Democrat primary challenge in 2012?

[ScottM]

I'm curious as to whether anyone else thinks there's a reasonable chance that Obama could face a primary challenge in 2012. I think there's a relatively high chance of it happening. (By that, I mean a much higher chance of an opponent than an incumbent might normally face.) With all the recent comparisons to Carter, I think a repeat of 1980 is quite possible.

Here are some candidates I think are at least possible challengers.

1) Hillary Clinton: I think she's the most obvious opponent. I don't think her desire to be President has diminished in the least. I know she's been denying any interest in running, but at this stage, who doesn't? I don't think she can be too pleased with how her appointment as Secretary of State has worked out, as she's been shoved into the background in large part. She may have the perfect issue to usher in her candidacy as well. She could very easily use the healthcare debate to enter the race, by saying that Obama mishandled the issue, and that due to all the work she has put into the issue, she would be more successful at implementing changes. The healthcare issue may not fly very well in the general election, but it could be a strong issue in the primary.

2) Mark Warner: I think Warner may be a possible challenger, as he could enter the race as the "moderate candidate" who would claim to be able to work well with both sides. Warner would stand a very good chance at picking up the votes of more centrist voters that lean toward the Democrats. Warner was also believed to be a possible candidate in 2008, so I don't think it's a stretch to include him in a list like this.

3) Brian Schweitzer: Schweitzer is definitely considered a rising star in the party by many, and would not be eligible to run for Governor again in 2012. A primary challenge in 2012 might be a good chance for Schweitzer to increase his political profile, possibly setting himself up for a future run even if he didn't win the 2012 nomination.

4) Dennis Kucinich: Quite simply, I could see Kucinich being a modern day Lyndon Larouche. I wouldn't be at all shocked to see Kucinich throw his hat in regardless of the political climate at the time.

Any thoughts? Any other potential candidates?

[Lincoln Republican]

No serious challenger will come forward to run against the President for the party nomination in 2012.

If anyone does, it will only be fringe type candidates, who will not be taken seriously.

Besides, the Democrats do not want to be seen as the party that unceremoniously dumped the first black President.  That could unleash unforseen consequences for the Democrats amongst their base.

[ScottM]

No serious challenger will come forward to run against the President for the party nomination in 2012.

If anyone does, it will only be fringe type candidates, who will not be taken seriously.

Just curious, but what makes you come to that conclusion? Considering history (1980 and 1992), if the incumbent is viewed as weak, a primary challenge is a real possibility.

Not trying to dismiss your opinion, I'm just interested in your reasoning.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

You forgot to mention Howard Dean.

[Lincoln Republican]

No serious challenger will come forward to run against the President for the party nomination in 2012.

If anyone does, it will only be fringe type candidates, who will not be taken seriously.

Besides, the Democrats do not want to be seen as the party that unceremoniously dumped the first black President.  That could unleash unforseen consequences for the Democrats amongst their base.

(In reply to the question from ScottM)

I have added to my original post as above.  That, basically, is my reasoning why I believe Obama will not be challenged for the nomination in any serious way by any serious opponent in 2012.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Obama won't face any serious primary challenge. He's pretty much certain to win the nomination.

[ScottM]

You forgot to mention Howard Dean.

Interesting suggestion. How well do you think Dean might fare? He has the charisma for sure, but I still think of "the scream" when I think of him. Certainly a possibilty, though.

[Lincoln Republican]

Howard Dean is a loyal Democrat.

There is no way he will challenge the President for the nomination.

[tarheel-leftist85]

he won't face a primary challenge:  anybody still left in the party is a corporatist Obamabot, or is so blinded by identity politics that they can't see that they are being bought by banksters.

that doesn't mean he won't face a significant leftist challenge outside of the party--plenty of "bitter" working-class people would be willing to ditch the sycophantic legacy parties and their prettyboiz for more egalitarian policy:  medicare for all, breaking up or nationalizing banks, 50+% capital gains/inheritance above $1mil., no more mercenaries, nationalizing utilities, rescinding most/all of our free trade agreements, de-privatizing education, etc.

i think the 2010s will be for Democrats™ and Rethugz what the 1850s were for the Whigs, as people begin to realize the rent-seeking behavior of our corporatist, duopolistic political parties.

[Zarn]

I would laugh, if Kucinich won the primary.

[Lincoln Republican]

I would laugh, if Kucinich won the primary.

So would I.

