2012 Prediction Map

[ajc0918]

If President Obama continues on his current path, Republicans will take 400+ electoral votes in 2012.  They win states such as OR, WA, MN and WI.  The victory of Scott Brown in 2010 fundamentally changes the Massachusetts electorate as he's able to convince his constituents to narrowly support the Republican ticket.  Delaware experiences a similar fate as Senator Castle, who will definitely win in the upcoming elections, convinces his constituents to turn on Vice President Biden.

A Republican victory akin to 1980 results and the country has shifted back to the Republicans for another generation.  High unemployment and failed liberal economics are the root cause.

Flip colors, blue for repubs, red for dems.

[Zarn]

Obama vs Johnson. Yes, I realize who wins.

288-250. Things could change, though. I just don't have enough faith in the American people, following the 2008 election.

Obama vs Romney

299-239

Obama vs Huckabee

290-248


My math could be wrong. I did this a bit quickly. I will try Pawlenty and Palin later.

[East Coast Republican]

If President Obama continues on his current path, Republicans will take 400+ electoral votes in 2012.  They win states such as OR, WA, MN and WI.  The victory of Scott Brown in 2010 fundamentally changes the Massachusetts electorate as he's able to convince his constituents to narrowly support the Republican ticket.  Delaware experiences a similar fate as Senator Castle, who will definitely win in the upcoming elections, convinces his constituents to turn on Vice President Biden.

A Republican victory akin to 1980 results and the country has shifted back to the Republicans for another generation.  High unemployment and failed liberal economics are the root cause.

Flip colors, blue for repubs, red for dems.

Yeah I know.  I did that on purpose-just like my prediction was mocking pbrower.

I actually want to take this time to state that all maps I post will use the official colors for each party: Blue for Democrats and Red for Republicans.

[pbrower2a]

This is a scenario I devised on the assumption that the President's approval ratings continue to drop.

Barack Obama/Joe Biden vs. Mike Huckabee/Scott Brown

Republicans: 274
Democrats: 264

You cannot predict a trend in approval ratings lasting more than a couple of months.

1. It's the economy, stupid. People vote on pocket-book issues.

People don't have to see a full recovery by 2012 to develop optimism in place of fear.

2. War and peace. We are getting troops out of Iraq as their need becomes less obvious. We are going in deeper in Afghanistan, which makes that not so much a bargain... but should the Surge in Afghanistan work, then President Obama has solved a problem that he has inherited -- with an exclamation point.

3. Scandals. It's good to avoid them, for obvious reasons.

4. The presence or absence of a challenge from the Left. If a Nader-like candidate wins 5% of the vote in 2012, then Obama is cooked.

5. Strength or weakness of the Republican opponent. The mediocre-to-dreadful George W. Bush won election because his opponent fell for some baited traps. Should the GOP run someone from the ideological fringe, then that candidate will lose. The Republicans must run someone who can appeal to "moderate" voters in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan to force President Obama to campaign in his own "must-win" states.

6. Electoral fraud. God help us should that happen.   

7. Competence of the campaign. If Obama goes after Texas when a combination of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan is easier to get but on the brink of losing -- then he will lose. Obama had a superb electoral machine in 2008, and I fully expect him to bring it out of mothballs in 2012.

[JerryBrown2010]

Obama vs Republican

(D) 51%
(R) 48%

Obama One Terms:

Biden vs Republican

(R)50%
(D)49%


Hillary vs Republican

(D) 51%
(R) 47%

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

[live free or die]

The GOP does not have a candidate that can achieve a landslide.

[SvenssonRS]

@pbrower, due to the size of the quote - Hence why I said 'assumption.' I'm not predicting, I'm just assuming. That's all. You have no right to call me stupid in the first argument of your post simply because I made an assumption. If you honestly think you do, well, thanks for emphasizing why I left your party.

[MK]

Obama/ Biden      Palin/ Thune ??


