2012 Prediction Map

[Ban my account ffs!]

As in '08, the rising tide of racism will be neutralized by the rising tide of liberal white guilt.

Yeah.. I only voted for Obama because he's half black

[Free Palestine]

Obama vs Romney vs Palin

As much as I dislike Obama I don't think he's any worse than some of the other people who want to be president.

Obama vs Huckabee

Wishful thinking.  I don't know how many people would actually realize that Huckabee is a grade-A crazy.

Gary Johnson will NOT get nominated by the Republican Party.  However:

[Bo]

Obama will not win WA, MI, and NJ while losing RI.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Obama will not win WA, MI, and NJ while losing RI.

Regardless of the particular circumstances of that map, you cannot accurately predict how one state will go based on how other states vote.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Oh no, dude, Pawlenty would be literally screwed in MN.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Oh no, dude, Pawlenty would be literally screwed in MN.

lol

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Oh no, dude, Pawlenty would be literally screwed in MN.

Literally?

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Fixed.

[sentinel]

Ok ok, I'm proposing this -- Obama's approval rating is 54%. Unemployment is decreasing, but is 7.5% (2.5% above normal, but 3% lower than 2010)

I think this is somewhat realistic.

Obama v. Romney

355 Obama, 183 Romney with 2008 numbers.

[President Mitt]

Ok ok, I'm proposing this -- Obama's approval rating is 54%. Unemployment is decreasing, but is 7.5% (2.5% above normal, but 3% lower than 2010)

I think this is somewhat realistic.

Obama v. Romney

355 Obama, 183 Romney with 2008 numbers.

KY, WV?

lol

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Ok ok, I'm proposing this -- Obama's approval rating is 54%. Unemployment is decreasing, but is 7.5% (2.5% above normal, but 3% lower than 2010)

I think this is somewhat realistic.

Obama v. Romney

355 Obama, 183 Romney with 2008 numbers.

KY, WV?

lol

MT? I know it was close in 2008, but I don't see it's gping to Democrat who's already an incumbent

[Free Palestine]

I think this is somewhat realistic.

[CatoMinor]

I think this is somewhat realistic.

how does Obama lose N. Carolina while picking up Kentucky and W. Virgina?

[sentinel]

I think this is somewhat realistic.

how does Obama lose N. Carolina while picking up Kentucky and W. Virgina?

I was talking about the economic conditions as being realistic. I'm pushing it with Kentucky and West Virginia mainly due to concern over a Mormon candidate.

Although, I don't think North Carolina will vote for Obama again (unless his approval is higher), nor Indiana. Montana might be in play.

[Bo]

I think this is somewhat realistic.

how does Obama lose N. Carolina while picking up Kentucky and W. Virgina?

I was talking about the economic conditions as being realistic. I'm pushing it with Kentucky and West Virginia mainly due to concern over a Mormon candidate.

Although, I don't think North Carolina will vote for Obama again (unless his approval is higher), nor Indiana. Montana might be in play.

I agree with you about IN & MT, but I think Obama might win NC again in 2012 since many minorities and young professionals (who typically vote Democratic) have been moving there.

[sentinel]

I think this is somewhat realistic.

how does Obama lose N. Carolina while picking up Kentucky and W. Virgina?

I was talking about the economic conditions as being realistic. I'm pushing it with Kentucky and West Virginia mainly due to concern over a Mormon candidate.

Although, I don't think North Carolina will vote for Obama again (unless his approval is higher), nor Indiana. Montana might be in play.

I agree with you about IN & MT, but I think Obama might win NC again in 2012 since many minorities and young professionals (who typically vote Democratic) have been moving there.

I hope you're right, but those are the same people who don't come out to vote. The turn out rate for 18-25 year olds in 2008 as a lot more than in 2004, but its still extremely small...it's somewhere in the low 20's (%).

WV and KY were definitely pushing it though. It's unlikely but eh.

[Free Palestine]

The people lov Obama and health care.  We's out of Iraq and we have flying cars.  Obama wins every state except for the South, but who cares what they think?  They're rassists so we'll kick them out of the union for not voting for Obama.  Missouri only votes Republican because the Republicans messed up their voting machines.  Alaska voted Republican because they're retards.  And Florida?  F-ck them.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

The people lov Obama and health care.  We's out of Iraq and we have flying cars.  Obama wins every state except for the South, but who cares what they think?  They're rassists so we'll kick them out of the union for not voting for Obama.  Missouri only votes Republican because the Republicans messed up their voting machines.  Alaska voted Republican because they're retards.  And Florida?  F-ck them.