The Republican nominee would sweep to victory.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Nobody is gonna challenge Obama; I'd support Kucinich if he ran, though.

[Zarn]

I would laugh, if Kucinich won the primary.

So would I.

The Republican nominee would sweep to victory.

If he won the primary, it more than likely because he managed to hypnotize the voters with Elizabeth's looks. In that case, the Republican party would need an attractive redhead of its own somewhere on the ticket or as a significant other. LOL

If only First Lady was a separate vote.

[ScottM]

I would laugh, if Kucinich won the primary.

As would I. The only reason I listed him is that he does have some name recognition.

[Bo]

Nobody is gonna challenge Obama; I'd support the ghost of Scoop Jackson if he ran, though.

[Oakvale]

Kucinich might run some kind of fringe left-wing thing, but I really doubt there'll be a serious challenge.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Nobody is gonna challenge Obama; I'd support the ghost of Scoop Jackson if he ran, though.

Wow, that was really funny

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Nobody is gonna challenge Obama; I'd support Kucinich if he ran, though.

lol

[Rudy]

I am interested in other poster's opinions of Howard Dean's willingness to challenge the President. I am sure during the primary season he was personally, and publicly very supportive of Barack Obama, but after Mr. Obama was elected, could Mr. Dean have been somewhat "miffed" at Barack Obama choosing Rahm Emanuel (who was a frequent dissenter from Dean when he was DNC Chairman) as his Chief of Staff?

Some have even suggested that it was Emmanuel's guidance that prevented the now unemployed Vermont Governor from getting a Cabinet Position in the Obama Administration. And then of course there's Dean's frustration over the Democrats' progress on Health Care Reform. So I feel that Howard Dean has more personal and political reason then Dennis Kucinich to challenge an incumbent President.

[sentinel]

Some have even suggested that it was Emmanuel's guidance that prevented the now unemployed Vermont Governor from getting a Cabinet Position in the Obama Administration. And then of course there's Dean's frustration over the Democrats' progress on Health Care Reform. So I feel that Howard Dean has more personal and political reason then Dennis Kucinich to challenge an incumbent President.

Didn't Kucinich have a tough re-election battle in 2008 whether in the general or the primary? I remember hearing something like that...regardless, I don't think he'll run for a third time in a row.

As long as Obama amasses a healthy sized war chest and is still somewhat popular (40%+) I don't think he will be challenged...every President who has been challenged for the nomination has lost...Ford (Reagan), Carter (Kennedy), Bush Sr (Buchanan)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Nobody is gonna challenge Obama; I'd support Kucinich if he ran, though.

lol

I'm really sick of Obama

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Nobody is gonna challenge Obama; I'd support Kucinich if he ran, though.

lol

I'm really sick of Obama

So? It's still laughable that you'd support Kucinich (then again, I'm not sure what Obama's done to anger you).

[ScottM]

As long as Obama amasses a healthy sized war chest and is still somewhat popular (40%+) I don't think he will be challenged...every President who has been challenged for the nomination has lost...Ford (Reagan), Carter (Kennedy), Bush Sr (Buchanan)

True, but if a possible opponent thinks Obama is significantly damaging the party, that may pull someone into the race. Not totally dissimilar to Buchanan's challenging Bush in '92. Probably more likely if Obama's ratings are in the 30's (possible, I think), but not impossible.

[ScottM]

I am interested in other poster's opinions of Howard Dean's willingness to challenge the President. I am sure during the primary season he was personally, and publicly very supportive of Barack Obama, but after Mr. Obama was elected, could Mr. Dean have been somewhat "miffed" at Barack Obama choosing Rahm Emanuel (who was a frequent dissenter from Dean when he was DNC Chairman) as his Chief of Staff?

Some have even suggested that it was Emmanuel's guidance that prevented the now unemployed Vermont Governor from getting a Cabinet Position in the Obama Administration. And then of course there's Dean's frustration over the Democrats' progress on Health Care Reform. So I feel that Howard Dean has more personal and political reason then Dennis Kucinich to challenge an incumbent President.

Possible, I think. I wouldn't be entirely dismissive of the possibility of a challenge from Dean (assuming there's a challenge at all). I've heard the same rumors myself.

Had I thought a little bit longer about possible challengers, I probably would have thought of Dean. I would never say never to it.

[Eraserhead]

I'd support Dean if he ran but he wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell. A Clinton or Warner challenge would potentially be enough to get me to actively campaign for Obama. Schweitzer and Kucinich = lol.