Michael Castle 2010 = Lincoln Chafee 2006?

[retromike22]

The more I read about the 2010 Delaware Senate race, the more it reminds me of the 2006 Senate race in Rhode Island.  Aside from the difference of an incumbent running in RI vs an open seat in DE, I think there are several similarities.

Both Castle and Chafee are moderate (maybe liberal) Republicans who are attempting to win a seat in a heavily Democratic state.  Both are well known in the state due to years of public service and their Democratic challenger is not.  Both (most likely in the case of Castle) have a conservative challenger which causes them to shift their positions in order to win their Republican primary.  However, because of this, they lose support to their Democratic challenger.

I think in the end, Castle's challenger Chris Coons will beat him.  I know Castle is ahead in polling, but Chafee's opponent Sheldon Whitehouse didn't even tie with him in the polls until June 2006. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No.

The only reason Chafee lost was Bush and Congressional Republican unopularity. Chafee had a 63% approval rating yet still lost by 6%.

With a Democratic President and Democratic Congress I don't see that dynamic in play.

[You kip if you want to...]

The more I read about the 2010 Delaware Senate race, the more it reminds me of the 2006 Senate race in Rhode Island.  Aside from the difference of an incumbent running in RI vs an open seat in DE, I think there are several similarities.

Both Castle and Chafee are moderate (maybe liberal) Republicans who are attempting to win a seat in a heavily Democratic state.  Both are well known in the state due to years of public service and their Democratic challenger is not.  Both (most likely in the case of Castle) have a conservative challenger which causes them to shift their positions in order to win their Republican primary.  However, because of this, they lose support to their Democratic challenger.

I think in the end, Castle's challenger Chris Coons will beat him.  I know Castle is ahead in polling, but Chafee's opponent Sheldon Whitehouse didn't even tie with him in the polls until June 2006. 

Stop trying to spin this. Delaware is lost. North Dakota is lost. Connecticut is held. Deal with it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Unlike Chafee, Castle is not moderate or liberal

[ajc0918]

The more I read about the 2010 Delaware Senate race, the more it reminds me of the 2006 Senate race in Rhode Island.  Aside from the difference of an incumbent running in RI vs an open seat in DE, I think there are several similarities.

Both Castle and Chafee are moderate (maybe liberal) Republicans who are attempting to win a seat in a heavily Democratic state.  Both are well known in the state due to years of public service and their Democratic challenger is not.  Both (most likely in the case of Castle) have a conservative challenger which causes them to shift their positions in order to win their Republican primary.  However, because of this, they lose support to their Democratic challenger.

I think in the end, Castle's challenger Chris Coons will beat him.  I know Castle is ahead in polling, but Chafee's opponent Sheldon Whitehouse didn't even tie with him in the polls until June 2006. 

Stop trying to spin this. Delaware is lost. North Dakota is lost. Connecticut is held. Deal with it.

[Katherine Harris is legit]

Unlike Chafee, Castle is not moderate or liberal

What. THey are both RINOS

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Unlike Chafee, Castle is not moderate or liberal

What. THey are both RINOS

Castle is fairly right-wing. Chafee is not a Republican any more. So neither are RINOs.

[Katherine Harris is legit]

Unlike Chafee, Castle is not moderate or liberal

What. THey are both RINOS

Castle is fairly right-wing. Chafee is not a Republican any more. So neither are RINOs.

Castle is center/center-left
Chafee was more liberal than most Democrats

Both need purged. Stains on my party. I wont have it

[Hash]

Christine O'Donnell is not Steve Laffey.

[Padfoot]

The dynamics of these races are completely different.  I don't see Castle being forced to run rightward in order to win the primary.  I suspect he'll cruise right through that phase of the campaign especially given his popularity at home and Scott Brown's victory.

However, I disagree with the notion that Delaware is as lost as say North Dakota or Arkansas.  Delaware voted strongly for Obama and the effect that Scott Brown has on the Democrats' agenda in the Senate remains to be seen.  If Republicans continue their obstructionism a Democratic state like Delaware might think twice about sending another automatic "nay" to the Senate.  There's also the "Biden facotr."  I don't imagine old Joe is going to just hand this seat over to Castle wrapped in a pretty bow.

[Dan the Roman]

While I think Castle is in a different boat from Chafee, he may well be vulnerable to the same factor that doomed the latter, namely, while voters may be very happy to have Castle as the 45th or 46th GOP vote in the senate, they will not want him as the 51st. Had senate control not been in doubt in 2006 Chafee would have won regardless of Bush, what doomed him was that control was at stake.

