Does Romney's frontrunner status hinge on health care reform failing to pass?

[Mr. Morden]

Thread title is self explanatory.  Romney passed HCR in MA, which featured an individual mandate and no public option.  The current flavor of HCR being debated in Congress features an individual mandate with no public option.  It's hard to imagine the GOP nominating someone who, as governor, passed a miniature version of Obama's signature domestic policy initiative.

OTOH, if the current health care reform fails, then the issue won't be so potent 23 months from now when the primaries start, and "Romneycare" might not be quite so open to attack.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't know.  Even Republicans realize that there's a major problem with our current health care system and want something done to fix it. Presumably, these Republicans are looking for something much more market-based than a public option, and Romneycare sorta fits the bill.

Nevermind that, when put under the microscope, Romneycare can be seen as a monstrous entitlement program that has done next to nothing to make health care more affordable for the middle class, has done little to stem the use of the emergency room as a primary care physician, and has lead to increased waiting times to see doctors.

[Psychic Octopus]

It reminds me of John McCain's immigration issue in 2008. It substantially hurt what was supposed to be an easy ride to the nomination. Once the issue cooled down, McCain started to become a real competitor again (Never mind that one thing in the summer of '07). Since Obamacare will likely fail, it will help Romney. If it passes, it will hurt him exponentially.

[Poundingtherock]

Romney is the frontrunner?

But no, it does not hinge on it.  I actually don't think Romney will lose because of the healthcare debate in MA. 

[TheGreatOne]

Romney is the frontrunner?

But no, it does not hinge on it.  I actually don't think Romney will lose because of the healthcare debate in MA. 

Yes Romney is the frontrunner, and then Palin, and then Huckabee.  Look at most of the polls.

[Poundingtherock]

Most of the polls?

Washington Post

Palin 17%
Huckabee 10%

Daily Kos/Research 2K

Palin 16%
Romney 11%

Gallup

Romney 14%
Palin 11%

Zogby

Palin 22%
Romney 19%

I think it's more accurate to call Romney one of the frontrunners.  But the frontrunner?  I think that's a hard case to make with the last four polls.

[TheGreatOne]

Most of the polls?

Washington Post

Palin 17%
Huckabee 10%

Daily Kos/Research 2K

Palin 16%
Romney 11%

Gallup

Romney 14%
Palin 11%

Zogby

Palin 22%
Romney 19%

I think it's more accurate to call Romney one of the frontrunners.  But the frontrunner?  I think that's a hard case to make with the last four polls.

Okay, my bad.  The majority of the polls I've seen over the last year has had Romney in the lead.  There was also a bunch of polls with Huckabee leading.  I would assume the frontrunners are Romney, Huckabee, and Palin.  A case could be made for all of them.

[Poundingtherock]

Well, the last four polls suggest that Huckabee's support has collapsed (though he remains the strongest  general election candidate at least according to PPP(D)).

The last lead that Huckabee held in a primary poll was CNN in late October:

Huckabee 32%
Palin 25%

Gallup was the first poll that Romney has led in the last five months (he led the Marist poll in August by 1% over Palin).

Palin has led three of the last four polls (one conducted in mid-November, three this year)

[memphis]

The GOP doesn't have a frontrunner.

[milhouse24]

I don't think Romney will be the presidential nominee.  He could be the VP, but he will always be labeled a Massachusetts liberal by the GOP field.