For fun: 2012...

[Reaganfan]

After a landslide victory in 2008 against Clinton/Breaux , President Rudy Giuliani enjoys 70-93% approval ratings for a good solid time. Democrats still have lost the House and Senate, and want to get a Democrat in the White House. It does not look good though. Giuliani launces his Re-election campaign while holding 86% ratings. The contenders to the Democratic nomination are:

Senator Evan Bayh (IN)
Governor Brad Henry (OK)
Governor Bob Wise (WV)
Senator Joe Biden (DE)
Senator Patty Murray (WA)
Senator John Edwards (NC)

In Iowa, Bayh wins first place, Biden second, and Edwards third. Patty Murray drops out that night.

New Hampshire brings Edwards in first, Biden second, and Henry third.

By Super Tuesday, only Bayh, Biden, and Edwards are left. Edwards and Biden are almost tied with Bayh being well below. Soon, Bayh drops out, but wins three stright primaries! Talks of an Edwards-Bayh ticket are widespread like how Kerry-Edwards was in 2004. (Kerry chose Bill Richardson and lost to Bush/Cheney) Biden pulls out the nomination in a tight race against Edwards. Polls show Biden would beat Giuliani 51 to 49%. In two months, President Giuliani gets a major lead over Senator Biden at 60 to 40%. Giuliani decides to keep Vice President Rice on his ticket after talk of dropping her for rising star Mike Huckabee. Joe Biden chooses Governor Jim Doyle of Wisconsin as his running mate. In the debates, Giuliani wins all three. In the VP debates, it is a general tie with Rice a little higher. On election night, Biden recieves 200 votes to Giuliani's 338. Giuliani is re-elected 44th President of the United States. What does 2016 hold?

[© tweed]

How do you do the eV totals, you don't even know what they will be.

[elcorazon]

you are certifiable.  settle down beavis.

[Ben.]

Regan fan...its a pretty big leap to talk about Giuliani landslides in 08... it really doubt it will happen... 9/11 will be long gone in the public memory... and lets be blunt Giuliani has two things to recommend him 1.) His Law and order policies in NY and 2.) his reaction to 9/11 over than that I really don’t see much to recommend him and on top of that he's way to liberal to get the GOP nomination...so I really don’t think your scenario is very valid...added to that even if she runs Clinton wont get the DEM nomination... if he runs Rendell will probably get it and he would probably win after eight years of Bush that outside of the war on terror would be seen as pretty mediocre...

Where Breaux to ever win the DEM nomination (we should be so lucky!)…he would sweep the south in much the same way as Carter did in 1976…I strongly doubt he would ever run with Hillary, the gulf between them is just way too wide for them to be compatible more likely if (in what I see as the unlikely event that Hillary went for the Dem nomination) and she picked a southern running mate she’d probably go for Harold Ford (who’ll by then most likely be a senator as Bill Frist is retiring in 2006)… looking forward to Senator Ford, need to hear more from the guy but seems to be a good moderate yet pragmatic DLC’er plus he’s southern and black what more do you need in an ideal candidate?... but I digress…        

[WalterMitty]

how old will joe biden be in 2012?

[zachman]

Joe Biden's won't go for the presidency again. I predict millitary issues will decline steadily until 2012.

[opebo]

Regan fan...its a pretty big leap to talk about Giuliani landslides in 08... it really doubt it will happen... 9/11 will be long gone in the public memory... and lets be blunt Giuliani has two things to recommend him 1.) His Law and order policies in NY and 2.) his reaction to 9/11 over than that I really don’t see much to recommend him and on top of that he's way to liberal to get the GOP nomination...so I really don’t think your scenario is very valid...added to that even if she runs Clinton wont get the DEM nomination... if he runs Rendell will probably get it and he would probably win after eight years of Bush that outside of the war on terror would be seen as pretty mediocre...

Where Breaux to ever win the DEM nomination (we should be so lucky!)…he would sweep the south in much the same way as Carter did in 1976…I strongly doubt he would ever run with Hillary, the gulf between them is just way too wide for them to be compatible more likely if (in what I see as the unlikely event that Hillary went for the Dem nomination) and she picked a southern running mate she’d probably go for Harold Ford (who’ll by then most likely be a senator as Bill Frist is retiring in 2006)… looking forward to Senator Ford, need to hear more from the guy but seems to be a good moderate yet pragmatic DLC’er plus he’s southern and black what more do you need in an ideal candidate?... but I digress…        

Ford will be unlikely to get a Tennessee senate seat unless he switches parties.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

2012?

