blog claims Johnson is "100% in for 2012"

[Mr. Morden]

FWIW, race42008.com (a fairly reliable blog on the race for the 2012 GOP nomination) now says:

http://race42008.com/2010/02/20/gary-johnson-is-in-for-2012/

"Rumblings…a reliable source has told me that Gary Johnson is 100% in for 2012 and that he will be focusing on New Hampshire."

Of course, this is just one blog post, so don't take it to the bank.  Still, thought it was worth mentioning.  Also, Johnson is starting to get a little bit of attention from the MSM and movement conservatives:

http://ouramericainitiative.com/news/political-novelty-or-viable-candidate.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Zarn]

New Hampshire?

He read my fi-con socially moderate/ libertarian playbook. If he goes for Nevada and South Carolina, afterward, how much compensation do you think I can get?

Or maybe it's just common sense.

I think he needs to place 2nd or 3rd in Iowa, which is highly possible. I likely wouldn't vote for Paul (unless the other options are terrible), but I would strongly consider voting for Johnson. He would need to soak up the 2008 Paul vote along with most of the 2008 McCain vote. He should also go after the 2008 Giuliani vote and maybe try to steal some from Romney, too. Paul did well among libertarians and anti-war Republicans. Mac and Giuliani probably go their votes from moderates.

[SvenssonRS]

If he squeezes through the primary and becomes the nominee, I will eat someone's hat. I swear.

[Zarn]

If he squeezes through the primary and becomes the nominee, I will eat someone's hat. I swear.

I just like to speculate. I'm actually quite prepared to leave the GOP, once the primaries are over. Actually, I expect to do just that. Most of the candidates are 'leave the GOP' worthy.

What do you think is the best path?

How about NH, NV, and SC? Maybe have 3rd place or better in MI (where Paul did surprising well, considering) and IA.

The biggest challenge is Florida. After that, it comes down to the 'little' states. If Johnson can have some momentum up to that point, he can easily take a decent amount of these states. Then, it depends on which 'big' states go first. Two of the groups of states are more workable than the 3rd.

[SvenssonRS]

If he squeezes through the primary and becomes the nominee, I will eat someone's hat. I swear.

I just like to speculate. I'm actually quite prepared to leave the GOP, once the primaries are over. Actually, I expect to do just that. Most of the candidates are 'leave the GOP' worthy.

What do you think is the best path?

How about NH, NV, and SC? Maybe have 3rd place or better in MI (where Paul did surprising well, considering) and IA.

The biggest challenge is Florida. After that, it comes down to the 'little' states. If Johnson can have some momentum up to that point, he can easily take a decent amount of these states. Then, it depends on which 'big' states go first. Two of the groups of states are more workable than the 3rd.

New Hampshire does seem to be the best first target. They have a track record of electing mainly moderates and/or centrists, so I could see them going for him, but South Carolina I don't see going for anyone but Palin or Huckabee. Nevada, on the other hand, I think he could pull off if he could overcome Romney's Mormon base. In fact, I think it's foreseeable enough that he would be able to take the entire western part of the country by storm if he got enough momentum. If given the choice, I can tell you right here and now that Wyoming would go to him in a massive landslide. I know the place well.

To be honest, I'm actually fairly optimistic about Johnson's chances and I have been for quite a while. I gave him a 40% chance of winning the nomination a while back, and there was a reason for that.

[TheGreatOne]

Johnson could also take Iowa.  It depends who runs.  Ron Paul received 10% of the vote and Huckabee recevied 34%.  Split Huckabees vote between him, Palin and Thune, and either one might be at 16-20%.  Also, it is possible for Johnson to attract Democrat voters to register Republican and vote for him.  There will not be a competing primary that year. 

[Reluctant Republican]

Time for the for the bimonthly post I make here.

Johnson will never get the Paul vote in my opinion. They're already gearing up for another run, convinced the CPAC win means Paul is suddenly the frontrunner. If Paul runs, as I suspect he will, Johnson won't get much traction. But even if Dr. Paul forgoes a run, that would take alot of the wind out of the sales of the movement. You'd probably see some activism, but I don't see any big moneybombs raising him these millions of dollars. That and the fact that in 2008,Paul was more or less completely unknown until the debates. His response to Giuliani was what first attracted the attention of many people (Myself included.) Now he has some national stature, and while I won't get my hopes up again that he could win the nomination, he at least will be able to raise significant funds early and has a loyal, established, grassroots following.  Johnson would have to do all that again, and I question if he's up to it. After all, Paul endorsed Baldwin, and he did not do so well.  Whereas I think it's safe to say had Paul run himself, he'd have at least gotten 1 or 2% of the vote(Hey, baby steps here.)

