Critz vs. Burns for PA-12

[J. J.]

I can't think of a better way to make this a cakewalk.

Russell (R) 60%
Hafer (D) 38%

Hafer is one of the weaker candidates for the D's.  I really wonder if she could get the nomination.

[timmer123]

PA Dems certainly have an affinity for party switchers.

I don't take this pick-up opportunity for granted, but I think a Rep can certainly win.

There's a reason that Obama performed 9% worse than Murtha.  He hates the coal industry and wants to bankrupt it.

Plaster that all over the district, and it wont hurt.  Plus, the Reps already had a very credible candidate in Bill Russell.

[J. J.]

PA Dems certainly have an affinity for party switchers.

I don't take this pick-up opportunity for granted, but I think a Rep can certainly win.

There's a reason that Obama performed 9% worse than Murtha.  He hates the coal industry and wants to bankrupt it.

Plaster that all over the district, and it wont hurt.  Plus, the Reps already had a very credible candidate in Bill Russell.

Ask Gene Atkinson about the "affinity" Pennsylvanians have for party switchers. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you insult your constituents...

...they re-elect you anyway.

Keywords: PA, Elections, House, Coal, Chutzpah

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you insult your constituents...

...they re-elect you anyway.

Keywords: PA, Elections, House, Coal, Chutzpah

Just to make something clear; the map shows percentage lead (the key is somewhere in the gallery, but the meaning is easy enough to work out anyways). The map is a pretty strong indication that while Murtha had a solid personal vote in the parts of the district he'd represented for decades, this wasn't true of the areas added in 2002. Not that that's surprising or anything.

[Badger]

Barbara Hafer is running as a Democrat.

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/02/exclusive-hafer-running-to-succeed-murtha/

Probably too liberal for the 12th; Johnstown is Peg Lusik's home turf.

I think Hafer lives out of the district, which isn't illegal, but won't help.

I'd also wonder if she would win the Democratic nomination.

That linked article lists Hafer as an Indiana (city of, in PA) resident which should place her within the district.

Peg Lusik won how many elections again? Even at the local level?

While I admit the GOP very well might pick up this seat, proclaiming it as a solid--or even likely) pickup at this point is optimistic. Russell, IMHO, just doesn't seem like the strongest GOP candidate compared to some of the state reps and senators in the district (though most of them represent only the Westmoreland County sliver). A local blue collarish Dem should run far ahead of Obama (or even Kerry). Hell, Murtha carried his own baggage and, while the seat is clearly far more competitive without him running (RIP), a state rep or senator won't have his ethics issues and gaffes to contend with.

As much as I would love to see Hafer elected (the one Republican I consistently voted for growing up in Allegheny County), I'm not sure she's the best Democratic candidate for this race.

[J. J.]

That linked article lists Hafer as an Indiana (city of, in PA) resident which should place her within the district.

She was elected from Allegheny County.

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She actually defeated Hafer in Cambria (and possibly all the counties in the district) in a primary in 1990.

[J. J.]

Singel's in.

[Mr.Phips]

This district is going to get chopped up beyond recognition in 2011 anyway.  Not much incentive for anyone to run.

[J. J.]

This district is going to get chopped up beyond recognition in 2011 anyway.  Not much incentive for anyone to run.

A Republican might be given a GOP district.

They could shift the 5th and 9th Districts to the east a bit.

Singel's money is a problem, and I'd bet Hafer isn't sitting on a war chest either.  Wozniak is probably the better candidate.

[Mr.Phips]

This district is going to get chopped up beyond recognition in 2011 anyway.  Not much incentive for anyone to run.

A Republican might be given a GOP district.

They could shift the 5th and 9th Districts to the east a bit.

That would be impossible without getting rid of Murphy's PA-18.  Either PA-18 or PA-12 will have to go in redistricting.  Republicans wont touch Doyle's district, because no other Republican wants any part of his territory in their district. 

[Lunar]

I predict a Democratic hold.  Why?  The Sestak-Specter primary is the same day as election day, meaning high Democratic turnout.

[Rowan]

I predict a Democratic hold.  Why?  The Sestak-Specter primary is the same day as election day, meaning high Democratic turnout.

[Sam Spade]

I predict a Democratic hold.  Why?  The Sestak-Specter primary is the same day as election day, meaning high Democratic turnout.

Are there anything but Democrats here in this part of the world, anyway?

[Lunar]

I predict a Democratic hold.  Why?  The Sestak-Specter primary is the same day as election day, meaning high Democratic turnout.

Are there anything but Democrats here in this part of the world, anyway?

Yeah, but the ones that are really Republican vaguely apathetic Toomey-backerss won't turn out.

[Sam Spade]

I predict a Democratic hold.  Why?  The Sestak-Specter primary is the same day as election day, meaning high Democratic turnout.

Are there anything but Democrats here in this part of the world, anyway?

Yeah, but the ones that are really Republican vaguely apathetic Toomey-backerss won't turn out.

Maybe.  I wouldn't be betting on that as much as traditional biases coming into play.

[Niemeyerite]

Democrats will hold the seat. Why? because they have top tier candidates like Marc Singel.

[J. J.]

Democrats will hold the seat. Why? because they have top tier candidates like Marc Singel.

He hasn't been top tier since 1994. Hey, maybe the GOP can nominate Dick Thornburgh, or me. 

[Brittain33]

He hasn't been top tier since 1994. Hey, maybe the GOP can nominate Dick Thornburgh, or me. 

Given that nobody has moved to that part of the state since the 1950s, or possibly the 1930s, it could be worse.

[Badger]

How is this election going to play out with party candidates anyway? That is, will all candidates run in some sort of jungle primary, or will the various party committees choose their respective nominees? The latter, IIRC, is how PA election law works, but I haven't been registered there for almost a decade and a half.

[J. J.]

Ed Cernic, Jr., D, the Cambria County controller is in.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

How is this election going to play out with party candidates anyway? That is, will all candidates run in some sort of jungle primary, or will the various party committees choose their respective nominees? The latter, IIRC, is how PA election law works, but I haven't been registered there for almost a decade and a half.

The later. PA is a party machine state for the most part. A jungle primary would not fit with that reputation.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Murtha's Widow Will Not Run for His Seat

[Verily]

Awwww. I was looking forward to the prospect of Congresswoman Kim Jong-il.

[J. J.]

Murtha's local aide is also in.

In terms of the nomination, unless they changed the rules in the last two years, conferee's hold a conference and elect a GOP nominee.  The county party chairs, possibly with a weighted vote, chose the D nominee.

I think Gramps can tell you that that I am "passingly familiar" with GOP process.