2012 Prediction Map

[Vosem]

Romney/Thune narrowly beats Obama/Biden...

[muon2]

If you want to use a better map for 2012, you are welcome to the following based on my projections. The colors represent the changes from the 2000-2008 map.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[ConservativeIllini]

This would be a Pub victory with the new EVs, no?

[JSojourner]

The grey states are the ones I am unsure of if the election were held today.  Virginia is supposed to be tracking Democratic but I am not ready to buy that until we have another Presidential election. 

Missouri was close in 2008 but I am comfortable declaring it Republican.  That would change, of course, if Independent voters decide the President is doing well.

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Palin

Palin wins 10% or more
Palin wins 5.0-9.9%
Palin wins under 5%
Obama wins under 5%
Obama wins 5.0%-9.9%
Obama wins 10% to 40%
Obama wins over 40%

Nebraska splits its electoral votes, NE-01 and NE-02 going to Obama

Utah is no mistake; Sarah Palin says something stupid about Mormonism, and Mormons in Utah show her that even Utah can vote for a Democrat who says a few nice things about Mormons and their economic ways when a Republican nominee offends Mormon sensibilities.

[You kip if you want to...]

[Kaine for Senate '18]

342-196.

[5280]

Obama vs Romney

[Inmate Trump]

I think that both Romney's as well as Obama's chances of winning election and reelection respectively are overrated by many posters.

I think it would be a nailbiter either way.

[pbrower2a]

Obama, 54% approval rating, interstate polarization greatly reduced:

Sacrificial Lamb wins 10% or more
Sacrificial Lamb wins 5.0-9.9%
Sacrificial Lamb wins under 5%
Obama wins under 5%
Obama wins 5.0%-9.9%
Obama wins 10% to 40%
Obama wins over 40%

Obama wins 56-43 in the popular vote and 459-79 in the Electoral College. The divide between Kentucky and Tennessee (narrowest win and loss, respectively)  shows the line of victory. Obama slips a little in much of the northeastern quadrant of the US, but not enough to endanger anything other than Indiana.  

[Devilman88]

Obama vs. Republican

Republican Win.

[sentinel]

Obama vs. Republican

Republican Win.

Thats a tie in 2008 numbers.

[Devilman88]

Obama vs. Republican

Republican Win.

Thats a tie in 2008 numbers.

Ah, I didn't know that, but I'm not using 2008 numbers .

[tmthforu94]

Obama vs. Romney:

Obama vs. Palin:

Obama vs. Pawlenty

[CatoMinor]

Obama vs Johnson

[rebeltarian]

Can't speak for 2012 since so much can happen in 2 years, but I think a January 2010 election would look like this:

Obama 291
Republican 247

[You kip if you want to...]

Can't speak for 2012 since so much can happen in 2 years, but I think a January 2010 election would look like this:

Obama 291
Republican 247

It really depends on the candidate.

[Psychic Octopus]

Obama would probably win if the election was held today; But I think he's going down in 2012. I could be wrong, but things don't look like they are going his way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If it looks like obama will surely lose he will have no choice but to put Hillary on the ticket instead of Joe Biden and that will surely put more enthusisam on the ticket for Obama.

As for the map I think the GOP wins NC,MO,MT and IN governorships that takes those states off the table.

[Psychic Octopus]

If it looks like obama will surely lose he will have no choice but to put Hillary on the ticket instead of Joe Biden and that will surely put more enthusisam on the ticket for Obama.

As for the map I think the GOP wins NC,MO,MT and IN governorships that takes those states off the table.

Wouldn't that be seen as political opportunism? I think that if he put Hillary on the ticket it would be seen as a political ploy because he is losing. Just my two cents.

[Psychic Octopus]

Johnson vs. Obama

[RIP Robert H Bork]

If it looks like obama will surely lose he will have no choice but to put Hillary on the ticket instead of Joe Biden and that will surely put more enthusisam on the ticket for Obama.

As for the map I think the GOP wins NC,MO,MT and IN governorships that takes those states off the table.

Wouldn't that be seen as political opportunism? I think that if he put Hillary on the ticket it would be seen as a political ploy because he is losing. Just my two cents.

Bingo. The enthusiasm that he would get, if any, by selecting Clinton would be hugely outweighed by the flak that he would get for dropping Biden. Moreover, even without that factor there is no reason for Obama to run with Clinton. If he ever wanted that he would have picked her in 2008.

[SvenssonRS]

This is a scenario I devised on the assumption that the President's approval ratings continue to drop.

Barack Obama/Joe Biden vs. Mike Huckabee/Scott Brown

Republicans: 274
Democrats: 264

[East Coast Republican]

If President Obama continues on his current path, Republicans will take 400+ electoral votes in 2012.  They win states such as OR, WA, MN and WI.  The victory of Scott Brown in 2010 fundamentally changes the Massachusetts electorate as he's able to convince his constituents to narrowly support the Republican ticket.  Delaware experiences a similar fate as Senator Castle, who will definitely win in the upcoming elections, convinces his constituents to turn on Vice President Biden.

A Republican victory akin to 1980 results and the country has shifted back to the Republicans for another generation.  High unemployment and failed liberal economics are the root cause.