2012 Republican candidates

[ScottM]

Who will the Republican candidates in the 2012 primaries be? Here's my list:

Haley Barbour
Eric Cantor
Newt Gingrich
Mike Huckabee
Gary Johnson
Sarah Palin
Tim Pawlenty
Mike Pence
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
John Thune

Anyone else want to give their list?

[JSojourner]

Haley Barbour  (He seems to be visiting the right states.)

Ron Paul  (Paul may defer to Johnson.)

Newt Gingrich  (He may run, but his sun has set.  Out early, if he's in at all.)

Mike Huckabee  (I don't see it.  His foes will tear him up on crime, deserved or not.)

Gary Johnson   (If he doesn't run, the fanboys will hunt him down and kill him.)

Sarah Palin  (She's had better luck controlling the questions.  Come primary season, she can forget about it.)

Tim Pawlenty  (Not to be underestimated.)

Mitch Daniels  (He swears he's not running.  I am nearly certain he is.)

Mike Pence   (I am not sure.  I suspect he will run for Governor or wait for Lugar to retire.  The other possibility is that Pence will run, but will really be angling for the VP nod.)

Mitt Romney   (Believes it's his right. Will run as though he's entitled to the nomination.)

Rick Santorum (Probably more suited to be Alan Keyes' running mate on the Constitution Party ticket, Santorum will get in early if he runs at all.  I really fail to see the need.  Thune, Palin, Pence and most of the others are basically carbon copies of this nutter.)

John Thune  (The Family must have at least one of its members in the hunt.  Thune seems like the early favorite. A dangerous guy, and not terribly bright.)

The odd House member  (It was Hunter and Tancredo last time.  Perhaps Cantor.  Perhaps Pence.  Likely, someone else will throw their name out.)

The random former Governor not named Gary Johnson   (Jim Gilmore and Tommy Thompson last time.  And Frank Keating almost jumped in...but bailed at the last minute.  You can be nearly certain there will be one or two like this...in addition to Johnson.  I would say Terry Branstad, but he is running for his old job, isn't he? Bill Owens?  Probably not...he raised taxes. I'd cast a glance at Tom Ridge or John Engler.)

[Torie]

I would add Huntsman to the mix. I think he has what it takes, unlike  those on the list posted, who don't, and will not be POTUS ever (except maybe Romney as the white knight if the economy really takes a dump and folks are terrified, and want someone with creds when it comes to money management to take charge). You know the list is so thin, that if I had a couple of hundred million in surplus cash to throw at it, I might run. One thing I know; I would not be boring!  

[Mr. Morden]

Here's my list of people who have actually done something to stoke speculation that they might be running:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=104384.0

I guess I could update it for February:

Barbour: visits to early primary states
Gingrich: PAC, visits to early primary states, publicly stated he might run
Huckabee: PAC, visits to early primary states
Johnson: PAC, visits to early primary states
Palin: PAC, visits to early primary states
Paul: visits to early primary states
Pawlenty: PAC, visits to early primary states
Pence: PAC, visits to early primary states
Romney: PAC, visits to early primary states, moved to New Hampshire, coming out with a book about how awesome America is
Santorum: visits to early primary states, publicly stated he might run

OK, yes, all of the above have now visited early primary states, and most of them have PACs as well.

If I had to say which five people have been most overt about their interest in 2012, I'd say:

Romney
Pawlenty
Santorum
Gingrich
Johnson

Though I still think Gingrich may just be teasing, as usual.

[Poundingtherock]

Morden,

Gingrich doesn't have a PAC.

[California8429]

Haley Barbour: Wants it yes, can he actually be a player?
Eric Cantor: Try Speaker of the House
Newt Gingrich: Last chance for Newt. But he'll drag it out again and may lose his chance
Mike Huckabee: Nothing seeing it, even if the polls say otherwise
Gary Johnson: Yes
Sarah Palin: She's testing the waters, totally up in the air
Tim Pawlenty: Yes
Mike Pence: Probably not, and if he does he is nothing special. People would rather have Cantor
Mitt Romney: Yes as of the moment, but may step aside
Rick Santorum: Yes
John Thune: Possibly, but he still has lots of time

[Mr. Morden]

Morden,

Gingrich doesn't have a PAC.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/01/gingrich-starts-new-pac.html

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[Poundingtherock]

Morden,

My mistake then.  I thought he only had his 527.

In any event, I'm starting to question whether Romney will run.  Skipping the Southern Republican Leadership Conference is stunning.  He used that event to really launch his campaign in 2006 by finishing second in the straw poll.

[Mr. Morden]

If Romney isn't running, then why is he coming out with a book about how America is awesome?  It's not like he needs the money, or the fame.  Is he really that deeply convinced that America is awesome, that he has to write a book about it, without any ulterior motives?

[Poundingtherock]

Why not go to the Southern Republican Leadership Conference then?

Plenty of wealthy people write books even if they aren't running.  I'm sure Romney wants to stay relevant in some fashion if he doesn't run.  I expect the book to do horribly.

[Mr. Morden]

Why not go to the Southern Republican Leadership Conference then?

Again, read this:

http://thephoenix.com/Boston/news/96976-new-and-improved-romney/

about Romney's desire to pivot away from the South, at least for the primaries.

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"The Case for American Greatness"?  How many wealthy people write books with titles that try to suck up to the voters like that?

[TheGreatOne]

Gary Johnson, Newt Gingrich or Tim Pawlenty

[ARescan]

Newt Gingrich
Mike Huckabee
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
John Thune

I'm going T-Paw for the win as well.

[Anthony]

Mitt Romney - Narrowly wins nomination over Thune.
John Thune - 2nd place. Wins VP nomination after doing surprisingly well in the primaries.
Tim Pawlenty - 3rd place. Exits race after doing badly on Super Tuesday.
Gary Johnson - 4th place. Doesn't exit the race until Romney wins nomination in June. Re-enters race afterwards as an independent candidate.
Sarah Palin - 5th place. Exits race after losing the Iowa caucuses to Thune, and losing the New Hampshire caucuses to Romney. Makes several campaign flops early on in the campaign.
Newt Gingrich - 6th place. Exits race after losing the New Hampshire caucuses.
Rick Santorum - 7th place. Exits race after losing the Iowa caucuses.
Mike Pence - 8th place. Exits race after losing the Iowa caucuses.

[California8429]

Mitt Romney - Narrowly wins nomination over Thune.
John Thune - 2nd place. Wins VP nomination after doing surprisingly well in the primaries.
Tim Pawlenty - 3rd place. Exits race after doing badly on Super Tuesday.
Gary Johnson - 4th place. Doesn't exit the race until Romney wins nomination in June. Re-enters race afterwards as an independent candidate.
Sarah Palin - 5th place. Exits race after losing the Iowa caucuses to Thune, and losing the New Hampshire caucuses to Romney. Makes several campaign flops early on in the campaign.
Newt Gingrich - 6th place. Exits race after losing the New Hampshire caucuses.
Rick Santorum - 7th place. Exits race after losing the Iowa caucuses.
Mike Pence - 8th place. Exits race after losing the Iowa caucuses.

newt wouldn't leave after NH, he would wait at least until South Carolina

[milhouse24]

Barbour is definitely running.  I think Thune will be on the VP list, as will Romney.  I think Jeb will be the nominee.