Maps For This Scenario: 2012 Primary Newt, Mitt, Thune, Johnson, Rudy

[California8429]

Newt Gingrich
Mitt Romney
John Thune
Haley Barbour
Gary Johnson
Rudy Giuliani

[California8429]

For 2012 primaries I mean

[CatoMinor]

Romney
Gingrich
Johnson
Thune

[Psychic Octopus]

Romney in Green, Gingrich in Blue, Thune in Red, Johnson in Gray. Something tells me that Giuliani and Barbour would drop out after the first primary states, as they would fail to gain traction. Barbour would have spent time competing with Gingrich for SC, and Giuliani with Romney, and to a lesser extent, Johnson, for New Hampshire. Thune is able to pull off Iowa and take several of the states close to his home, but he cannot overcome Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney, as they are both more popular politically. In the end, Romney is able to pull off a victory, largely credited to large amount of "movement" candidates in the race and the party unwilling to accept Gary Johnson.

[Psychic Octopus]

An alternate scenario focuses on a Giuliani victory in New Hampshire, and a Gingrich victory in Iowa, which leads to a huge clash.

[milhouse24]

Newt Gingrich
Mitt Romney
John Thune
Haley Barbour
Gary Johnson
Rudy Giuliani

I fail to see the appeal of Gingrich.  He's been out of govt for such a long time.  He should have run for governor or senate.  I just don't think he has much appeal with conservatives, especially since he is many times divorced. 

Barbour will be a strong surprise in the primaries, but I think Thune could beat him in Iowa and SC.

[The Mikado]

I don't see Johnson lasting until the NM primary.

Rudy Giuliani spends his entire time campaigning in Florida, again, and doesn't win a state.

[useful idiot]

Giuliani and Gingrich fail to gain any traction. If they don't drop out by Iowa then they will by NH. Romney grabs most of the Northeast, winning NH and keeping him in the race after losing Iowa to Thune. Barbour takes a lot of the old Huckabee vote, but lack of comparable charm causes him not to do as well as Huck.

[sentinel]

Giuliani and Gingrich fail to gain any traction. If they don't drop out by Iowa then they will by NH. Romney grabs most of the Northeast, winning NH and keeping him in the race after losing Iowa to Thune. Barbour takes a lot of the old Huckabee vote, but lack of comparable charm causes him not to do as well as Huck.

I think Romney would win the same mid-west states he won in 2008 and maybe more.

[useful idiot]

Giuliani and Gingrich fail to gain any traction. If they don't drop out by Iowa then they will by NH. Romney grabs most of the Northeast, winning NH and keeping him in the race after losing Iowa to Thune. Barbour takes a lot of the old Huckabee vote, but lack of comparable charm causes him not to do as well as Huck.

I think Romney would win the same mid-west states he won in 2008 and maybe more.

With Thune in the race, I highly doubt it. Romney won what he did because he wasn't Huckabee or a "moderate" like McCain, and had a ton of cash. Thune is a conservative, Romney doesn't know what he is. Thune is an evangelical who with this group of adulterers(Gingrich), potheads(Johnson), pro-abortionists(Giuliani), automatically takes that vote; we all know exactly what Romney's religion is.

I think Thune is the real deal. He knows how to behave and he appeals to all the right constituencies. Romney is like chewed gum, the flavor of which you didn't even like in the first place.

[TheGreatOne]

LOL to ^.  Romney would take Nevada.  That's mormon country.  Everyone outside of Las Vegas and Reno love him.

[Electric Feel]

Newt Gingrich
Mitt Romney
John Thune
Haley Barbour
Gary Johnson
Rudy Giuliani

If these are their choices, the Republicans are screwed.

[perdedor]

Newt Gingrich
Mitt Romney
John Thune
Haley Barbour
Gary Johnson
Rudy Giuliani

If these are their choices, the Republicans are screwed.

^

I would like to see Giuliani win the nomination, though. Can you imagine the what would happen to the Republican Party if a pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun control northerner was to be its Presidential nominee. It would be a complete catastrophe.

[milhouse24]

Newt Gingrich
Mitt Romney
John Thune
Haley Barbour
Gary Johnson
Rudy Giuliani

If these are their choices, the Republicans are screwed.