Vice President Edwards enjoys an easy ride to the nomination, beating out his only contender, Dennis Kucinich.  

Since he is the greatest canidate the dems have ever put up to run, he wins on election night with 56% of the popular vote, and loses only Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, South/North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Alaska.  Oh yes, his running mate is that young congressman dude from tennessee, he's cool.  

[Ben.]

 

Regan fan...its a pretty big leap to talk about Giuliani landslides in 08... it really doubt it will happen... 9/11 will be long gone in the public memory... and lets be blunt Giuliani has two things to recommend him 1.) His Law and order policies in NY and 2.) his reaction to 9/11 over than that I really don’t see much to recommend him and on top of that he's way to liberal to get the GOP nomination...so I really don’t think your scenario is very valid...added to that even if she runs Clinton wont get the DEM nomination... if he runs Rendell will probably get it and he would probably win after eight years of Bush that outside of the war on terror would be seen as pretty mediocre...

Where Breaux to ever win the DEM nomination (we should be so lucky!)…he would sweep the south in much the same way as Carter did in 1976…I strongly doubt he would ever run with Hillary, the gulf between them is just way too wide for them to be compatible more likely if (in what I see as the unlikely event that Hillary went for the Dem nomination) and she picked a southern running mate she’d probably go for Harold Ford (who’ll by then most likely be a senator as Bill Frist is retiring in 2006)… looking forward to Senator Ford, need to hear more from the guy but seems to be a good moderate yet pragmatic DLC’er plus he’s southern and black what more do you need in an ideal candidate?... but I digress…        

Ford will be unlikely to get a Tennessee senate seat unless he switches parties.

Ford is way to far to the left even though he's DLC to switch to the GOP, I recon with his moderate and independent record he'll be a very strong candidate when Bill Frist retires... remember that the Dems took the Governorship in 2002 with a DLC'er I recon especially if Bush is re-elected and the Dems probably retake the House and the Senate in 2006 Ford would easily get nominated and elected comfortably...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh yes, his running mate is that young congressman dude from tennessee, he's cool.  

Lincon Davis? Or do you mean Harold Ford jr?

[Ben.]

Anybody else here see Harold Ford as a real future star of the party?... I think the guy may well go all the way... by 2012, 2016 or even 2020 I think it very likely we may have a president Ford...from my perspective he may be the most exciting of the young Dem politicians to have emerged in recent time... GO Harold!

[© tweed]

Anybody else here see Harold Ford as a real future star of the party?... I think the guy may well go all the way... by 2012, 2016 or even 2020 I think it very likely we may have a president Ford...from my perspective he may be the most exciting of the young Dem politicians to have emerged in recent time... GO Harold!

Yes, I actually have a Edwards/ford Administration taking hold in 2008.

[Reaganfan]

Anybody else here see Harold Ford as a real future star of the party?... I think the guy may well go all the way... by 2012, 2016 or even 2020 I think it very likely we may have a president Ford...from my perspective he may be the most exciting of the young Dem politicians to have emerged in recent time... GO Harold!

Yes, I actually have a Edwards/ford Administration taking hold in 2008.

So you expect Bush to win again?

[CTguy]

Giuliani wouldn't even win NY state, nor any other state in the northeast.  Nor do I think he would win a Republican Presidential Primary, considering he is Pro-choice and pro gay civil unions.  

[Reaganfan]

Giuliani would win NY.

[HoopsCubs]

After a landslide victory in 2008 against Clinton/Breaux , President Rudy Giuliani enjoys 70-93% approval ratings for a good solid time. Democrats still have lost the House and Senate, and want to get a Democrat in the White House. It does not look good though. Giuliani launces his Re-election campaign while holding 86% ratings. The contenders to the Democratic nomination are:

Senator Evan Bayh (IN)
Governor Brad Henry (OK)
Governor Bob Wise (WV)
Senator Joe Biden (DE)
Senator Patty Murray (WA)
Senator John Edwards (NC)

In Iowa, Bayh wins first place, Biden second, and Edwards third. Patty Murray drops out that night.

New Hampshire brings Edwards in first, Biden second, and Henry third.