Unemployment is 7%  by  summer 2011 and Palin runs a awful tea bagger campaign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Zarn]

Projected base maps are even more useless than base maps.

Huckabee and Palin give no base advantage, whatsoever. The states that like them more, don't like Obama anyway.

Johnson, Romney, or Pawlenty vs Obama

Huckabee vs Obama

Palin vs Obama

[hawkeye59]

Obama vs. Romney

Colorado and Virginia could go either way
Obama vs. Huckabee

Florida's a tossup
Obama vs. Palin:

Obama vs. Johnson:

Believe it or not, most Americans are not libertarians.

[Zarn]

Most Americans aren't liberals, conservatives, or centrists, either.

[DS0816]

If President Obama continues on his current path, Republicans will take 400+ electoral votes in 2012.  They win states such as OR, WA, MN and WI.  The victory of Scott Brown in 2010 fundamentally changes the Massachusetts electorate as he’s able to convince his constituents to narrowly support the Republican ticket.  Delaware experiences a similar fate as Senator Castle, who will definitely win in the upcoming elections, convinces his constituents to turn on Vice President Biden.

A Republican victory akin to 1980 results and the country has shifted back to the Republicans for another generation.  High unemployment and failed liberal economics are the root cause.

Flip colors, blue for repubs, red for dems.

Yeah I know.  I did that on purpose-just like my prediction was mocking pbrower.

I actually want to take this time to state that all maps I post will use the official colors for each party: Blue for Democrats and Red for Republicans.

I’ve been using the commonly recognized colors as well: Red for Republican; Blue for Democratic.

The only disagreement I have with your scenario is with California. I think it would flip as well. What you’re suggesting is a tidal wave; and I think Calif. would be gone as well.

[tarheel-leftist85]

[hawkeye59]

Most Americans aren't liberals, conservatives, or centrists, either.

I'm just saying that people like Libertas think that Johnson could win. He isn't well known enough.

[Psychic Octopus]

Dark Red: Obama Ahead By >12
Regular Red: Obama Ahead By >7
Light Red: Obama Ahead By >2
Gray: A Pure Tossup
Light Blue: Romney Ahead By >2
Regular Blue: Romney Ahead By >7
Dark Blue: Romney Ahead By >12

Of course, this isn't really taking Vice Presidential Picks into account, but let's say, either Obama or Romney chose a governor of one of the light red/blue states or gray states, it would move in their favor. Just a guess.

Btw, this is done using Obama's current approvals. They will either be higher, or lower, or the same, in 2012. I'm inclined to think that they will decline into the low 40s, then recover somewhat into the mid 40s, but it won't be enough to give him or either side a "landslide".

[Vepres]

Gary Johnson or another fiscal conservative wins 40+ states.

[Zarn]

Most Americans aren't liberals, conservatives, or centrists, either.

I'm just saying that people like Libertas think that Johnson could win. He isn't well known enough.

That could change.

[live free or die]

[Mr. Morden]

Most Americans aren't liberals, conservatives, or centrists, either.

I'm just saying that people like Libertas think that Johnson could win. He isn't well known enough.

That could change.

Obviously if he were the Republican presidential nominee (which is the scenario contemplated in Hawkeye's map) that would change.

[Side note: He's not going to be the nominee though.]

[hawkeye59]

Most Americans aren't liberals, conservatives, or centrists, either.

I'm just saying that people like Libertas think that Johnson could win. He isn't well known enough.

That could change.

Obviously if he were the Republican presidential nominee (which is the scenario contemplated in Hawkeye's map) that would change.

[Side note: He's not going to be the nominee though.]

Exactly.

[sentinel]

Most Americans aren't liberals, conservatives, or centrists, either.

Actually, most people are liberal, conservative or centrist regardless of their knowledge of political ideology.

[opebo]

The most likely outcome is this narrow loss - the rising tide of racism trumps the improving economy:

[rebeltarian]

As in '08, the rising tide of racism will be neutralized by the rising tide of liberal white guilt.