^

I would like to see Giuliani win the nomination, though. Can you imagine the what would happen to the Republican Party if a pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun control northerner was to be its Presidential nominee. It would be a complete catastrophe.

Yeah, obviously that would never happen, unless it was a Romney-Giuliani-Bloomberg independent Rockefeller republican ticket!

[useful idiot]

LOL to ^.  Romney would take Nevada.  That's mormon country.  Everyone outside of Las Vegas and Reno love him.

He got 51% of the vote there against a weak field in 08. Only 11% of Nevada is LDS anyway. A conservative westerner could easily swing two percent of the vote if momentum is on his side.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

If Thune takes Iowa (some of which is inside SD's media market), I think he will run the table in the South except for the others' home states.  he could bring the fiscal and social conservative wings of the party together like no other GOP candidate could.

Romney, if he thinks Thune is running, has to be fearing him more than any other GOP contender.

Thune's biggest threat is Palin, but I think Palin is finished within the GOP, esp if she keeps doing interviews. 

What do the taking heads (Hannity/Rush/Beck) think of Thune?  Thune will need them to help derail Palin.  Iowa gives Thune the perfect chance to present a reason for the talking heads to unite behind him.  And if Thune gets FOXNews and talk radio in this corner, the nomination is his.

Basically, Palin needs to leave the stage.

[petedewolfe]

pro-abortionists

[useful idiot]

pro-abortionists

Giuliani is pro-choice, Evangelicals tend to frown on that sort of thing...

[Shilly]

Romney
Thune
Barbour
Johnson

Don't know why, but this seems right to me.

[milhouse24]

Giuliani and Gingrich fail to gain any traction. If they don't drop out by Iowa then they will by NH. Romney grabs most of the Northeast, winning NH and keeping him in the race after losing Iowa to Thune. Barbour takes a lot of the old Huckabee vote, but lack of comparable charm causes him not to do as well as Huck.

I think Romney would win the same mid-west states he won in 2008 and maybe more.

With Thune in the race, I highly doubt it. Romney won what he did because he wasn't Huckabee or a "moderate" like McCain, and had a ton of cash. Thune is a conservative, Romney doesn't know what he is. Thune is an evangelical who with this group of adulterers(Gingrich), potheads(Johnson), pro-abortionists(Giuliani), automatically takes that vote; we all know exactly what Romney's religion is.

I think Thune is the real deal. He knows how to behave and he appeals to all the right constituencies. Romney is like chewed gum, the flavor of which you didn't even like in the first place.

I just don't think an average midwest/southern Christian rural voter making less than 100k would have any interest in voting for Romney.  Northerners are very secular and open-minded to different religions, but everywhere else people take religion very seriously.  For wealthy GOP voters over 100k, they trust romney, but the average voter won't.  He's sort of like a moving target, he's trying to appeal to everyone, but he's just a bland number-crunching CEO who will ship your job to China.

[milhouse24]

If Thune takes Iowa (some of which is inside SD's media market), I think he will run the table in the South except for the others' home states.  he could bring the fiscal and social conservative wings of the party together like no other GOP candidate could.

Romney, if he thinks Thune is running, has to be fearing him more than any other GOP contender.

Thune's biggest threat is Palin, but I think Palin is finished within the GOP, esp if she keeps doing interviews. 

What do the taking heads (Hannity/Rush/Beck) think of Thune?  Thune will need them to help derail Palin.  Iowa gives Thune the perfect chance to present a reason for the talking heads to unite behind him.  And if Thune gets FOXNews and talk radio in this corner, the nomination is his.

Basically, Palin needs to leave the stage.

 

I think Huckabee would have beaten McCain in SC if lazy Fred Thompson didn't find the energy to campaign there.  So there is the worry that Thune and Barbour would split the vote in SC and give it to Romney by accident, now that would be scary. 

I fail to see how Palin is sustaining her popularity.  Sure she is pretty, photogenic, weirdly outspoken, and acting as an anti-Obama in the media by default.  She a flavor of the year, but I don't see how the Republican leadership can rally around Palin.  Sure Dubya was a dufus but he had smart and powerful friends/family.  Palin is just a hillbilly dufus who can't get out of her way, with very little accomplishments.  She would be great as a talking head for a certain audience, but what CEO would want her leading the nation and trusting her with the button.  I just want an experienced, non-senile leader.