So have we all seen the new Palin poll?

[Iosif]

"An overwhelming number of Americans are seriously ticked off at their government but that anger isn't driving them into the arms of Sarah Palin, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll. A full 71% of voters—including a majority of Republicans—feel that Palin is unqualified to be president. Only 37% have favorable views of Palin, the poll found."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/10/AR2010021004708.html

[Mr. Morden]

Palin's gradual downward trend in popularity:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_021010.html?sid=ST2010021100035

c. Sarah Palin

              ------- Favorable -------   ------ Unfavorable ------     No   
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
2/8/10        37       18         20      55       16         38         8
11/15/09      43       20         23      52       18         34         5
7/18/09       40       20         20      53       19         34         7
10/23/08 LV   46       28         18      51       11         40         3
9/29/08  RV   51       29         23      40       11         29         9
9/22/08  RV   52       31         21      38       10         27        11
9/7/08   RV   58       35         23      28       11         17        15
9/4/08*  RV   52       34         18      37       14         23        11


Interestingly, the poll also has the GOP doing the best it's done in the generic congressional matchup since 2002, and the Democratic Party has its lowest favorability ratings in decades.

[Psychic Octopus]

Pretty epic decline, I might say.

[Bo]

She is through. It's not so much her political values; it is her character. Someone with the same core political values can win the GOP nomination. She can no longer do so. She has shown herself vain, vicious, vindictive, and venal. She has shown herself corrupt and dishonest.

 

I think she can win the nomination, but not the general election (unless there is a second Great Depression or Obama screws up foreign policy in a Carteresque manner).

[Jensen]

Who could possibly think she would trend the other way once we got to know more about her?

[Mr. Morden]

"An overwhelming number of Americans are seriously ticked off at their government but that anger isn't driving them into the arms of Sarah Palin, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll. A full 71% of voters—including a majority of Republicans—feel that Palin is unqualified to be president.

This is the problem she faces if she actually wants to win the GOP nomination.  The GOP base may like her, but if they don't think she's ready to be president, then she has quite a problem.  I mean, the GOP base also like Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck, but that doesn't mean that they're ready to vote for them for president.  Quitting her job as governor halfway through her term certainly doesn't do her any favors, if her goal is higher office.  That's why I'm still not convinced that her goal *is* higher office.

[pbrower2a]

Whoops! I deleted what someone cited.

Although the core political values of Sarah Palin are compatible with GOP voters, I must take back my contention that she would lose the GOP nomination just because a majority of GOP voters now think her unqualified to be President.  She could win a 40-30-30 split in the Republican delegate count that manifests itself in a knock-down, drag-out contest in the Republican National Convention. Of course she would be trounced in the general election. She is NOT too right-wing and corporate-friendly for the GOP, but she has some unattractive characteristics as a candidate in the general election. All that President Obama would need do is to show a steady hand as a leader from now until November 2012, and he could win in a landslide.   

She could induce a third-party challenge to her Presidential bid (Huckabee-Lieberman?), and that would split conservative votes enough that Obama would win in some surprising places -- like Kansas and Mississippi. She would be in third place in electoral votes with an Obama landslide. 

[Mr. Morden]

New Economist/YouGov poll gives similar #s on Palin favorability:

http://media.economist.com/images/pdf/Toplines20100211.pdf

very favorable 20%
somewhat favorable 19%

very unfavorable 38%
somewhat unfavorable 16%

Still better numbers than Nancy Pelosi though.

[Poundingtherock]

The sample seems a little slanted in the Economist poll.  +12 D/R is a little too generous to the Democrats in my opinion.

[segwaystyle2012]

Palin won't have shot at the nomination. I actually think her running could help Gary Johnson out a bit.

[pbrower2a]

New Economist/YouGov poll gives similar #s on Palin favorability:

http://media.economist.com/images/pdf/Toplines20100211.pdf

very favorable 20%
somewhat favorable 19%

very unfavorable 38%
somewhat unfavorable 16%

Still better numbers than Nancy Pelosi though.

Nancy Pelosi did not fall so far so fast. As Speaker of the House, she gets the brunt of an almost permanent public contempt for Congress as a whole.

Unlike Sarah Palin, whose fall relates to her behavior instead of to her political stances, Nancy Pelosi has some chance of a comeback.

[Mr. Morden]

Good article in the Politico today about how the media covers Palin as if she were the central figure in 2012 politics, when they don't actually believe that to be the case.....they cover her because it means good ratings:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/32885.html

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[Poundingtherock]

But the polls do indicate her to be one of the central figures in 2012.  Perhaps they are mistaken in covering her as THE central figure but it's tough to argue that she's not one of the central figures given the last couple polls.

Kos/Research 2K
Palin 16%
Romney 11%

Gallup
Romney 14%
Palin 11%

Zogby
Palin 22%
Romney 19%

[Zarn]

The only semi-reasonable pollster you have there is Gallup at 11%.

[Poundingtherock]

How about the Washington Post in November:

Palin 17%
Huckabee 10%

Research 2K is a semi-reaonable pollster and the Zogby result seems consistent with the other three polls.

[Mr. Morden]

The Zogby poll wasn't even a telephone poll.  It was an internet poll.

And the point isn't that she's not competitive in the national polls.  She is competitive in the national polls.  The article's point was simply that she's given outsized coverage by the media, treated as if she's the "nominee in waiting", a la George W. Bush in 1998 or Hillary Clinton in 2006, when there's no real reason to treat her that way, other than that she's good for ratings.

[Poundingtherock]

It was an internet poll that appears consistent with the other national polling.

I'd agree that the media is probably off in treating her as ther overwhelming  favorite but is that how it is really treating her?

I don't think the media is off in treating her as the frontrunner.