MA Senate - Special Election Results thread

[cinyc]

FWIW, here's my latest attempt at the MA CD results - imputing the CD Vote by the relative turnout of the 2 CDs in the 2008 election and differential from city Obama/McCain/Other percent.  (i.e. Boston Obama%-Boston CD 8 Obama% was added to the current Boston CD 8 Coakley%, and tallies computed backwards, etc.):



I'm sure it's not exact - but it's the best I can do.  There probably was an even more pronounced turnout differential than 2008 as well, especially in the minority areas of Boston which tend to be in CD 8.  I have no way of estimating that without actual data.

The results didn't shift much except in the Boston districts.  About 15,000 votes shifted from CD 8 to CD 9 - roughly 2/3rds of them Brown, 1/3 Coakley due to Boston CD 8's 5-point lower turnout relative to population in 2008.  The votes went more Brown because the Boston portion of CD 9 was 16 points more Republican in 2008 than the Boston portion of CD 8.

[rbt48]

So when will Brown be sworn in?  What is the deal with the SoS certifying his election?  Is it going to be a 3 week process?

I know, too many questions.

[Sam Spade]

Sent Al the 2010 vs. 2002 county swings, so hopefully we'll have a nice, cute town map to examine soon enough. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[jimrtex]

You're no Jack Kennedy

The last (and only previous) time that a Republican received more than 1 million votes for this seat was in 1952 when Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. lost to John Kennedy.

[Sam Spade]

2010 Senate vs. 2002 Governor (i.e. Romney swing) stuff I sent you, right?

It's actually more fascinating in map form than just on spreadsheet.

[cinyc]

Bristol, Plymouth and most of Worcester Counties more Brown, as well as suburban Springfield.  Metrowest Boston, the immediate Cape and Islands, Berkshire and Franklin Counties more Romney - as well as what looks to be the areas around Amherst in Hampshire County.

Berkshire County can be explained by it being a Democrat stronghold, Coakley originally hailing from there, and the fact that it's in the Albany TV market, meaning Brown ads didn't run there as often as in Boston or Springfield.

[rbt48]

Does anyone know when Brown will be sworn in office?

[Torie]

What is fascinating about the pretty map above, is the size of the percentage range, from -30 to +40. Wow.

[cinyc]

What is fascinating about the pretty map above, is the size of the percentage range, from -30 to +40. Wow.

The map is of change in total margin from 2002, not change in Brown percentage vs. Romney percentage.  For example, Brown's biggest increase was in Achushnet, Bristol County - a suburb of New Bedford.  Romney lost it 64-36 (-28).  Brown won it 57-43 (+14).   Total net swing was 40.  But Brown improved on the percentage Romney received by 20 points.

McCain lost Acushnet 60-40 (-20) and Weld lost it 66-34 (-32), so there was a huge overall swing there from the Democrats.

[Torie]

What is fascinating about the pretty map above, is the size of the percentage range, from -30 to +40. Wow.

The map is of change in total margin from 2002, not change in Brown percentage vs. Romney percentage.  For example, Brown's biggest increase was in Achushnet, Bristol County - a suburb of New Bedford.  Romney lost it 64-36 (-28).  Brown won it 57-43 (+14).   Total net swing was 40.  But Brown improved on the percentage Romney received by 20 points.

McCain lost Acushnet 60-40 (-20) and Weld lost it 66-34 (-32), so there was a huge overall swing there from the Democrats.

OK, -15 to +20. That is still quite a range.

[Sam Spade]

What is fascinating about the pretty map above, is the size of the percentage range, from -30 to +40. Wow.

The map is of change in total margin from 2002, not change in Brown percentage vs. Romney percentage.  For example, Brown's biggest increase was in Achushnet, Bristol County - a suburb of New Bedford.  Romney lost it 64-36 (-28).  Brown won it 57-43 (+14).   Total net swing was 40.  But Brown improved on the percentage Romney received by 20 points.

