds of high powered explosives?

[J. J.]

There is some question if it was looted before the US Army got there.  Interestingly, NBC had an embedded team with the first group occupied.

[Whacker77]

It looks bad and that's the way the nightly newscats portrayed it this evening.  All three lead with the story.  I don't know how it actually will play.  I do know that the material was missing before the Third Infantry Division reached the site.  I saw that earlier today.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There is some question if it was looted before the US Army got there.  Interestingly, NBC had an embedded team with the first group occupied.

They were intact after we invaded.

This says it all:

"Post-War Planning: To be provided"

http://commonsense99.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/17/215633/76

If you're going to start a war for no reason that makes us more vulnerable, at least spend some time planning what you're going to do after you invade.

[agcatter]

No

[ATFFL]

I have a funny feeling they were shipped to a pair of US allies who are looking into getting their own set of nuclear weapons to counter a certain dictator.

[J. J.]

There is some question if it was looted before the US Army got there.  Interestingly, NBC had an embedded team with the first group occupied.

They were intact after we invaded.

This says it all:

"Post-War Planning: To be provided"

http://commonsense99.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/17/215633/76

If you're going to start a war for no reason that makes us more vulnerable, at least spend some time planning what you're going to do after you invade.

Let's see if it was actually there first.

[njsketch]

No, and my view is that when people hear Iraq and weapons in the same sentence they stop listening. 

This is the same problem that the Dems had with trying to separate Iraq from the WOT.  They haven't done that great of a job convincing the American people that Iraq is a diversion.  The same will be said with this story...Iraq...weapons...we already knew that. 

The American person's attention span is so short nowadays that an in depth discussion of this (which can be spun both ways favorable to Reps or Dems) will be lost. 

Net gain for either side: nada

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There is some question if it was looted before the US Army got there.  Interestingly, NBC had an embedded team with the first group occupied.

They were intact after we invaded.

This says it all:

"Post-War Planning: To be provided"

http://commonsense99.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/17/215633/76

If you're going to start a war for no reason that makes us more vulnerable, at least spend some time planning what you're going to do after you invade.

Let's see if it was actually there first.

Yes, it was.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6323933/

[Bogart]

Yeah, it does sound like they were lost after the U.S. invasion and it sounds like the IAEA warned Bremer and the Iraqis. If all this pans out, I'd say this is a pretty major screw up. Having said that, I don't think we'll know enough by Election Day to impact the race much either way. 

[J. J.]

We'll several tons of anything is exceptionally hard to move, and the Iraqis didn't have the equipment or manpower.  It's not missing.

[ATFFL]

We'll several tons of anything is exceptionally hard to move, and the Iraqis didn't have the equipment or manpower.  It's not missing.

That is what I am saying.  I think the US sent it to S. Korea and Japan.

[khirkhib]

No it isn't missing.  American troops find a little bit of it everyday in Improvised Roadside Bombs.

[J. J.]

No it isn't missing.  Actually American troops are find a little bit of it everyday in Improvised Roadside Bombs.

Actually, it hasn't been that.

Please tell me howmany trucks it takes to move 100 tons of stuff.

[Bogart]

Well, according to the NYT article, one truck can move about 10 tons--so you'd be looking at about 40 trucks to move the amount that is said to be missing.

[khirkhib]

Oh it's impossible to move 40 trucks worth of explosives.  We must have flown it all to south korea and forgotten about it.  1lb of this explosive blew up the plane over locerbie.

[J. J.]

Oh it's impossible to move 40 trucks worth of explosives.  We must have flown it all to south korea and forgotten about it.  1lb of this explosive blew up the plane over locerbie.

It's fairly easy to blow up a plane at a high altitude.  The air pressure difference helps.

It's not impossible to move 40 trucks, but it takes time and effort to load and drive them someplace.  I wouldn't be to surprised it its in the area where it was stored.

[khirkhib]

I wouldn't be surprised if it was spread around the country with various militant groups.

[J. J.]

I wouldn't be surprised if it was spread around the country with various militant groups.

Let's see.  If each man took 50 pounds, you'd only need about 16,600 people to carry it away.

[Citizen James]

1. Amidst the partisan, this will have little effect.  That means you likely won't see anyone here changing their mind.   Most hardcore reps here would vote Bush even if he tatooed 666 on his forehead and started sacrificing goats on the whitehouse lawn.   Most hardcore dems wouldn't support him if he grew wings and a halo.

2. The effect on the general population will probably more signifigant.  If anything, it will highlight the charge Kerry has been making for a while now that we aren't doing enough to secure nuclear materials (I understand these are HE explosives and detonators, not nukes, but the point remains), and could signifigantly hurt Bush if he doesn't do heroic damage control - either disprove it if it didn't happen, or obscusiate it if it did.

3. I doubt it went to S. Korea nor Japan.  Both already have access to the technology to make high explosives, and for that matter nuclear reactors.  Japan, however, is forbiden to make atomic weapons in their constitution (which we essentially wrote for them after WW2).