Oh, I thought you were PBrower or sirnick for a second there.

[DS0816]

ELECTION 2012

Whomever (R-Wherever) vs. Barack Obama (D-Illinois)

02.01.2010 | I’m not including percentages on states; but this electoral map is one in which 44th president Barack Obama [D-Illinois] wins re-election in part by having doubled his 7.25 margin, from 2008, over his 2012 Republican opponent in the U.S. popular vote.

In this scenario, Obama carries the same states, from 2008 (yes, even Indiana!), but adds on with numerous others. So Obama would win by approximately 15 points. If it’s really an unelectable Republican—like Sarah Palin—he could render it difficult for the GOP nominee to reach 40 percent of the U.S. popular vote.

States appearing in red are Republican. They’re ones carried in 2008 by John McCain [R-Arizona] over 20 points—ones that are not only core-Republican but hardcore Republican.… The blue states are 2008 Democratic (again, my scenario, given the additional shift, is the loss of not one of these 28 states, Nebraska #02, and District of Columbia).… Green colored states are ones carried by McCain—including bellwether Missouri—but were ones in which the female vote was won by Obama.… Yellow states were carried by McCain in single digits, in which he won both genders, but with a 2004/2008 shift that was strongly Democratic. (In the case of South Carolina, Obama won the vote of the two youngest age groups, 18–29 and 30–44, which a Democrat can’t do without carrying the female vote among those demographics.)… Then there are those colored in orange; carried by McCain in double digits under 20 points, they have outside shots at going blue but are tough to imagine flipping. They’d be next in line if a massive landslide were to occur in the form of a popular president combined with a poor, unviable GOP candidate (and, perhaps, his/her political party).

[sentinel]

The people lov Obama and health care.  We's out of Iraq and we have flying cars.  Obama wins every state except for the South, but who cares what they think?  They're rassists so we'll kick them out of the union for not voting for Obama.  Missouri only votes Republican because the Republicans messed up their voting machines.  Alaska voted Republican because they're retards.  And Florida?  F-ck them.

Oh, I thought you were PBrower or sirnick for a second there.

Sorry for thinking Obama would be re-elected in 2012 by a smaller or similiar margin in comparison to 2008.

Just btw: http://www.gallup.com/poll/114016/state-states-political-party-affiliation.aspx

[Mechaman]

I said it before, and I'll say it again:

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party (Howard Stern and Jesus H. Christ) wins an electoral landslide over the Democrats (Barack Obama and Joseph Biden) and the Republicans(Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin). Everybody wakes up the next day with hangovers and have the munchies. Snack vendors nationwide rejoice.

[DS0816]

The people lov Obama and health care.  We’s out of Iraq and we have flying cars.  Obama wins every state except for the South, but who cares what they think?  They’re rassists so we’ll kick them out of the union for not voting for Obama.  Missouri only votes Republican because the Republicans messed up their voting machines.  Alaska voted Republican because they’re retards.  And Florida?  F-ck them.

In your 2012 re-election scenario, President Barack Obama would retain Florida, no problem, especially since it has been voting the same in all elections since the first post-World War II election of 1948 as leading bellwether Ohio (with just one exception: Bill Clinton swung Ohio hard enough to win it in 1992 but fell short just under 2 points in shifting Fla. away from George Bush; Clinton picked it up in his 1996 re-election). And Obama did win the vote of both genders in Fla. (as well as Ohio).…

• Missouri, which John McCain held by only 3,903 votes (.13) would flip. Its bellwether status’s letdown, in 2008, was similar to 2000 New Mexico where Bush didn’t shift N.M. far enough to flip it but picked it up in 2004; Obama found that experience with Mo. in 2008, and he would pick it up in 2012.…

• Georgia, 5.2 points for McCain after Bush won it in a 16.5 landslide (in 2004), would flip because Obama won the female vote. He’d increase the female vote margin and likely would carry males as well…

• And if Obama were to win Utah (which McCain carried by 28 points, a 40-percent reduction off the 45-point Bush margin), there would be plenty of others you’ve indicated as willing to stick with the Republicans—especially the No. 2 most-populated state of Texas (which McCain carried by over 11 points, a 50-percent decline of Bush’s 23-point margin in 2004)—that would get carried in the Democratic column.…

