ABC NEWS Bush 49 Kerry 48

[Pollwatch99]

Announced on ABCNEWS Sunday news show.  Since I think it's based off ABC/WP tracking poll, don't ask me how.  Paging Vorlon for his understanding. I think the quick answer is different voter models but I cannot elaborate beyond that.

This poll will not be averaged into realclearpolitics.com poll average, they posted this a long time ago.

*ABC News and Washington Post use different likely voter models for the same field data, RealClearPolitics will use the Washington Post model when the two are different.

[The Vorlon]

Announced on ABCNEWS Sunday news show.  Since I think it's based off ABC/WP tracking poll, don't ask me how.  Paging Vorlon for his understanding. I think the quick answer is different voter models but I cannot elaborate beyond that.

Or... they were quoting another poll..Maybe Newsweek?

[Shira]

If this is really so then it's good news for Kerry.
In the latest one it was Bush by 4.

[Reds4]

Tim Russert just quoted a "new ABC poll out this morning showing Bush 49 Kerry 48"  Kerry must have had a huge day yesterday in their tracking poll, or a huge Bush sample went off, or both.

[Pollwatch99]

Announced on ABCNEWS Sunday news show.  Since I think it's based off ABC/WP tracking poll, don't ask me how.  Paging Vorlon for his understanding. I think the quick answer is different voter models but I cannot elaborate beyond that.

Or... they were quoting another poll..Maybe Newsweek?

No, it was their poll.  They then showed Newsweek, Pew, MSNBC and every other poll to basically prove the thesis that the race was closing for Kerry.  George Steph... doing his last minute share for his former party?

[Giant Saguaro]

I think it all depends on who they want to say is likely to vote, and we just don't know that, I don't think. The Harris poll was a great example. Bush +8 or +2, depending on who you think is going to come out and vote. Some of these polls will show Kerry "closing" because they want to show that and others will show it because they think it's actually happening.

I'm interested in Gallup's final call, OD, and Harris. These three seem to know what they're doing, but the advantage of the tracking polls is that if there is a switch in momentum, they may pick it up, so it's good to look at them.

Rasmussen had it at 48-47 yesterday and to my knowledge Kerry did not have the lead this week, as some thought he would have by midweek. We'll see what it says today.

[millwx]

No, it was their poll.  They then showed Newsweek, Pew, MSNBC and every other poll to basically prove the thesis that the race was closing for Kerry.  George Steph... doing his last minute share for his former party?

If what we're seeing is real (I won't believe it until I see a few more polls moving this way), I have to suspect it's that "undecided break" thing going on.  I know some folks on this forum are skeptical of this, but a few pollsters have shown Bush's favorability or re-elect numbers among undecideds.  They were not good.  So, Kerry should take at least a small majority of undecideds, maybe a large majority.  I suspect that's what we're seeing.  But I'll believe it only after a few more polls show this.

[Pollwatch99]

No, it was their poll.  They then showed Newsweek, Pew, MSNBC and every other poll to basically prove the thesis that the race was closing for Kerry.  George Steph... doing his last minute share for his former party?

If what we're seeing is real (I won't believe it until I see a few more polls moving this way), I have to suspect it's that "undecided break" thing going on.  I know some folks on this forum are skeptical of this, but a few pollsters have shown Bush's favorability or re-elect numbers among undecideds.  They were not good.  So, Kerry should take at least a small majority of undecideds, maybe a large majority.  I suspect that's what we're seeing.  But I'll believe it only after a few more polls show this.

Remember ABC news poll is the same as the ABC/WP Post tracking poll( I believe this is true).  The difference isn't who they poll, it is how they interpet. This is an late interpetation to Kerry, which means what it means...whatever that is

[Shira]

The average of last 7 days polls in OH is 1.12% for Kerry. (Rasmussen I took only the latest)
http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html#Ohio

and in FL 0.14% for Bush.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html#Florida

[millwx]

The average of last 7 days polls in OH is 1.12% for Kerry. (Rasmussen I took only the latest)
http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html#Ohio

and in FL 0.14% for Bush.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html#Florida

Shira, just FYI, the poll averages I have (not to disagree with you, just to provide a different perspective on the same thing)...  My poll averages show Florida at Bush +1.1% and Ohio at Bush +0.3%.  Although, I should also point out that some pro-Bush polls will be rolling off soon, leaving Florida at about Bush +0.5% and Ohio at Kerry +0.3%.