(Adapted from Nate Silver at
www.fivethirtyeight.com)
I here am looking only at likely voters in Republican primaries, and not at the general election. For example, Oregon is one of the more Democratic-leaning states, but its Republicans are very right-wing, rural, evangelical, and low in education.
Here's a blank map:
Nate Silver uses six criteria to determine how Republican-leaning voters (McCain voters in 2008) will vote in GOP primaries:
First,
fundraising. No matter where it comes from, it indicates high likelihood of someone voting for Palin in the primaries irrespective of partisan affiliation or 2008 votes. This is very strong.
Second,
rurality. Sarah Palin did very well among rural voters but she hurt McCain badly in urban areas. As an exponent of ostensible virtues of rural life (self-reliance, ruggedness) she has a cultural tie to rural America (the "Real America" that she spoke of, as opposed to such not-so real places as New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, etc. ) This is practically double-counted.
Third,
conservatism. Normally counted because conservatism has connections to other things. Liberals despise her, and moderates are likely to find someone else.
Fourth,
limited education -- that is, no college. People with no more than a high school diploma seem to find her increasingly objectionable as their educational attainments increase. This is a very strong connection.
Fifth,
evangelical Christianity. Because it ties to other voting characteristics, it is normally counted.
Sixth,
oil and terrorism voters. Sarah Palin is excellent at throwing red meat at voters scared of terrorism and she is friendly to Big Oil.
Alaska, not surprisingly, is her strongest state by far, and she has an index of +19.5 there (Silver's -- I didn't make this one up), and it is in its own category. 80% blue.
Four states (MS, MT, ND, WY) have indexes between +8.5 and +12.3. 60% blue.
+6.6 to 7.8 ... 50% blue. Five states, and among these, Oregon seems surprising -- except that Oregon Republicans are very rural, conservative, and low in education in contrast to Democrats unlikely to vote in the 2012 GOP primary.
+5.5 to +6.2... 40% blue.
+3.1 to +4.4... 30% blue. Congressional districts do not matter in primaries, so ignore those in Maine and Nebraska in this category.
+1.5 to +2.7... 20% blue. This category is the category in which Sarah Palin might have a slight and significant edge if she is a Big Player in 2012 in the Republican primaries.
The white category (-1.0 to +0.5) is for those in which she has an advantage or disadvantage no more than 1% over other Republicans. One of those is the giant electoral prize of Texas, and another is electorally-large Florida. New Hampshire is significant as having the first primary.
Below this she has no obvious advantages. Arizona, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (-2.3 to -1.9) figure big in the general election of 2012, and they are in the palest shade of pink (20% red). They are only four states, but they comprised 43 electoral votes in 2008. With Arizona and Colorado. They are statistically a compact group if geographically divided into two pairs of states very close to each other.
The next group is three states (-4.9 to -4.2) -- California, Delaware, and Michigan, 30% red. California is a supergiant prize, and Michigan is simply large. 30% red. No comments are necessary.
Next comes a state in its own category -- Utah, at -5.3. Ordinarily I would put it in a medium-red color, but for good reason I am putting this one in the darkest shade of red because if Mitt Romney is running, there is absolutely no way in which Sarah Palin wins the Republican primary in Utah. 90% red, and that is no mistake.
Then come states in which her disadvantage is between -7.1 and 5.9: Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, New York, and Rhode Island. 50% red.
Distinctions between New Jersey and Connecticut aren't worthy of making. 70% red.
DC and American commonwealths and colonies participate in Republican. Silver says nothing about RC, but somehow I think that Palin would do badly among such few Republicans who live there.