• South Carolina would also flip to the Democrats; Obama won the 18–29 vote in the Palmetto State but, surprisingly, didn’t pull that off in the neighboring Peach Tree State. So with Ga. and S.C. the only two states along the Atlantic not carried in 2008 by Obama (which was also the case with 1964 Lyndon Johnson), he’d picked them up and sweep that entire area.…

• And then you have Alabama (21 points for McCain) and Mississippi (13 points for McCain).…

• And Arkansas (19 points for McCain) and Louisiana (18 points for McCain).…

• And then there’s Alaska (21 points for McCain)—but, like Hawaii, an unelectable candidate of the political party, to which Alaskans default in presidential elections, is what would drive it to the other side. Your scenario makes this possible.…

• At this rate Oklahoma—a 2-to-1 margin of victory in which McCain carried every county—appears to be the only sure bet to hold for the GOP.…

Well, let’s just stop here and call this scenario of yours a “Massive Obama Landslide Re-election,” in which he garners an minimum 20-point margin of victory—an additional 12.75 points (again, minimum) on top of his 2008 margin of 7.25 (over McCain)—in the U.S. popular vote. It translates into a minimum of 500 electoral votes.

[pbrower2a]

One way to rule out someone posing as me: I do not use profanity. The sharpest word that I use is either d@mn or "bullhist" (note the metathesis).

[DemocratsVictory2008]

Obama vs Generic R with 53% approval

[Psychic Octopus]

The people lov Obama and health care.  We’s out of Iraq and we have flying cars.  Obama wins every state except for the South, but who cares what they think?  They’re rassists so we’ll kick them out of the union for not voting for Obama.  Missouri only votes Republican because the Republicans messed up their voting machines.  Alaska voted Republican because they’re retards.  And Florida?  F-ck them.

In your 2012 re-election scenario, President Barack Obama would retain Florida, no problem, especially since it has been voting the same in all elections since the first post-World War II election of 1948 as leading bellwether Ohio (with just one exception: Bill Clinton swung Ohio hard enough to win it in 1992 but fell short just under 2 points in shifting Fla. away from George Bush; Clinton picked it up in his 1996 re-election). And Obama did win the vote of both genders in Fla. (as well as Ohio).…

• Missouri, which John McCain held by only 3,903 votes (.13) would flip. Its bellwether status’s letdown, in 2008, was similar to 2000 New Mexico where Bush didn’t shift N.M. far enough to flip it but picked it up in 2004; Obama found that experience with Mo. in 2008, and he would pick it up in 2012.…

• Georgia, 5.2 points for McCain after Bush won it in a 16.5 landslide (in 2004), would flip because Obama won the female vote. He’d increase the female vote margin and likely would carry males as well…

• And if Obama were to win Utah (which McCain carried by 28 points, a 40-percent reduction off the 45-point Bush margin), there would be plenty of others you’ve indicated as willing to stick with the Republicans—especially the No. 2 most-populated state of Texas (which McCain carried by over 11 points, a 50-percent decline of Bush’s 23-point margin in 2004)—that would get carried in the Democratic column.…

• South Carolina would also flip to the Democrats; Obama won the 18–29 vote in the Palmetto State but, surprisingly, didn’t pull that off in the neighboring Peach Tree State. So with Ga. and S.C. the only two states along the Atlantic not carried in 2008 by Obama (which was also the case with 1964 Lyndon Johnson), he’d picked them up and sweep that entire area.…

• And then you have Alabama (21 points for McCain) and Mississippi (13 points for McCain).…

• And Arkansas (19 points for McCain) and Louisiana (18 points for McCain).…

• And then there’s Alaska (21 points for McCain)—but, like Hawaii, an unelectable candidate of the political party, to which Alaskans default in presidential elections, is what would drive it to the other side. Your scenario makes this possible.…

• At this rate Oklahoma—a 2-to-1 margin of victory in which McCain carried every county—appears to be the only sure bet to hold for the GOP.…

Well, let’s just stop here and call this scenario of yours a “Massive Obama Landslide Re-election,” in which he garners an minimum 20-point margin of victory—an additional 12.75 points (again, minimum) on top of his 2008 margin of 7.25 (over McCain)—in the U.S. popular vote. It translates into a minimum of 500 electoral votes.

...joke post...