By Super Tuesday, only Bayh, Biden, and Edwards are left. Edwards and Biden are almost tied with Bayh being well below. Soon, Bayh drops out, but wins three stright primaries! Talks of an Edwards-Bayh ticket are widespread like how Kerry-Edwards was in 2004. (Kerry chose Bill Richardson and lost to Bush/Cheney) Biden pulls out the nomination in a tight race against Edwards. Polls show Biden would beat Giuliani 51 to 49%. In two months, President Giuliani gets a major lead over Senator Biden at 60 to 40%. Giuliani decides to keep Vice President Rice on his ticket after talk of dropping her for rising star Mike Huckabee. Joe Biden chooses Governor Jim Doyle of Wisconsin as his running mate. In the debates, Giuliani wins all three. In the VP debates, it is a general tie with Rice a little higher. On election night, Biden recieves 200 votes to Giuliani's 338. Giuliani is re-elected 44th President of the United States. What does 2016 hold?

Your general ignorance and flip flopping on this site is only matched on this thread by your blind name dropping and total ignorance of the future shaping of the Democratic Party.   Bob Wise?  Patty Murray?     Give me a break?   Why would 2 "uncharismatic dim bulbs" be in the running for the Presidency?   And, Joe Biden?  He'll be close to 70 in 2012.    Just analyze your own party.  For fun, indeed.


 

[Ben.]

I agree this is a very flawed analysis of both the Democratic Party and the GOP… Giuliani will most likely be off the radar screen by 2012…the potential dems seem to either be Washington has-beens or alternatively Governors who exude very little charisma…of the Dems mentioned only Edwards, Bayh and Biden have what it takes to even run for the Democratic nomination and I doubt that Biden will do so he will be too old by then and probably looking to retirement…unless he has been Kerry’s VP or elected NC governor or to some other office Edwards wont be a factor any longer while Bayh sadly will still probably be a dull moderate…


I doubt that Giuliani would hold such astronomical approval ratings…I doubt any president could ever hope to hold such ratings for any length of time…furthermore I would imagine that the Republicans will not retain control of either the House and the Senate for all that time…were Bush re-elected in 2006 It would be highly likely IMHO that the Democrats would retake the senate and possibly the house, on the back of what will be a still ballooning deficit which will by then be forcing Bush into massive cuts in social security that will not go down very well at all while at the same time Bush will be refusing to either raise taxes or accept cuts in areas such as defence…by 2008 while Bush will be seen to have competently handled the war on terror (if in rather a buccaneering way) his economic record will be seen as very disappointing and opinion polls will bare this out…GOP heavy weights such as the popular Bill Owens and the conservative Rick Santorum decide against entering the race for the GOP nomination leaving Bill Frist, George Pataki and the previously obscure Georgia congressman John Linder  who challenged both the liberal Pataki and the more conservative Frist from the right…after a tough fight where Linder acted for a time as a spoiler in the early contests often denying Frist victories over Pataki by winning over the support of staunchly conservative republican primary goers and despite Pataki’s appeal amongst independent voters Frist eventually was able to clinch the GOP nomination…The Democratic contest was far less crowded than many had predicted, in early 2007 Senator Russ Feingold announced that he would run for the Democratic nomination and he was quickly followed by Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell other potential candidates refrained from entering the race including the other two potential moderate (DLC) candidates senator Evan Bayh and Harold Ford who both endorsed Rendell, Senate majority leader Chris Dodd also decided against a run for the nomination after publicly toying with the notion as did Florida Senator Bill Nelson…aside from Feingold and Rendell the son of the maverick activist Jesse Jackson jr decided to make a run for the nomination as well while Congressman Denis Kucinich again decided to run another vanity campaign for the nomination… In the Iowa caucus despite his base in the DLC Rendell had solidified the majority of the Unions behind his candidacy and won the caucus however Feingold was able to pull off a surprise win in New Hampshire two weeks latter…as the campaign moved south Jesse Jackson pulled off massive upsets in Georgia and Mississippi while Rendell was able to pull off a narrow win in South Carolina and a more substantive win in Tennessee moving north again a week latter Rendell won in Michigan and Minnesota while Feingold won in Maine, after losses in a string of northern states Jackson withdrew and endorsed Feingold, Feingold was able to pull off further wins in his native Wisconsin and Oregon and Washington states while Rendell pulled off further southern wins as well as victories in West Virginia, Arizona and New Mexico…however with Super Tuesday Rendell was able to cement a clear lead and while Feingold did not drop out for a further two weeks Rendell continued to extend his lead even further until after the Texas and Louisiana Primaries which Rendell won in twin landslides Feingold announced his withdrawal and endorsement of Rendell…

Having received the Democratic nomination Rendell selected the young Senator Harold Ford of Tennessee as his running mate and soon the Democratic ticket was leading the prospective GOP ticket of former senator Frist and Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota by several points and while that lead never extended to a landslide majority it remained solid and Frist remained unable to gain the momentum to over take Rendell and Ford and on election day Rendell secured a solid victory over his GOP opponents with 285 electoral votes to 253 for Frist/ Pawlenty…              

[classical liberal]

2012 will be after the next census.  I think the reapportionment will put the EC like this:

[Ben.]

