Illinois Primary Thread

[Franzl]

I have no idea. It seems that the momentum is on Hynes's side, and the last Tribune poll had um only down 4.

If forced to pick, I'd say Hynes is more likely than not to defeat Quinn.


What do you all think? (I'm talking to you Lunar!)

[ill ind]

Hynes

Quinn is losing momentum.  The early release fiasco and the Harold Washington add have been devastating.

Ill Ind

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quinn when he proposed the fifty percent tax increase was doomed from the start.  The other issues are just sideshow to that tax increase.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hynes has the money and the momentum.

[Bo]

Hynes

[Meeker]

PPP has Hynes up by 1 now, 41-40

[Lunar]

What do you all think? (I'm talking to you Lunar!)

I haven't been following t he Hynes-Quinn race very closely the last  few months.

My guess is that the incumbent is at a disadvantage.

[Lunar]

Here's a good analysis of the race:

http://campaigndiaries.com/2010/01/26/one-week-to-go-to-illinois/

Governors across the country better be paying attention to what is happening in Illinois because Pat Quinn’s primary troubles are a testament to the many ways in which the economic crisis has endangered incumbents’ standing. Forced to take budget-cutting measures to adjust for declining revenues, most governors have gone down routes that can easily be attacked by their opponents. While targeting programs for the poor is often the easiest way out politically since the lower-class tends to not be organized, one of the solutions Quinn implemented - reducing prison costs - was bound to be exploited by his rivals.

Aimed at prisoners with short sentences, the Meritorious Good Time Push program allowed them to be paroled before their term ended, thus reducing the number of inmates incarcerated at any one time and by extension the costs associated with them. Yet, controversy erupted last month as the AP reported that many prisoners had received credit for time they served in county jails and were thus released from the state penitentiary weeks before the 61 days they were required to have served before qualifying for the program.

Quinn’s primary challenger, Comptroller Dan Hynes, immediately recognized the issue’s potential. Not only did he indict the governor’s responsibility in the mix-up, he also made the very existence of the program his main angle of attack, accusing Quinn of having failed to protect Illinois residents. Hynes has relentlessly attacked the governor over these issues in recent weeks, including at debates, which has put Quinn on the defensive - the governor ended up calling the early release program a “mistake” and tried to pin the blame on the state’s prisons director.

Taking pages out of George H. W. Bush’s playbook, Hynes is airing an ad that accuses Quinn of being indirectly responsible for a crime committed by an inmate who was released early. “This man was let out of prison early by Pat Quinn. He’s now been arrested for assaulting a woman for four hours, choking and beating her,” the narrator says. “A governor’s bad judgment does have consequences. It’s time to release Pat Quinn from his job.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jn2w5EwHsdE

However successful Hynes’s relentless focus on the prison program, none of his attacks has been as brutal, and none could come to define the primary as much as, his ad featuring former Chicago Mayor Harold Washington, a hero not only in the African-American community but also among reformers. The ad features 20-year old footage of Washington saying that he wish he had not hired Quinn as the city budget director; “Pat Quinn is a totally and completely undisciplined individual who thinks this government is nothing but a large easel on which to do his PR work,” Washington is heard saying.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QnuD6gojB4

This ad has dominated exchanges in the final days of the campaign past few days, making Quinn’s camp even more apoplectic as it was over the prison release attacks. Their response: This is a ludicrous attack considering the comptroller’s father Tom Hynes went all-out to oust Washington in the 1987 mayoral race. But there is no question that this is quite a damaging attack.

Smelling blood, Hynes has been blasting Quinn on many issues, and This Sun-Times column captures the spirit of the race; it’s certainly not surprising Hynes has been so successful at demolishing Quinn’s reputation given his family’s prominent role in Illinois’s Democratic machine, which surely gives his camp experience in taking care of political business. In fact, Quinn seems to be thinking about his opponent’s father quite a lot these days, as the governor went afterTom Hynes directly in their latest debate. “I think Pat Quinn has become disoriented,” Hynes responded. “He thinks he’s running against my father. I know you’ve been in politics 30 years, but my father retired 15 years ago. Maybe you should, too.” You can sense these two Democrats will be great friends once the primary is over.

Hynes’s attacks have taken their toll: What two months ago looked like it would be an easy victory by the new governor has turned into a toss-up, and it is likely that Hynes is pulling ahead.

This morning, PPP released the first poll to find Quinn trailing; while the margin is only 41-40, the momentum is all on the comptroller’s side. Yesterday, a new Chicago Tribune poll already had found Quinn sinking, since his 44-40 lead compared very unfavorably to his 49-23 early December lead; of course, Quinn is particularly vulnerable because he was never elected governor, but that is still a brutal turnaround. Seeking to drive the narrative of his momentum, Hynes released an internal poll of his own finding Quinn with a 44% to 37% lead, as well as a dismal 36% to 60% approval rating among Democrats. (The Chicago Tribune’s numbers were much better for Quinn, 43-31, though the topline results are worse.)

