General Election 2010 Forum Forecasts
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Author Topic: General Election 2010 Forum Forecasts  (Read 5376 times)
Harry Hayfield
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« on: February 27, 2010, 01:07:14 PM »
« edited: February 28, 2010, 09:27:25 AM by Harry Hayfield »
With the election no less than 3 months away (assuming a June 3rd 2010 Election), I thought it might be an idea to see how accurate we forum members are at forecasting a British election as opposed to an American one. If I may be permitted to lead the way with this offering from the South West of England



Standard party colours (although when I add more regions some colours will need explaining) and white indicates too close to call (which my definition is a forecast majority less than the margin of error in polls which I have set at 3%)
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2010, 06:38:33 AM »
I've got a spreadsheet in the works. I'll also be running the Super Sixty again.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2010, 09:25:21 AM »
Quote from: Benn in 2010 on February 28, 2010, 06:38:33 AM
I've got a spreadsheet in the works. I'll also be running the Super Sixty again.

And to refresh our memories, a Super Sixty is what?
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2010, 09:33:49 AM »
Kudos to Cameron for just calling Nick Griffin a "ghastly piece of filth" and for hailing Sayeeda Warsi.
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k-onmmunist
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2010, 09:39:02 AM »
Quote from: change08 on February 28, 2010, 09:33:49 AM
Kudos to Cameron for just calling Nick Griffin a "ghastly piece of filth" and for hailing Sayeeda Warsi.

Cameron and Griffin are both HPs. Liberal Party '10!
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Franzl
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2010, 09:43:46 AM »
What are the chances of a hung parliament? That would be the most amusing results.
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k-onmmunist
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2010, 09:50:59 AM »
Quote from: SoFA Franzl on February 28, 2010, 09:43:46 AM
What are the chances of a hung parliament? That would be the most amusing results.

Not 100% sure but it's beginning to look increasingly likely. The Tories are shedding alot of points in the polls right now.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2010, 05:04:09 PM »
Quote from: Harry Hayfield on February 28, 2010, 09:25:21 AM
Quote from: Benn in 2010 on February 28, 2010, 06:38:33 AM
I've got a spreadsheet in the works. I'll also be running the Super Sixty again.

And to refresh our memories, a Super Sixty is what?

A seat prediction contest for 60 seats of interest in the election.

Here's the thread I ran last time.
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Verily
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« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2010, 11:50:40 AM »
« Edited: March 01, 2010, 11:53:11 AM by Verily »
Quote from: Senator Dolphins Were Monkeys on February 28, 2010, 09:39:02 AM
Quote from: change08 on February 28, 2010, 09:33:49 AM
Kudos to Cameron for just calling Nick Griffin a "ghastly piece of filth" and for hailing Sayeeda Warsi.

Cameron and Griffin are both HPs. Liberal Party '10!

LOL. You know Steve Radford and the Liberals are way on the left these days, right? Sort of ironic that the party formed because they thought the Social and Liberal Democrats were too much on the left ended up way to the left of either the Lib Dems or Labour.

Edit: Apparently Radford is no longer the leader of the Liberals. No idea about this new Wheway chap.
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k-onmmunist
Winston Disraeli
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2010, 04:40:32 PM »
Quote from: Verily on March 01, 2010, 11:50:40 AM
Quote from: Senator Dolphins Were Monkeys on February 28, 2010, 09:39:02 AM
Quote from: change08 on February 28, 2010, 09:33:49 AM
Kudos to Cameron for just calling Nick Griffin a "ghastly piece of filth" and for hailing Sayeeda Warsi.

Cameron and Griffin are both HPs. Liberal Party '10!

LOL. You know Steve Radford and the Liberals are way on the left these days, right? Sort of ironic that the party formed because they thought the Social and Liberal Democrats were too much on the left ended up way to the left of either the Lib Dems or Labour.

Edit: Apparently Radford is no longer the leader of the Liberals. No idea about this new Wheway chap.

You seem to know alot about British politics... are you British, Verily?

