2012 Prediction Map

[Psychic Octopus]

What is your Prediction Map for 2012, at least at this point?  This should be fun...

[auburntiger]

This is Obama vs. Romney

GOP gains: Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire

Colorado - I just feel like Obama has really pissed off alot of independents out here. To add to that, the governor's race and senate races this year may very well go Republican, which fuels hope for regaining this state

Indiana - I think this was a complete fluke, and any slight movement in the GOP direction will shift it Republican again

Ohio - I don't think Obama's really that popular here. The state "trended" Republican in 2008 depsite Obama's win. Completely up in the air, but I think Ohio will become more of a GOP-leaning state in the future. Currently, the polls have Strickland losing?

North Carolina - definitely trending Democratic, but like Indiana, slight movement in the GOP direction will shift this one as well.

Florida - Obama did poorly relatively to his performance nationwide. A candidate like Romney can do well here in Florida. Typically, we are Republican anyway.

New Hampshire - home state advantage? Not really sure? Similar to Colorado - pissing off lots of independents causes a 50/50 split putting Romney on top



Dems gain: Missouri


The reason I think Missouri would go Obama in this scenario is that GOP turnout will be lower because of Romney's mormonism (tragic I know), but Republicans here are similar to those in Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, the only exception is there aren't as many. Speculation, but Missouri Dems may turnout greater because of how narrowly Obama lost the state.

[Mr. Morden]

This is Obama vs. Romney

EVs will of course be different in 2012.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

What is your Prediction Map for 2012, at least at this point?  This should be fun...

Depends a lot on who the candidates are....

[useful idiot]

Romney:

[auburntiger]

This is Obama vs. Romney

EVs will of course be different in 2012.

Yeah, but I don't know how to change them

[useful idiot]

Palin:

[Mr.Phips]

Obama vs. Romney

This is my hope anyway.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Romney vs. Obama

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Obama vs. Palin

[Psychic Octopus]

Presumably Romney would pick an evangelical as a running mate, he'd probably win Virginia and North Carolina. Why Nevada? I can see him beating Obama there.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Huckabee vs. Obama

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Johnson vs. Obama

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama v. Satan (Romney):

[Lief 🗽]

[Psychic Octopus]

My prediction for 2012 may seem wildly unlikely now, but I contend that Obama's numbers will keep decreasing. I think that this will be the result, although obviously if the election was held today things would be far different:

Yep, that's what I got. I think that Romney would choose Thune as a running mate, in an effort to gain support from the religious right. Obama, by this time, has an approval rating of 43%. I think that Romney skips Iowa and wins New Hampshire and Michigan, letting Palin and Huckabee battle it out for the voters. He wins the nomination just after Super Tuesday. Romney consistently leads Obama, who faces minor challenges of his own. There is concern about his flip flops, but Obama's charges aren't able to destroy him.

As for the states, he picks up most of the Midwest, with narrow victories over Obama in Minnesota and Iowa. He wins Michigan and Pennsylvania by surprising margins. New Mexico is the upset of the night, as it was consistently going for Obama.

However, Romney runs more poorly in the South, but the difference isn't enough to get Obama elected.

[Psychic Octopus]

Johnson vs. Obama

Wow, Johnson winning and Romney not winning seems dumb. If anything, Johnson would lessen turnout among the GOP rank and file, especially among evangelicals. Mitt Romney is hardly the darling of them either, but that just seems impossible.

[Psychic Octopus]

I presume you expect Sarah Palin to win? Should she be nominated, that is my prediction as well. Except I think you may be a bit too kind to her.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Generic Confidence Map

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Johnson vs. Obama

Wow, Johnson winning and Romney not winning seems dumb. If anything, Johnson would lessen turnout among the GOP rank and file, especially among evangelicals. Mitt Romney is hardly the darling of them either, but that just seems impossible.

Actually Romney does win in the scenario I posted. And I agree, I was probably mistaken about Nevada.

[Psychic Octopus]

Johnson vs. Obama

Wow, Johnson winning and Romney not winning seems dumb. If anything, Johnson would lessen turnout among the GOP rank and file, especially among evangelicals. Mitt Romney is hardly the darling of them either, but that just seems impossible.

Actually Romney does win in the scenario I posted. And I agree, I was probably mistaken about Nevada.

He does? Let me check my EVCalc...

Ah, yes he does, my mistake. Got Florida Wrong.

[anvi]

If the election were held tomorrow, contested by Obama and Romney, I think the map would look like this, with Colorado and Iowa deciding it:

But, the election won't be tomorrow.  It will be more than two and a half years from now.

[Mr. Morden]

If the election were held tomorrow, contested by Obama and Romney, I think the map would look like this, with Colorado and Iowa deciding it:

But, the election won't be tomorrow.  It will be more than two and a half years from now.

GOP states will gain about 6 EVs following the 2010 census, which means that this map would be a GOP victory even if Obama wins both Iowa and Colorado.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Right now, I think the map would look something like this if it was Obama/Average Republican. Romney would probably do a little better, Palin a lot worse. 

[Poundingtherock]

For the person predicting a Palin victory, why would you expect her to win Florida but not Virginia?