McCain lost Acushnet 60-40 (-20) and Weld lost it 66-34 (-32), so there was a huge overall swing there from the Democrats.

OK, -15 to +20. That is still quite a range.

With some natural/obvious exceptions, I would say Brown's method of victory more mirrors Cellucci 1998 than Romney 2002.  Still, this is an excellent comparison map IMHO.

The real fun is comparing Weld 1990 to Brown 2010... 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The difference between Lawrence and other towns like it is quite interesting. So is the Friends-and-Neighbours effect in northern Berkshire county; note that it was only the area around North Adams that swung strongly to Coakley. That area is surrounded by towns that O'Brien did better in. Hilarious.

[Torie]

The difference between Lawrence and other towns like it is quite interesting.

Why is it interesting, and in any event, what do you think caused it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The difference between Lawrence and other towns like it is quite interesting.

Why is it interesting, and in any event, what do you think caused it?

Not a clue. Hopefully one of the MA posters have an idea.

[Torie]

The difference between Lawrence and other towns like it is quite interesting.

Why is it interesting, and in any event, what do you think caused it?

Not a clue. Hopefully one of the MA posters have an idea.

Maybe Lawrence is a white blue collar island surrounding by a sea of bourgeoisie liberals?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The difference between Lawrence and other towns like it is quite interesting.

Why is it interesting, and in any event, what do you think caused it?

Not a clue. Hopefully one of the MA posters have an idea.

Maybe Lawrence is a white blue collar island surrounding by a sea of bourgeoisie liberals?

Wouldn't that make it more likely to swing under the circumstances of the election?

[Torie]

Oh Lawrence had a smaller swing to Brown than the surrounding areas, and I got it reversed?  Maybe if so it is due to the minority vote. Doesn't Lawrence have a lot of Cambodians or something?

[Sam Spade]

Oh Lawrence had a smaller swing to Brown than the surrounding areas, and I got it reversed?  Maybe if so it is due to the minority vote. Doesn't Lawrence have a lot of Cambodians or something?

I seem to remember it having more minorities, especially Hispanics, than the other type towns Al is referencing.

Turnout was some of the worst compared to 2002 in state also, just FWIW, at only 86.93% of 2002. (statewide was 102.50% of 2002, Essex, as a whole, was only 99.67%)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Lawrence is majority-Hispanic, according to Wikipedia.

[cinyc]

Lawrence had the highest percentage of Hispanics of any Massachusetts town, according to the 2000 census - 60%.  Only Chelsea (48%), near Boston, and Holyoke (41%), near Springfield, come close.

I've plotted the two-party Brown % - Romney % versus town Median Household income.  Notice the linear trend - with the caveat that it is simple one-slope linear and the tail pulls the line more downward than it perhaps should.

[ajc0918]

Scott Brown raised $13 Million and has $4 Million cash on hand.

According to the Boston Globe Scott Brown ended up raising $13M and has an astonishing $4M on hand with two years left to pad that amount before coming up for reelection.
Brown raised so much late money - about $1 million a day via the Internet at the end - that he couldn't spend it all. He ended the campaign with an estimated $4 million in his campaign account, spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said. The campaign's original budget was $1.2 million, but it ultimately raised about $13 million. With a flush campaign account, Brown will enter office in a stronger position to defend against an almost certain challenge in 2012.
The Republican insurgent outspent Coakley, roughly $8.7 million to $5.1 million during the six weeks following the primaries, according to estimates provided by the campaigns. Coakley also received help from the national and state Democratic Party committees, who spent about $4.3 million, mostly on advertising and all of it in the last week, to prop up her wilting candidacy. Their GOP counterparts did not pay for any ads to help Brown. Outside interest groups also played a major role, with seven organizations spending nearly $2.7 million to help Brown, and five others spending more than $1.8 million on Coakley's behalf.