The Liberals are pretty left yeah, but I agree with most of their policies. I'm a moderate on the economy, and far-left on foreign and civil issues.
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Verily
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« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2010, 10:42:30 AM »
Quote from: Senator Dolphins Were Monkeys on March 01, 2010, 04:40:32 PM
Quote from: Verily on March 01, 2010, 11:50:40 AM
Quote from: Senator Dolphins Were Monkeys on February 28, 2010, 09:39:02 AM
Quote from: change08 on February 28, 2010, 09:33:49 AM
Kudos to Cameron for just calling Nick Griffin a "ghastly piece of filth" and for hailing Sayeeda Warsi.

Cameron and Griffin are both HPs. Liberal Party '10!

LOL. You know Steve Radford and the Liberals are way on the left these days, right? Sort of ironic that the party formed because they thought the Social and Liberal Democrats were too much on the left ended up way to the left of either the Lib Dems or Labour.

Edit: Apparently Radford is no longer the leader of the Liberals. No idea about this new Wheway chap.

You seem to know alot about British politics... are you British, Verily?

The Liberals are pretty left yeah, but I agree with most of their policies. I'm a moderate on the economy, and far-left on foreign and civil issues.

No, just interested and try to stay informed.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2010, 11:03:58 AM »
The Continuity Liberals (at least in Liverpool) are just Radford's personality cult these days. It's far from certain that they'll prop up the LibDem administration on the City Council when they lose their majority (again) later this year.
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2010, 04:55:48 PM »
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=2591

Is that Barking you have as a Lab-BNP (I assume) marginal?
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tomm_86
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« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2010, 06:39:31 PM »

Fortunately he has Barking as Labour Smiley Two adjacent seats are (Lab-Con) marginals (Ilford South and Erith and Thamesmead)
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2010, 06:40:48 PM »
Quote from: Tommy Wiseau on March 02, 2010, 06:39:31 PM

Fortunately he has Barking as Labour Smiley Two adjacent seats are (Lab-Con) marginals (Ilford South and Erith and Thamesmead)

Good.

Barking's the one that'll have me on edge on election night. :/
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2010, 07:29:21 PM »
There's no place in England that'll vote BNP. It's not Austria or anything.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2010, 06:57:31 PM »


The old South East region.
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k-onmmunist
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« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2010, 04:08:17 AM »
Quote from: change08 on March 02, 2010, 06:40:48 PM
Quote from: Tommy Wiseau on March 02, 2010, 06:39:31 PM

Fortunately he has Barking as Labour Smiley Two adjacent seats are (Lab-Con) marginals (Ilford South and Erith and Thamesmead)

Good.

Barking's the one that'll have me on edge on election night. :/

Even if the BNP do win, so what? One seat doesn't make the slightest bit of difference.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #18 on: March 05, 2010, 02:36:34 PM »
Greater London



And for clarification:

Labour HOLD Barking with a 14% majority over Conservatives
Ilford South, Erith and Thamesmead Too close to call
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2010, 05:06:30 PM »
Poplar and Limehouse should be tossup, not Tory. Or even better, Labour hold.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2010, 06:28:19 PM »
Quote from: Chandler Woodcock on March 05, 2010, 05:06:30 PM
Poplar and Limehouse should be tossup, not Tory. Or even better, Labour hold.

In that case, tell George Galloway not to stand. His standing splits the Labour vote and allows the Conservatives to win.
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Verily
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« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2010, 06:37:48 PM »
Quote from: Harry Hayfield on March 05, 2010, 06:28:19 PM
Quote from: Chandler Woodcock on March 05, 2010, 05:06:30 PM
Poplar and Limehouse should be tossup, not Tory. Or even better, Labour hold.

In that case, tell George Galloway not to stand. His standing splits the Labour vote and allows the Conservatives to win.

No. His standing makes a Conservative victory a possibility rather than an impossibility. It does not make the Conservatives favored, let alone likely to win.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2010, 11:08:21 AM »
East Anglia (as was)
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andrewteale
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« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2010, 11:28:14 AM »
Quick question Harry - where are you getting the boundaries from?
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k-onmmunist
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« Reply #24 on: March 07, 2010, 11:35:42 AM »

...Ouch
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