This is a reason I think that counter-intuitively, the chances of Mark Kirk and Mike Castle are actually inversely related to any Republican wave. Both are running well on their own merits and their opponents' weaknesses and any nationalization, especially in terms of a discussion of a GOP takeover is likely to move the races from territory where they are strong(local issues) to where their strengths and positives frankly don't matter. And Coons is not all that worse than Whitehouse.

Frankly, had senate control overall been in doubt, the results in MA would have been very different. Hence why an Obama defeat likely would spell the same for Scott Brown next year.

[KeeptheChange]

Castle may be the most liberal Republican in the HOR!  How do people say he's conservative?  What a joke.

As to the race, it's an automatic R win unless Castle has some sort of scandal or HUGE misstep on the campaign trail.  I will say, that Coons fellow seems pretty sharp.  But being "sharp" isn't going to cut it in a state where Castle has been wildly popular forever.  Funny, the last Republican I remember from Delaware was named Dupont...and he ran for President.  LOL

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Castle may be the most liberal Republican in the HOR!  How do people say he's conservative?  What a joke.

As to the race, it's an automatic R win unless Castle has some sort of scandal or HUGE misstep on the campaign trail.  I will say, that Coons fellow seems pretty sharp.  But being "sharp" isn't going to cut it in a state where Castle has been wildly popular forever.  Funny, the last Republican I remember from Delaware was named Dupont...and he ran for President.  LOL

Must not have heard of Bill Roth, then.

[perdedor]

Castle may be the most liberal Republican in the HOR!  How do people say he's conservative?  What a joke.

Can you back this up with anything or are you just being disagreeable?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Unlike Chafee, Castle is not moderate or liberal

What. THey are both RINOS

Jfern,

You are very wrong on Castle!

He has a lower rating from the American Conservative Union (28%) for 2008 than any other Republican member of the House!

The liberal Americans for Democratic Action gives him a rating of 65% for 2008, and no other Republican in the House has a higher rating!

With the exception of his support for big business, Castle is a down the line liberal.  He supports abortion, he opposes the right to keep and bear arms, to cite but two documented examples!
Castle is fairly right-wing. Chafee is not a Republican any more. So neither are RINOs.

[SvenssonRS]

Unlike Chafee, Castle is not moderate or liberal

What. THey are both RINOS

Castle is fairly right-wing. Chafee is not a Republican any more. So neither are RINOs.

Castle is center/center-left
Chafee was more liberal than most Democrats

Both need purged. Stains on my party. I wont have it

And what are you going to do about it? Incite a pathetic witch hunt?

Grow a brain cell or two, wingnut.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Chafee is center-left, Castle is center-right.

Yes Castle is probably the most moderate/liberal R in the House, but he's still more conservative than Snowe and Collins, and probably not very far left of Scott Brown. He voted against the stimulus, in favor of Stupak, and against the health care bill. On the issues of the day he's not far from the conservative base, but he's proven moderate enough to win DE.  I think he'll win both the primary and the general quite easily.

[Lunar]

Chafee is center-left, Castle is center-right.

Yes Castle is probably the most moderate/liberal R in the House, but he's still more conservative than Snowe and Collins, and probably not very far left of Scott Brown. He voted against the stimulus, in favor of Stupak, and against the health care bill. On the issues of the day he's not far from the conservative base, but he's proven moderate enough to win DE.  I think he'll win both the primary and the general quite easily.

Wow, that's one of the most fair analyses I've seen by a poster with under 100 posts (and every other poster, regardless of post count, in this entire thread) completely agree on the differences between Chafee and Castle.

Fundamentally, Castle is also much more moderate in demeanor than his fellow party members.  I don't really get the feeling that he has a knee-jerk reaction to oppose everything the Democrats support (plenty of Dems are the same way, of course, not singling out anyone).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Another point of difference between Castle and Chafee: Castle is quite respected as a bipartisan negotiator, and a rather smart guy.

Chafee was a dim bulb blacksmith who only wound up in office because of an appointment and a familiar-sounding name.

If Republicans continue their obstructionism a Democratic state like Delaware might think twice about sending another automatic "nay" to the Senate.  There's also the "Biden facotr."  I don't imagine old Joe is going to just hand this seat over to Castle wrapped in a pretty bow.

