PPP: Huckabee 1st in 2012 North Carolina GOP primary

[Tender Branson]

Huckabee: 33%
Palin: 27%
Romney: 25%

PPP surveyed 646 likely Republican primary voters from February 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey it’s +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_218.pdf

[Poundingtherock]

If Romney is third with Palin and Huckabee splitting the votes, it's tough to see how he doesn't lose non-Deep South states such as North Carolina by a healthy margin (McCain came within 4 of Huckabee in these states).

In a one-on-one, Romney probably loses by 15 to both Palin or Huckabee and by the time, the Southern primaries come around, he'll be in a one-on-one with either Palin or Huckabee.

[TheGreatOne]

Romney should not be this close in North Carolina.  I think Huckabee and Palin are just going to take votes away from each other.  Bring Thune into the equation and the moderate (Non-religious, Economically conservative) Republicans will be able to rally around another canidate.

[Poundingtherock]

Huh?  Palin and Huckabee are already taking votes from each other and he's in third place.

The only way he benefits from Palin and Huckabee taking votes from each other is if he's leading, not trailing both of them.

In the event that one of them doesn't run, he'd lose this state quite easily when McCain was able to keep defeats to Huckabee in Deep South states by under 5 points and North Carolina isn't a deep south state.

It's pretty clear that either palin or huckabee would win NC by double digits against Romney.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney may very well be doomed in all Southern primaries, aside from those on the fringes of "The South" like Florida.  Of course, it's possible to win without winning those states, just like it would be possible for Huckabee or Palin to win without the Northeast.

I mean, if Romney were to win all the states he won in 2008 plus all the non-Southern McCain states, he wins the nom. easily.

[Poundingtherock]

True.

I hope we get a Florida poll soon.

PPP is polling New Mexico and Texas this weekend.

[TheGreatOne]

Huh?  Palin and Huckabee are already taking votes from each other and he's in third place.

The only way he benefits from Palin and Huckabee taking votes from each other is if he's leading, not trailing both of them.

In the event that one of them doesn't run, he'd lose this state quite easily when McCain was able to keep defeats to Huckabee in Deep South states by under 5 points and North Carolina isn't a deep south state.

It's pretty clear that either palin or huckabee would win NC by double digits against Romney.

I am assuming that Huckabee and Palin are both vying for Christian Conservatives and far-right in the Deep South, and I will use Tennessee and South Carolina to display why I think you should be worried that Romney is basically within striking distance of Palin and Huckabee.  Huckabee never competed in Virginia and North Carolina, so I can’t use those states as examples of what I’m talking about.  His campaign was basically over after February 4.  

Huckabee received 30% of the vote in the South Carolina primary. He lost because Fred Thompson took away lots of vote from him. The Far-right Christian Republican vote was split between the two and this allowed McCain to beat Huckabee by a mere 15,000 votes.  McCain’s victory in New Hampshire also helped him bring together the moderate Republicans in South Carolina.  In addition, there were many voters who were split between Mitt Romney and Huckabee in South Carolina.  Many experts on CNN and Fox commented on this.  

Huckabee won in Tennessee with 34% of the vote, but it was only a slight victory against McCain.  Again, many experts commented that Huckabee and Romney had lost a few states that night because they were taking votes away from each other.  Voters saw them as more religious and far-right than McCain.  Romney received 23% of the vote.

McCain was a moderate who would have had a difficult time beating Huckabee, Thompson and Romney if they hadn’t split the vote.  Huckabee, Thompson and Romney accounted for over 60% in South Carolina and 60% in Tennessee.  Had the Christian and far-right vote been able to decide on a candidate after New Hampshire, McCain probably wouldn’t have won South Carolina, which basically launched his campaign to victory.  

Palin and Huckabee might split up the vote in states like Iowa and South Carolina.  They won’t win in New Hampshire or Nevada.  This puts them at risk of losing to Romney in all four states.  Add Thune to the equation and this North Carolina poll might have looked closer.  It’s just something to think about.  I know you like both Huckabee and Palin, but I think they’re at risk if both of them run.  JMHO

[Poundingtherock]

Greatone,

But you are neglecting the fact that Romney is losing to both of them with the vote split.  So even if you assume that they are taking votes from each other, it doesn't matter as Romney is still losing.

The only way for Romney to benefit from Palin and Huckabee hypothetically taking votes from each other is if he leading, not trailing both of them.

And in the more likely hypothetical where only one of them is running, Romney would be losing by 10-15 points because both have a pretty good percentage with the vote already being split.

In order for your theory to work, we'd need to see something like Romney 31 Huckabee 28 Palin 24.  However, we see Huckabee 33 Palin 27 Romney 25, meaning that Romney still would lose with a split vote.

[Poundingtherock]

By the way, where is Palin's vote coming from?  Is she taking some of Huckabee and Romney's conservative supporters from last time and taking some of McCain's conservative support?

[ej2mm15]

Republican primaries so far red romney, blue huckabee

[Eraserhead]

Republican primaries so far red romney, blue huckabee

Good idea!

[Poundingtherock]

Has there been a Nevada poll?  If not, why shade it red for Romney?

[TheGreatOne]

Greatone,

But you are neglecting the fact that Romney is losing to both of them with the vote split.  So even if you assume that they are taking votes from each other, it doesn't matter as Romney is still losing.

The only way for Romney to benefit from Palin and Huckabee hypothetically taking votes from each other is if he leading, not trailing both of them.

And in the more likely hypothetical where only one of them is running, Romney would be losing by 10-15 points because both have a pretty good percentage with the vote already being split.

In order for your theory to work, we'd need to see something like Romney 31 Huckabee 28 Palin 24.  However, we see Huckabee 33 Palin 27 Romney 25, meaning that Romney still would lose with a split vote.

I stated that Romney is within striking distance.  He’s only down by 8 in a state that greatly favors Huckabee and Palin.  If the vote wasn’t split between Palin and Huckabee, one of them would have 40-50%.  Just like Romney could win Nevada by 40+.  The demographics in that state favor him.  I am merely theorizing that it is possible for Romney to win the first 4 states with Palin and Huckabee vying for the same voters.  I believe North Carolina is similar to South Carolina in demographics and geography.  You basically get what I’m saying in your third paragraph where you say, “where only one of them is running, Romney would be losing by 10-15 points.”  Almost my exact beliefs.

[ej2mm15]

Has there been a Nevada poll?  If not, why shade it red for Romney?

Nevada???  Nevadas not shaded, utah and newhampshire are shaded for romney

[TheGreatOne]

Has there been a Nevada poll?  If not, why shade it red for Romney?

Nevada???  Nevadas not shaded, utah and newhampshire are shaded for romney

I think he's saying that there has been a poll in Nevada, but I don't really know which one he's talking about.

[Poundingtherock]

Ooops, my mistake.  I looked at Utah and thought Nevada.

[Derek]

Huckabee would be strong in the south again. Romney in the northeast and west. Palin would be strongest in the west and midwest due to being in a younger family and having that small town connection.

[Psychic Octopus]

Huckabee would be strong in the south again. Romney in the northeast and west. Palin would be strongest in the west and midwest due to being in a younger family and having that small town connection.

Not on the west coast, maybe in the Plain states, though.

[Poundingtherock]

The Oregon GOP electorate is very conservative.