For fun: 2012...

[zachman]

He won't beat Hillary. Although he could run for pres. against Hillary in 08 and win in the exact same way that Lincoln beat Douglas.

[YRABNNRM]

Giul;ianik said he will run in 2006 against Hillary in which case he could run as Senator Giuliani. If he did not get the seat he could still run, and maybe win as Former Mayor Giuliani.

As far as I know, Giuliani hasnt announced anything yet, if you know something I dont please fill me in.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I'm always surprised and saddened when I see that NJ has dropped below Georgia and North Carolina. I guess it is because I don't know anyone from those two Southern states. Idaho will gain an electoral vote (look at its rate of growth, isn't it nonsense!, and Rhode Island and West Virginia will lose 1 either by 2010 or 2020.

NJ didn't lose a house seat even when the 2 states bordering it both lost 2.  I don't see any drop in new people coming to the state.  I think NJ is more likely to gain a seat than lose one.  Alot of people still move here.  

[classical liberal]

My modified 2012:

[zachman]

The question towards the changes is when will the labor, blue collar vote leave the Democrats, and what non-democratic states will become dominated by the secular and college educated. I think you are right about the Southwest. I think the Western South will go Republican, and the growing South (Virginia, NC, Georgia, and especially Florida) will become more democratic. The upper midwest will stay democratic, but less so, and the traditional midwest (Iowa, Missouri, WV and Ohio) will shift Republican.

[Beet]

RWN, I have to respectfully disagree with some of the apportionment, though your map looks good. Nevada is the number one growing state in the union by far, and is set to pick up at least 2, possibly 3 electoral votes in the 2010 Census. It certainly is growing faster than New Mexico, which is actually growing at a rate about equal to the national growth rate. New Hampshire and Maine are growing at about the national average so will probably stay at 4. California's growth is slowing and it won't do any better relative to the national average in the 2000's as compared to the 1990's. New York may go down to 29 as it's one of the slowest growing states. Other than that, looks good.

[classical liberal]

My modified 2012:

[Gustaf]

RWN, what do the colours represent?

[zachman]

Like NJ, and Pennsylvania, Connecticut is losing fast.

[classical liberal]

The colors are a confidence map.  Dark=string light=lean gray=tossup blue=GOP red=Dem.

[Gustaf]

The colors are a confidence map.  Dark=string light=lean gray=tossup blue=GOP red=Dem.

So does that mean that you think Texas will be a tossup by 2012? That map looks like a Democratic revolutiuon then.

[classical liberal]

I think that the GOP probably can take TX as well as take MO, MN, IA, WV, GA, NC, FL, and VA but those states won't be guarantied like the Northeast will be or the Dems.

[Gustaf]

I think that the GOP probably can take TX as well as take MO, MN, IA, WV, GA, NC, FL, and VA but those states won't be guarantied like the Northeast will be or the Dems.

Well, your map has the following stats:

Strong EVs: Dems 210-Reps 28

Lean EVs: Dems 64-Reps 65

Subtotal: Dems 274-Reps 83

That does seem to give the Dems a slight edge, wouldn't you say?

[Ben.]

   …in the future though states such as GA, FL, NC, VA and SC will probably trend towards the DNC as people move to them from the Midwest (same with NV, CO, NM and AZ) and lots of OAP's will be retiring there to ... but the GOP will not be so unadaptive as to be uncompetitive in these states in the future they'll just adapt and the states will become much more competitive than they are now... as manufacturing jobs in the Midwest decline and these families move to the east coast and the south west i would imagine that states such as MN, IA and MI will trend towards the GOP and their voting patterns may become more like the Dakotas and Indiana as they become more rural and their populations decline WI and IL have diversified a great deal and while DNC dominance will probably decrease and the states will become more competitive in the future I doubt it will be on the same scale as in MN, IA and MI....but in conclusion I would imagine that while the amount of electoral votes in the Midwest will decline the number of electoral votes in the south east and south west will increase and these states will become far more competive while at the same time Texas (where by 2010 most people's first language will be Spanish) will become much more competitive...    

[classical liberal]

Well, your map has the following stats:

Strong EVs: Dems 210-Reps 28

Lean EVs: Dems 64-Reps 65

Subtotal: Dems 274-Reps 83

That does seem to give the Dems a slight edge, wouldn't you say?

Check your math.

[elcorazon]

After 8 years of Kerry, in 2012 our new president will be Barak Obama, America's first black president.

[dunn]

After 8 years of Kerry, in 2012 our new president will be Barak Obama, America's first black president.

after 8 years of Kerry it might be Osama not Obama

[Ben.]

After 8 years of Kerry, in 2012 our new president will be Barak Obama, America's first black president.

after 8 years of Kerry it might be Osama not Obama

Grow up....those kinda comments are beneath you dunn...

[dunn]

After 8 years of Kerry, in 2012 our new president will be Barak Obama, America's first black president.

after 8 years of Kerry it might be Osama not Obama

Grow up....those kinda comments are beneath you dunn...