Could you just break that down for me a little bit...just a colour coder or somthing...thanks
 

[Reaganfan]

If Giuliani is president in 2008, he will not be out of the light.

[Gustaf]

Counting Bush and Gore states, that would make the EV stands:

Bush: 281

Gore: 259

Not much of a change then. Also, it would be a transfer away from current safe states, with KS, NE, OK, AL, MS, IN losing on the Rep side and MA, ME, CT, NJ losing on the Dem side.

[zachman]

I'm always surprised and saddened when I see that NJ has dropped below Georgia and North Carolina. I guess it is because I don't know anyone from those two Southern states. Idaho will gain an electoral vote (look at its rate of growth, isn't it nonsense!, and Rhode Island and West Virginia will lose 1 either by 2010 or 2020.

[Reaganfan]

How does this sound? In 2008 either:
Giuliani/Rice
Giuliani/McCain
McCain/Rice
McCain/Giuliani
McCain/Huckabee
Huckabee/McCain

Which one sounds best?

[Ben.]

How does this sound? In 2008 either:
Giuliani/Rice
Giuliani/McCain
McCain/Rice
McCain/Giuliani
McCain/Huckabee
Huckabee/McCain

Which one sounds best?

I really doubt any of those will be contenders at a presidential level in 2008...McCain will be too old, Rice could have run against Boxer and decided against it and doesn’t seem to have any ambitions to elected office, Huckabee just doesn’t seem to aspire to a national office (but then that’s my opinion)....the likes of Pataki, Frist, Owens and Santorum (maybe McCain as well but with Pataki in the race I don’t see him entering the race) are the really big contenders as it appears now…no doubt some candidates who are fairly obscure at the moment will also come to the fore as potential Presidential nominees for the GOP but I doubt that Huckabee, Rice, Guilliani or McCain will be amongst them….

Also yeah Giuliani would be in the lime light where he president in 08 but how’s that going to happen…is America going to elect a major?...or is Giuliani going to run against Hillary in 2006 (which would be a tougher fight for Ruddy than many realise) and after that how does a pro-choice, liberal republican gain the republican nomination? Added to this come 2006 Spitzer will be running for Governor and it’s highly likely that he will bulldoze the opposition against that backdrop, Giuliani’s great moment during 9/11 will seem even more distant and added to that what made him a bad candidate and a bad campaigner in 2000 will still be there in 2006 and this time Hillary will be the incumbent and she will be further helped by a Spitzer run for the governors mansion.

In addition to all this where Bush to win in 2004….and I think it very likely that while he would win both the popular and the electoral votes (say he adds MN, NM and IA to the GOP column as would be most likely IMHO in the case of a Bush win) then I think it very naive to suggest that the Bush second term will be a “triumphal progress” where every thing is sunny for the GOP…in reality it is highly probable that Bush will have to introduce large cuts in social programs and social security which will go down very poorly as it will be at the exact time that the boomers begin to retire causing a potentially catastrophic crisis for social security and on the back of that I think it very probable that the Dems could sweep the 2006 midterms. So come 2008 the likes of Owens who could easily wait till 2012 or even 2016 will do so however the older GOP leaders such as Pataki and Frist may run anyway seeing it as their only real shot at the Republican nomination….as for the dems as I have already said so long as he is re-elected in 2006 (as now seems probable) Ed Rendell will most likely be the Dem nominee while Harold Ford (who will very possibly have replaced Frist as one of Tennessee’s two senators) will possibly be his VP running mate…                            

Oh and if i had to guess i would say the GOP ticket in 2008 will proably be Frist/? amd some guy or girl we havent even heard of yet...

[Reaganfan]

Giul;ianik said he will run in 2006 against Hillary in which case he could run as Senator Giuliani. If he did not get the seat he could still run, and maybe win as Former Mayor Giuliani.