(1) Everyone in Delaware already knows Castle is not an automatic nay. He's known as an effective moderate, which means working and voting with Democrats when they're on the right side of the issues.

(2)  You greatly underestimate the level of friendship between Biden and Castle, and even Carper and Castle. It is not unusual for the highest office holders in a state, when of different parties, to work together, develop friendships, and even make unspoken non-agression pacts. If you're expecting Biden to start working the state and throwing bombs, going balls to the wall to defeat his friend who is a four-year seatwarmer at worst, I think you're mistaken.

Besides, I think Biden knows that Castle has this one wrapped up, and Castle will play an important part in getting moderate GOP support for bills the President wants passed in the next congress. No point in ruining a good working relationship.

[KeeptheChange]

Castle may be the most liberal Republican in the HOR!  How do people say he's conservative?  What a joke.

As to the race, it's an automatic R win unless Castle has some sort of scandal or HUGE misstep on the campaign trail.  I will say, that Coons fellow seems pretty sharp.  But being "sharp" isn't going to cut it in a state where Castle has been wildly popular forever.  Funny, the last Republican I remember from Delaware was named Dupont...and he ran for President.  LOL

Must not have heard of Bill Roth, then.

Roth IRA.  Yeah.  I forgot about him.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Chafee is center-left, Castle is center-right.

Yes Castle is probably the most moderate/liberal R in the House, but he's still more conservative than Snowe and Collins, and probably not very far left of Scott Brown. He voted against the stimulus, in favor of Stupak, and against the health care bill. On the issues of the day he's not far from the conservative base, but he's proven moderate enough to win DE.  I think he'll win both the primary and the general quite easily.

Wow, that's one of the most fair analyses I've seen by a poster with under 100 posts (and every other poster, regardless of post count, in this entire thread) completely agree on the differences between Chafee and Castle.

Fundamentally, Castle is also much more moderate in demeanor than his fellow party members.  I don't really get the feeling that he has a knee-jerk reaction to oppose everything the Democrats support (plenty of Dems are the same way, of course, not singling out anyone).

thanks!

(post #100!)

[Bo]

The more I read about the 2010 Delaware Senate race, the more it reminds me of the 2006 Senate race in Rhode Island.  Aside from the difference of an incumbent running in RI vs an open seat in DE, I think there are several similarities.

Both Castle and Chafee are moderate (maybe liberal) Republicans who are attempting to win a seat in a heavily Democratic state.  Both are well known in the state due to years of public service and their Democratic challenger is not.  Both (most likely in the case of Castle) have a conservative challenger which causes them to shift their positions in order to win their Republican primary.  However, because of this, they lose support to their Democratic challenger.

I think in the end, Castle's challenger Chris Coons will beat him.  I know Castle is ahead in polling, but Chafee's opponent Sheldon Whitehouse didn't even tie with him in the polls until June 2006. 

Stop trying to spin this. Delaware is lost. North Dakota is lost. Connecticut is held. Deal with it.

I agree about DE and ND, but we will keep CT (since Dodd retired there). Also, as previously mentioned, Chafee lost because the GOP controlled Congress and the Presidency, and thus Rhode Islanders wanted to send a message for change (even though they liked Chafee personally). Now that the Democrats contol the Presidency and Congress, the people of Delaware will want to demonstrate their dissatisfaction with the Democrats (at least many of them would) by electing a Republican (Castle) to the Senate.

[You kip if you want to...]

The more I read about the 2010 Delaware Senate race, the more it reminds me of the 2006 Senate race in Rhode Island.  Aside from the difference of an incumbent running in RI vs an open seat in DE, I think there are several similarities.

Both Castle and Chafee are moderate (maybe liberal) Republicans who are attempting to win a seat in a heavily Democratic state.  Both are well known in the state due to years of public service and their Democratic challenger is not.  Both (most likely in the case of Castle) have a conservative challenger which causes them to shift their positions in order to win their Republican primary.  However, because of this, they lose support to their Democratic challenger.

I think in the end, Castle's challenger Chris Coons will beat him.  I know Castle is ahead in polling, but Chafee's opponent Sheldon Whitehouse didn't even tie with him in the polls until June 2006. 

Stop trying to spin this. Delaware is lost. North Dakota is lost. Connecticut is held. Deal with it.

I agree about DE and ND, but we will keep CT (since Dodd retired there).

Yeah. That's what I ment.