Alabama poll: Huckabee 33% Palin 23% Romney 12% Paul 5% Pawlenty 2%

[Mr. Morden]

Public Strategy Associates GOP primary poll of Alabama:

link

Huckabee 33%
Palin 23%
Romney 12%
Paul 5%
Pawlenty 2%
undecided 24%

[Poundingtherock]

I didn't realize how uncompetitive Romney is in certain states until I saw this poll.

It appears that either Palin or Huckabee will win Alabama with over 50% of the vote on Super Tuesday.

Though it should be noted that both Romney and Huckabee are underperforming by 6-8 points from where they were on Super Tuesday in 2008.  That suggests that Palin is taking some former Huckabee/Romney supporters and adding some of McCain's moderates.

[pbrower2a]

The low poll number for Romney in Alabama suggests a pattern in which he would have trouble holding onto the South in the General election. To be sure, just about any Republican will win Alabama in the general election, because Alabama is one of the strongest of Republican states (see also Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming). Alabama goes for Obama in 2012 only if about 30% of the white vote in Alabama goes to Obama, possible only if white Alabamans vote like white Kentuckians, which isn't going to happen. 

More relevant to a Romney candidacy are such states as Florida and North Carolina (which Obama barely won), Georgia (which McCain barely won), and South Carolina (borderline-competitive in 2008, but looks competitive now).

Should President Obama become a disaster as a President, though, the whole South drops out of possible contention for Obama and Romney makes inroads into the Blue Firewall.

[Franzl]

Of course, just like Obama would also win Utah if Huckabee were the nominee!

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

WHERE'S GARY JOHNSON???!!!!!

/malfunction/

[fezzyfestoon]

The low poll number for Romney in Alabama suggests a pattern in which he would have trouble holding onto the South in the General election. To be sure, just about any Republican will win Alabama in the general election, because Alabama is one of the strongest of Republican states (see also Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming). Alabama goes for Obama in 2012 only if about 30% of the white vote in Alabama goes to Obama, possible only if white Alabamans vote like white Kentuckians, which isn't going to happen. 

More relevant to a Romney candidacy are such states as Florida and North Carolina (which Obama barely won), Georgia (which McCain barely won), and South Carolina (borderline-competitive in 2008, but looks competitive now).

Should President Obama become a disaster as a President, though, the whole South drops out of possible contention for Obama and Romney makes inroads into the Blue Firewall.

You are a mess.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

WHERE'S GARY JOHNSON???!!!!!

/malfunction/

Gary Johnson will be too busy competing and winning Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and New Mexico. He won't need Alabama. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

WHERE'S GARY JOHNSON???!!!!!

/malfunction/

Gary Johnson will be too busy competing and winning Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and New Mexico. He won't need Alabama. 

And Massachusetts, don't forget Massachusetts.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Statewide primary polls. Nice.

And Huckabee is at #1 to boot

[Katherine Harris is legit]

Time to weed out the RINOs. We can win if we nominate a true conservative. If we nominate a liberal-life, then voters will just pick the real Democrat.

[TheGreatOne]

Before I say what I'm about to say just know that there is a chance the I would vote for Gary Johnson in a primary and I'm not biased against him at all.  Okay, Johnson people shut up.  Stop crying every time Gary Johnson is not in a poll.  No one knows who he is besides internet libertarians on forums.  He's not popular in Alabama anyway and won't win it during the primary.  There are plenty of better known canidates who arent' in this poll besides Gary Johnson.

[Hash]

WHERE'S GARY JOHNSON???!!!!!

/malfunction/

He would have 99.9% if he was included, so it was bit unfair to others

[Beet]

I'm shocked Huckster still gets 33%. This poll just shows how weak all the GOP candidates are; I'm also surprised Palin isn't doing better. It's the Alabama GOP, for crying out loud. It should be Palin country.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I'm shocked Huckster still gets 33%. This poll just shows how weak all the GOP candidates are; I'm also surprised Palin isn't doing better. It's the Alabama GOP, for crying out loud. It should be Palin country.

Not when Huck is also in the race, clearly.

[TheGreatOne]

I'm shocked Huckster still gets 33%. This poll just shows how weak all the GOP candidates are; I'm also surprised Palin isn't doing better. It's the Alabama GOP, for crying out loud. It should be Palin country.

Huckabee is not a weak canidate.  He plays very well with the base of the party and he definately shows his intellect.  Huck would be a huge problem for Palin, because they are both appeal to the same voters (christian values voters).  However, I think Palin would win the Republican nomination because she would take all the woman Republican votes. 