I'd prefer Johnson step aside myself. I understand the arguments about "branching out" and making the message about more than just Paul. It also alarms me that assuming he's able to pull it off and get elected senator, Rand Paul would be the logical choice who the torch would be passed too. A dynasty like that alarms many, and would contribute to the perception that the Libertarian movement in the GOP is dedicated to Paul above all.

But facing reality, I honestly don't think Gary Johnson or Ron Paul will be elected president in 2012. So I'd prefer to give one last hurrah to the man who, love him or hate him, gave rise to much of the stuff we're seeing in the GOP now. And in the end, if he can send a bigger message then Johnson by raising more money and doing better in the primaries, so much the better.

[California8429]

not news to me

[Zarn]

Time for the for the bimonthly post I make here.

Johnson will never get the Paul vote in my opinion. They're already gearing up for another run, convinced the CPAC win means Paul is suddenly the frontrunner. If Paul runs, as I suspect he will, Johnson won't get much traction. But even if Dr. Paul forgoes a run, that would take alot of the wind out of the sales of the movement. You'd probably see some activism, but I don't see any big moneybombs raising him these millions of dollars. That and the fact that in 2008,Paul was more or less completely unknown until the debates. His response to Giuliani was what first attracted the attention of many people (Myself included.) Now he has some national stature, and while I won't get my hopes up again that he could win the nomination, he at least will be able to raise significant funds early and has a loyal, established, grassroots following.  Johnson would have to do all that again, and I question if he's up to it. After all, Paul endorsed Baldwin, and he did not do so well.  Whereas I think it's safe to say had Paul run himself, he'd have at least gotten 1 or 2% of the vote(Hey, baby steps here.)

I'd prefer Johnson step aside myself. I understand the arguments about "branching out" and making the message about more than just Paul. It also alarms me that assuming he's able to pull it off and get elected senator, Rand Paul would be the logical choice who the torch would be passed too. A dynasty like that alarms many, and would contribute to the perception that the Libertarian movement in the GOP is dedicated to Paul above all.

But facing reality, I honestly don't think Gary Johnson or Ron Paul will be elected president in 2012. So I'd prefer to give one last hurrah to the man who, love him or hate him, gave rise to much of the stuff we're seeing in the GOP now. And in the end, if he can send a bigger message then Johnson by raising more money and doing better in the primaries, so much the better.

He would get the Paul vote. They aren't going to sit around and do nothing. Johnson is a successful former governor. Nothing to sneeze at.

[Speaker Perez]

nominating Gary Johnson or Ron Paul for the republican nomination would be a tragic mistake for the republicans and Obama would easily win re-election. just like 64

[Zarn]

nominating Gary Johnson or Ron Paul for the republican nomination would be a tragic mistake for the republicans and Obama would easily win re-election. just like 64

Is it 1964?

I remember when putting up someone like Obama would be suicide for the 'Crats.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

nominating Gary Johnson or Ron Paul for the republican nomination would be a tragic mistake for the republicans and Obama would easily win re-election. just like 64

Is it 1964?

I remember when putting up someone like Obama would be suicide for the 'Crats.

LOL, imagine either party putting Obama up on the ticket in 1964.

So yeah, that point holds no merit.

[useful idiot]

nominating Gary Johnson or Ron Paul for the republican nomination would be a tragic mistake for the republicans and Obama would easily win re-election. just like 64

If I was a Republican I'd happily take a Paul victory in the primaries and a 64 style defeat in the general. You do understand that Goldwater was the basis for the conservative movement for 35 years after that, right? They may have taken it in a strange direction in a lot of cases, but the fact remains, his is probably the most influential failed candidacy of all time.

If Paul even came close to the nomination, at the very least it would be nothing less than an earthquake across this country. If he won then politics in the U.S. as we know it is gone for forever and we'll have something almost completely new. He wouldn't be just another forgotten candidate like Dukakis...

Even if you're a Democrat, it would be one hell of a show, one for the ages. If he runs I'll vote for him in the primary.

[ScottM]

I'm not at all surprised that he's "in." That has seemed very obvious for months. I don't think he'll have any serious success, though. I know he'll be going for the Ron Paul vote, and I don't think he can stir up the excitement that Ron Paul could. After all, I've heard him described as being as exciting as watching paint dry more than once.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Johnson and Paul won't run against each other.

And the chances of scoring an upset win in New Hampshire are not so bad.