[Franzl]

Quinn has been getting some positive press despite everything.

The 1200 new jobs from Ford....and also the High Speed Rail money. I wonder if that'll help him at all.

[Lunar]

Quinn also got the endorsement of the Cook County Democratic Party

[Franzl]

Well, today's the day! Polls open in 1 hour.

[hawkeye59]

so... Hoffman or Giannoulias? I'm rooting for Hoffman, but I think he'll probably lose narrowly.

[Tender Branson]

Prediction:

Senate: Giannoulias (D) vs. Kirk (R)

Governor: Hynes (D) vs. Dillard (R)

[hawkeye59]

Prediction:

Senate: Giannoulias (D) vs. Kirk (R)

Governor: Hynes (D) vs. Dillard (R)

Agreed, except I think McKenna will win the Republican primary.

[Franzl]

so... Hoffman or Giannoulias? I'm rooting for Hoffman, but I think he'll probably lose narrowly.

I voted for Hoffman too, but I think Giannoulias is likely to win.

I'm still somewhat optimistic about Quinn, though, and I really hope he beats Hynes.

I also believe McKenna will win the GOP primary.

[Franzl]

Predictions: (although we really have little to base these on....)

Governor:

Quinn: 52
Hynes: 48

McKenna: 32
Ryan: 21
Dillard: 20
A...ski: 17
Brady: 10

Senate:

Giannoulias: 40
Hoffman: 36
Jackson: 21
Marshall: 2
Meister (who dropped out a few days ago): 1

Kirk: 65
Hughes: 30
Martin: 5

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here are my complete, random, likely-off predictions:

Gov:

Hynes - 53
Quinn - 47

McKenna - 27
Dillard - 22
Ryan - 20
Brady - 14
Andrewjzklsejysky - 12
Proft - 5

Sen:

Alexi - 39
Hoffman - 32
Jackson - 25
Other - 3

Kirk - 76
Hughes - 21
Other - 3

10th CD:

Dan Seals - 52
Julie Hamos - 37
Elliot Richardson - 11

Bob Dold - 36
Beth Coulson - 32
Dick Green - 27
Other - 5

14th CD:

Ethan Hastert - 65
Randy Hultgren - 35

[ill ind]

My predictions:

Governor D Hynes 53%
                   Quinn 47%

Governor R McKenna 26%
                   Dillard     21%
                   Ryan       17%
                   And......   15%
                   Brady      13%
                   Proft         8%

Senator D  Giannoulias 46%
                  Hoffman      36%
                  Jackson       18%

Senator R   Kirk             69%
                   Hughes      16%
         Everybody else    15%

We'll see how right or wrong I am

Ill_Ind

[Holmes]

I'm hoping for Hynes and Hoffman.

[Franzl]

Everyone seems to be predicting a Hynes win, although the margin (53-47) is the same as in Quinn's worst public poll yet.

I really do think this last week has been quite positive for Quinn....and I'm hoping and predicting that Quinn can come back and claim victory.

It's anyone's game of course.

[Franzl]

So far, a collective yawn in primary voting:

National political pundits have been busy trying to divine broad meaning from Illinois' Groundhog Day primary, but that noisy class of professional crystal ball gazers could be in for a challenge if an early collective yawn from voters continues through the day.

City election officials said turnout for the first hour of voting was extremely low. Jim Allen, communications director for the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners, said there were precincts all over the city that experienced as few as two voters coming through their doors.

"That's bad," he said. "There are very few voters coming out to cast a ballot. This could mean six more weeks of campaigning if the voters just see their shadows."

Cook County Clerk David Orr, who oversees election machinery in the suburbs, said morning turnout appeared "relatively slow," though it was too early to make any broad projections about how things might end up by the time the polls close at 7 p.m.

[Daniel Adams]

AP's result page is here, with county-level results for the Senate primaries here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hynes 55
Quinn 45

Dillard 28
McKenna 22
Ryan 21
Brady 13
Andrzejewski 11
Proft 5

Giannoulias 48
Hoffman 28
Jackson 21
Other 3

Kirk 80
Hughes 17
Other 3

Knowing nothing about the race I went with a Dillard victory just to be different.

[Eraserhead]

So what are the important differences between Giannoulias and Hoffman (if there are any)?

[Franzl]

So what are the important differences between Giannoulias and Hoffman (if there are any)?

As far as policy is concerned, none whatsoever. Both are liberal Democrats.