General Election 2010 Forum Forecasts

[Harry Hayfield]

Quick question Harry - where are you getting the boundaries from?

The really rather excellent Tally Room website run by Ben Raue

[Harry Hayfield]

...Ouch

Ouch as in there's rather too much blue on that map or Where's the red?

[Verily]

Surely you don't think Norman Lamb is going to lose, Harry. If he lost, the Lib Dems would be down in the single digits in terms of seats.

[k-onmmunist]

...Ouch

Ouch as in there's rather too much blue on that map or Where's the red?

Both. I knew East Anglia was very Tory but.. damn.

[You kip if you want to...]

...Ouch

Ouch as in there's rather too much blue on that map or Where's the red?

Both. I knew East Anglia was very Tory but.. damn.

Aren't Labour expected to become the third party down south?

[Harry Hayfield]

Surely you don't think Norman Lamb is going to lose, Harry. If he lost, the Lib Dems would be down in the single digits in terms of seats.

Sorry, that's a mistake (but when you are going through a whole region and only find 3 non Conservatives it's easier to colour them all Con and then go through the non Con wins)

Norfolk North: Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 11.78% over Con

[Harry Hayfield]

The East Midlands


And I think this could be another "Ouch" moment

[Verily]

Bold prediction for Derby North. It shouldn't be better than a toss-up considering the Conservatives' difficulty in finding a candidate and their third-place finish in 2005. (Taking boundary changes into consideration, the 2005 result was 39% Labour, 30% LD, 25% Con.)

Also, the demographics are working against the Conservatives in Nottingham South. I suppose "toss-up" is a reasonable prediction, but it's hard to see the Conservatives actually winning it (unless the boundary changes favor them, I'm not sure what's going on with that).

Also, much as it pains me to admit it, Leicester South is not a toss-up. The Lib Dem strength in Leicester is ebbing away, and it's hard to see them winning more votes than last time, let alone passing Labour.

[afleitch]

I have Loughborough down as one of those seats Labour could keep its claws on regardless of what happens to around it.

I'll try and post something up about Scotland.

[You kip if you want to...]

...I'm pretty confident that Wallasey will be a Labour hold. Hardly a toss-up.

[afleitch]

...I'm pretty confident that Wallasey will be a Labour hold. Hardly a toss-up.

Percentages aside the majority there is what some 9,000? I can easily see that being nibbled into. Luckily for Labour it's Angela Eagle's (somone I have alot of time for) seat

[You kip if you want to...]

...I'm pretty confident that Wallasey will be a Labour hold. Hardly a toss-up.

Percentages aside the majority there is what some 9,000? I can easily see that being nibbled into. Luckily for Labour it's Angela Eagle's (somone I have alot of time for) seat

Yeah, she seems pretty well liked in the constituency.

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency Details
Derby North: Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 3.80%
Leicester South: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour, too close to call
Loughborough: Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 16.10%
Wallasey: Conservative GAIN from Labour, too close to call

[Harry Hayfield]

Scotland




New colour: SNP

[afleitch]

Argyll and Bute is probably an SNP gain given 07 and 09 Euro results, though its the area around Helensburgh and Lomond that will decide who wins it. Aberdeen North I agree is a tossup, but I don't believe that the Lib Dems will win Aberdeen South as they are likely to fall back somewhat. I also agree that the swathe of seats from Stirling through Falkirk down to Linlithgow are toss-ups. Add to that Midlothian and (given local troubles) East Lothian. In all these seats it will be Labour v SNP. The Lib Dems will not win Edinburgh North. The SNP may win Edinburgh East. Edinburgh South is a toss-up but the challengers there will be the Tories. Darling is probably safe in Edinburgh South East. Berwickshire etc will be a Tory gain from the Lib Dems

Glasgow North will be held by Labour but again the challengers here are the SNP. The SNP will also 'challenge' in Glasgow Central (the one seat in Scotland I want Labour to win as a result...) and Glasgow South. Mason may also hold onto their Glasgow East win

[Harry Hayfield]

Argyll and Bute is probably an SNP gain given 07 and 09 Euro results, though its the area around Helensburgh and Lomond that will decide who wins it. Aberdeen North I agree is a tossup, but I don't believe that the Lib Dems will win Aberdeen South as they are likely to fall back somewhat. I also agree that the swathe of seats from Stirling through Falkirk down to Linlithgow are toss-ups. Add to that Midlothian and (given local troubles) East Lothian. In all these seats it will be Labour v SNP. The Lib Dems will not win Edinburgh North. The SNP may win Edinburgh East. Edinburgh South is a toss-up but the challengers there will be the Tories. Darling is probably safe in Edinburgh South East. Berwickshire etc will be a Tory gain from the Lib Dems Glasgow North will be held by Labour but again the challengers here are the SNP. The SNP will also 'challenge' in Glasgow Central (the one seat in Scotland I want Labour to win as a result...) and Glasgow South. Mason may also hold onto their Glasgow East win

These forecasts were orginally done in February (based on the average of the polls in Feb) when the Others (Plaid, SNP, Green, UKIP, BNP, Others) were polling 13% in total. So far in March, the Others are polling 12% with every poll putting the SNP at or slightly below 2005 levels. I realise that the SNP won (for want of a better word) the 2007 Parliament constituency election, the 2007 Parliament regional election and the 2009 European elections but those were all Scottish elections, this is a UK wide election (where I think the SNP will get 10 seats (+4) and no more besides). And I am not just saying that because I'm a Lib Dem!

[Harry Hayfield]

North England

[minionofmidas]

Bold predictions thruout... (needed to get a broader picture, had that feeling since the first one). I'd be surprised if the election really goes that badly for Labour. Though I'm aware there musta been a million people saying the same thing in 1997, an election I remember well but that was before I was internetsavvy. Still. I doubt Labour'll get routed that badly.

[You kip if you want to...]

Bold predictions thruout... (needed to get a broader picture, had that feeling since the first one). I'd be surprised if the election really goes that badly for Labour. Though I'm aware there musta been a million people saying the same thing in 1997, an election I remember well but that was before I was internetsavvy. Still. I doubt Labour'll get routed that badly.

Agreed. They won't get thrashed the way the Tories did in '97. This election is gonna be close to '92 to terms of results I think.

[Phony Moderate]

I wish there was a website with a tool that lets you colour in each constituency individually....

[afleitch]

I wish there was a website with a tool that lets you colour in each constituency individually....

Best I can do

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=2667

[Хahar 🤔]

I wish there was a website with a tool that lets you colour in each constituency individually....

Best I can do

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=2667

It'd be nice if you would add colors for the Northern Irish parties.

[Hash]

I wish there was a website with a tool that lets you colour in each constituency individually....

Best I can do

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=2667

It'd be nice if you would add colors for the Northern Irish parties.

Theoretically, you could only add orange and use it for the DUP, using green for Shinners, red for SDLP and blue for UUP.

[Harry Hayfield]

Northern Ireland



Democratic Unionists
Social Democratic and Labour Party
Sinn Fein
Ulster Conservatives and Unionists

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

...I'm pretty confident that Wallasey will be a Labour hold. Hardly a toss-up.

I'm surprised you have Bolton West and NE down as pretty certain Tory holds.  My gut feeling is that West is too close to call (it's my seat) but Labour should hold NE.

(I actually misread the map and thought you had Wythenshawe down as too close to call!)