I geuss you are right
sorry
:

[Ben.]

Didnt mean to be too harsh but somtimes the slanging match between Dems and Reps gets me down...dont know what i was expecting it is election year after all...but back to Obama who i kinda like...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

After a landslide victory in 2008 against Clinton/Breaux , President Rudy Giuliani enjoys 70-93% approval ratings for a good solid time.

I don't think Giuliani will even be *alive* in 2012.

[Ben.]

After a landslide victory in 2008 against Clinton/Breaux , President Rudy Giuliani enjoys 70-93% approval ratings for a good solid time.

I don't think Giuliani will even be *alive* in 2012.

Don't worry the whole senario that Reagan fan has sketched out is Republican partisan wish fulfillment...and i've said as much in some very long posts further down the thread...

If Kerry loses in November then It’ll be Rendell/ Ford in 2008 beating something like Frist/ Santorum …. Ahh, four years and an election away and I’m already trying to predict the ticket and the outcome…but look further down the thread and you’ll see my reasoning…  

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

After a landslide victory in 2008 against Clinton/Breaux , President Rudy Giuliani enjoys 70-93% approval ratings for a good solid time.

I don't think Giuliani will even be *alive* in 2012.

Don't worry the whole senario that Reagan fan has sketched out is Republican partisan wish fulfillment...and i've said as much in some very long posts further down the thread...

If Kerry loses in November then It’ll be Rendell/ Ford in 2008 beating something like Frist/ Santorum …. Ahh, four years and an election away and I’m already trying to predict the ticket and the outcome…but look further down the thread and you’ll see my reasoning…  

mheh.  Santorum would doom any ticket.  While we're on the subject of wild predictions, mine for 2008 is Condoleeza Rice/Susan Collins over Hillary Clinton/Nancy Pelosi.

[Ben.]

After a landslide victory in 2008 against Clinton/Breaux , President Rudy Giuliani enjoys 70-93% approval ratings for a good solid time.

I don't think Giuliani will even be *alive* in 2012.

Don't worry the whole senario that Reagan fan has sketched out is Republican partisan wish fulfillment...and i've said as much in some very long posts further down the thread...

If Kerry loses in November then It’ll be Rendell/ Ford in 2008 beating something like Frist/ Santorum …. Ahh, four years and an election away and I’m already trying to predict the ticket and the outcome…but look further down the thread and you’ll see my reasoning…  

mheh.  Santorum would doom any ticket.  While we're on the subject of wild predictions, mine for 2008 is Condoleeza Rice/Susan Collins over Hillary Clinton/Nancy Pelosi.

Err…hate to disagree…but I wouldn’t count on either…I for one would not vote for Hillary in a primary sure I might well vote for her in the general but not in the primary and personally I doubt she will run…where Kerry defeated, the Dems would probably retake congress in 06 and I am pretty sure that Ed Rendell would run in 08 and get the nomination with Harold Ford as his VP (Ford by then probably being a Senator)… I doubt that Bill Owens or Santorum (both of whom would do well amongst the GOP grassroots) would run and it would probably be between Bill Frist, George Pataki and some right-winger we’ve never heard of… out of those I’d say Frist wins…and gets a solidly conservative running mate…probably from the Midwest a younger version of Phil Crane perhaps…      

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

After a landslide victory in 2008 against Clinton/Breaux , President Rudy Giuliani enjoys 70-93% approval ratings for a good solid time.

I don't think Giuliani will even be *alive* in 2012.

Don't worry the whole senario that Reagan fan has sketched out is Republican partisan wish fulfillment...and i've said as much in some very long posts further down the thread...

If Kerry loses in November then It’ll be Rendell/ Ford in 2008 beating something like Frist/ Santorum …. Ahh, four years and an election away and I’m already trying to predict the ticket and the outcome…but look further down the thread and you’ll see my reasoning…  

mheh.  Santorum would doom any ticket.  While we're on the subject of wild predictions, mine for 2008 is Condoleeza Rice/Susan Collins over Hillary Clinton/Nancy Pelosi.

Err…hate to disagree…but I wouldn’t count on either…I for one would not vote for Hillary in a primary sure I might well vote for her in the general but not in the primary and personally I doubt she will run…where Kerry defeated, the Dems would probably retake congress in 06 and I am pretty sure that Ed Rendell would run in 08 and get the nomination with Harold Ford as his VP (Ford by then probably being a Senator)… I doubt that Bill Owens or Santorum (both of whom would do well amongst the GOP grassroots) would run and it would probably be between Bill Frist, George Pataki and some right-winger we’ve never heard of… out of those I’d say Frist wins…and gets a solidly conservative running mate…probably from the Midwest a younger version of Phil Crane perhaps…      

If Kerry loses, Edwards will get the nomination in 2008, no doubt.  Democrats will realize who they should've nominated 4 years ago.