[pbrower2a]

Time to weed out the RINOs. We can win if we nominate a true conservative. If we nominate a liberal-life, then voters will just pick the real Democrat.

The only problem with that theory is that RINOs have become Democrats.

The GOP needs to attract people who have been Democrats yet have been getting little for their loyalty. Democrats did much that with Republicans who have gotten little for their loyalty to  the GOP.

Do you want ideological purity or do you want to win elections?   

[ajc0918]

The low poll number for Romney in Alabama suggests a pattern in which he would have trouble holding onto the South in the General election. To be sure, just about any Republican will win Alabama in the general election, because Alabama is one of the strongest of Republican states (see also Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming). Alabama goes for Obama in 2012 only if about 30% of the white vote in Alabama goes to Obama, possible only if white Alabamans vote like white Kentuckians, which isn't going to happen. 

More relevant to a Romney candidacy are such states as Florida and North Carolina (which Obama barely won), Georgia (which McCain barely won), and South Carolina (borderline-competitive in 2008, but looks competitive now).

Should President Obama become a disaster as a President, though, the whole South drops out of possible contention for Obama and Romney makes inroads into the Blue Firewall.

You do realize that Obama might not be as strong in 2012 as be was in 08?
Do you still expect him to win Texas?

[pbrower2a]

The low poll number for Romney in Alabama suggests a pattern in which he would have trouble holding onto the South in the General election. To be sure, just about any Republican will win Alabama in the general election, because Alabama is one of the strongest of Republican states (see also Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming). Alabama goes for Obama in 2012 only if about 30% of the white vote in Alabama goes to Obama, possible only if white Alabamans vote like white Kentuckians, which isn't going to happen. 

More relevant to a Romney candidacy are such states as Florida and North Carolina (which Obama barely won), Georgia (which McCain barely won), and South Carolina (borderline-competitive in 2008, but looks competitive now).

Should President Obama become a disaster as a President, though, the whole South drops out of possible contention for Obama and Romney makes inroads into the Blue Firewall.

You do realize that Obama might not be as strong in 2012 as be was in 08?
Do you still expect him to win Texas?

1. Read the last sentence carefully. The Blue Firewall is not enough for a Democratic nominee to win with, as shown in 2000 and 2004. You should know that by now. Eighteen states and the District of Columbia haven't voted for any Republican nominee for President after 1988; three have voted for Republican nominees (in both cases George W. Bush) once. Those states alone were not enough to win the Presidency for Obama in 2008 and will fall short even more in 2012. 

2. Since 1900, 13 incumbent Presidents have won re-election, and 5 have lost. That itself suggests a 72% chance of re-election. The losses were Taft (temperamentally unsuited to the Presidency),  Hoover (economic collapse that began when he was President), Ford (became President because of unusual circumstances), Carter (mediocre President with some bad luck), and George H. W. Bush (generally competent, but couldn't express what he wanted to do in a second term). Incumbency has its advantages if one uses it wisely.

3. Contentions that President Obama will lose in 2012 because he is "too liberal" ignore the fact that he ran as an overt liberal in 2008 and won as such. If you don't see the Reagan analogy, you don't remember what liberals thought of Reagan in 1980.

4. Obama took over when much was going wrong in America. Do you really want to bet that the economy will be in worse shape in November 2012 than it was in November 2008? We are getting out of Iraq, and we are doing in Iraq what we did in Afghanistan in late 2008 -- the Surge.

5. He was a superb campaigner in 2008, and recent speeches show that he can be that again. He had one of the best-run campaign machines ever, and he will pull it out of mothballs if he must.

6. The youngest voters are far more pro-Obama than any other age group. In 2012 that group broadens its share of the electorate at the expense of older age groups (the natural process of people dying mostly in old age). That's good enough for him to pick off Missouri in 2012.

7. States are tending toward the mean in approval ratings. That paradoxically gives Obama more of a chance to lose some states in the Blue Firewall should he fail as President -- but if he succeeds, he can expect more states to trend his way. Many of the states in which he lost in 2008 were those in which he campaigned little. But he is on the air often, and people associate what goes right or wrong with him even if their state (let us say Texas) rejected him by a margin greater than 10%. With nearly a 53% share of the vote, Obama won only 365 electoral votes in 2008. With a similar share of the vote in 1944, FDR got 432 electoral votes.

Should the interstate polarization of assessment continue to shrink, then such will manifest itself in  more states voting for Obama in 2012. They would likely go in this order:

Missouri
Georgia
Arizona
South Carolina
Montana
Texas
West Virginia 

As for now, I predict that President Obama will be re-elected with about a 55-44 split in the popular vote with lesser polarization between states.  He is doing most things right.