I knew they were raising some serious cash in my conversations with Beth Lindstrom and Priscilla Ruzzo. But this is astonishing.  The discipline this campaign had in keeping the amount of money a secret was amazing.  Martha didn't know what she was going up against. 

http://redmassgroup.com/diary/6998/brown-has-4m-cash-on-hand

[Vepres]

Scott Brown raised $13 Million and has $4 Million cash on hand.

According to the Boston Globe Scott Brown ended up raising $13M and has an astonishing $4M on hand with two years left to pad that amount before coming up for reelection.
Brown raised so much late money - about $1 million a day via the Internet at the end - that he couldn't spend it all. He ended the campaign with an estimated $4 million in his campaign account, spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said. The campaign's original budget was $1.2 million, but it ultimately raised about $13 million. With a flush campaign account, Brown will enter office in a stronger position to defend against an almost certain challenge in 2012.
The Republican insurgent outspent Coakley, roughly $8.7 million to $5.1 million during the six weeks following the primaries, according to estimates provided by the campaigns. Coakley also received help from the national and state Democratic Party committees, who spent about $4.3 million, mostly on advertising and all of it in the last week, to prop up her wilting candidacy. Their GOP counterparts did not pay for any ads to help Brown. Outside interest groups also played a major role, with seven organizations spending nearly $2.7 million to help Brown, and five others spending more than $1.8 million on Coakley's behalf.

I knew they were raising some serious cash in my conversations with Beth Lindstrom and Priscilla Ruzzo. But this is astonishing.  The discipline this campaign had in keeping the amount of money a secret was amazing.  Martha didn't know what she was going up against. 

http://redmassgroup.com/diary/6998/brown-has-4m-cash-on-hand

It demonstrates the potential the internet has for fundraising.

[Sam Spade]

Scott Brown raised $13 Million and has $4 Million cash on hand.

According to the Boston Globe Scott Brown ended up raising $13M and has an astonishing $4M on hand with two years left to pad that amount before coming up for reelection.
Brown raised so much late money - about $1 million a day via the Internet at the end - that he couldn't spend it all. He ended the campaign with an estimated $4 million in his campaign account, spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said. The campaign's original budget was $1.2 million, but it ultimately raised about $13 million. With a flush campaign account, Brown will enter office in a stronger position to defend against an almost certain challenge in 2012.
The Republican insurgent outspent Coakley, roughly $8.7 million to $5.1 million during the six weeks following the primaries, according to estimates provided by the campaigns. Coakley also received help from the national and state Democratic Party committees, who spent about $4.3 million, mostly on advertising and all of it in the last week, to prop up her wilting candidacy. Their GOP counterparts did not pay for any ads to help Brown. Outside interest groups also played a major role, with seven organizations spending nearly $2.7 million to help Brown, and five others spending more than $1.8 million on Coakley's behalf.

I knew they were raising some serious cash in my conversations with Beth Lindstrom and Priscilla Ruzzo. But this is astonishing.  The discipline this campaign had in keeping the amount of money a secret was amazing.  Martha didn't know what she was going up against. 

http://redmassgroup.com/diary/6998/brown-has-4m-cash-on-hand

It demonstrates the potential the internet has for fundraising.

Agree very much. 

Personally, I think Scott Brown may have taken the Dean/Obama/Paul internet fundraising model.  Raising whatever the number was, $10 million in 15 days, is rather impressive.

[Sam Spade]

For a little while, I'm going to be posting interesting facts about this race and its comparison to other races, both recent and past...

Today's interesting observation:

Turnout is often important...

There were 93 towns/cities where McCain performed 10%+ his final statewide total of 35.99% (45.99% or more) and 59 towns/cities where Obama performed 10%+ his final statewide total of 61.80% (71.80% or more).

2010 Turnout statewide vs. 2008 Presidential election: 72.99%
Turnout in McCain-strong towns/cities: 77.66%
Turnout in Obama-strong towns/cities:  66.57%