2012 Prediction Map

[Bo]

Obama vs Generic R with 53% approval

I think Obama would win OH, FL, and possibly IN & MO in this scenario. Obama won all these states (except MO, which he lost by an extremely narrow margin) in 2008 when he won 52.8% of the popular vote.

[pragmatic liberal]

Obama wins reelection:

No president since Wilson has won a second term with FEWER electoral votes than their first bid - and even Wilson increased his share of the popular vote.

2) Obama loses reelection:

[pbrower2a]

How Obama does at 50% to 54%:

At 50%, Obama wins everything in maroon, and the two states in ruby would be in doubt. He would need to win one of Colorado and Virginia

At 51%, Obama clearly wins Colorado and Virginia,  with Florida and Ohio (ordinary red) in doubt.

At 52%, Obama has picked up anything in any shade of red that isn't really pink... but definitely not Indiana, North Carolina, or the Second Congressional District of Nebraska (in pink).

At 53%, President Obama likely picks up those in pink that he won in 2008 and Missouri (yellow) at 53% of the vote, should the situation be much as in 2008.  At this point, Arizona (no favorite-son candidate) and Georgia (large military presence) get iffy. If Obama has successfully extricated American troops from Iraq and has started to do so in a dignified manner from Afghanistan, you might see Georgia go for him, perhaps instead of Indiana, Missouri, or North Carolina.  But that itself suggests changes in political reality that could be pushing President Obama into the 55+% range of the popular vote.

At 54% or more of the vote, realities are very different from the norm in elections of 2000, 2005, and 2008. The interstate polarization of votes has likely abated significantly -- in part because Obama has likely maxed out in states that he won by gigantic margins in 2008.  What Obama may be losing in the Blue Firewall (perhaps winning Michigan by 8% instead of 16%) he is picking up in states that decisively voted against him in 2008 -- most likely South Carolina, Texas, the two Dakotas, the First Congressional District of Nebraska, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Tennessee. The tendency of Montana to vote against the incumbent is overpowered at this point. The green colors indicate a landslide in  electoral votes, as a 54% popular vote implies one.

Appreciably beyond 55%? If you are a Republican,  you would probably rather see an automobile graveyard.  

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Pbrower, what states does Obama win with a more realistic share of the popular vote, like around 40%?

[pbrower2a]

Pbrower, what states does Obama win with a more realistic so unrealistic a share of the popular vote, like around 40%?

DC
Hawaii
Rhode Island
Vermont

49% -- take away all states not in maroon... and Iowa and New Hampshire.

48% -- take away Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as well, and probably Michigan because the economy is so f---ed up.

[Free Palestine]

No president since Wilson has won a second term with FEWER electoral votes than their first bid - and even Wilson increased his share of the popular vote.

Of course he did.  1912 was a three-way election where he only won a plurality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Confidence rating of the presidential map of 2012

[Inmate Trump]

Dark Red=Obama wins, no contest
Light Red=Swing state, leans Obama
Dark Blue=Generic Republican wins, no contest
Light Red=Swing state, leans Generic Republican
Gray=Too close to call

Obama - 262
Generic Republican - 256

Obama has (so far) set himself up for a very tight, challenging race in 2012.  I'm going to say he'll be in the low to mid 40s, but that's probably being optimistic.  He'll lose Indiana, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa, Florida--while the Republicans don't lose any states that they won in '08.   I think Ohio will the nail bitter.  If the election were held today, I'd say it goes for the Republican.  That, as well as the entire election, depends on who "Generic Republican" actually ends up being.  As much as the thought makes me cringe, I'd say Romney is in the best position to win the primary--in which case I'd bet he'd win Ohio in the general.

[tmthforu94]

I'm going to have to respectively disagree with you on Arkansas. Obama is not liked well there, and I think it will be as Republican as Utah and Oklahoma in 2012.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'm going to have to respectively disagree with you on Arkansas. Obama is not liked well there, and I think it will be as Republican as Utah and Oklahoma in 2012.

Not quite that far, but the GOP will likely break 60-61%.

[xavier110]

[Inmate Trump]

I'm going to have to respectively disagree with you on Arkansas. Obama is not liked well there, and I think it will be as Republican as Utah and Oklahoma in 2012.

I think you're probably right about that.  I also think that I should've made Michigan a toss up just like Ohio.  Obama isn't very popular there right now, and especially if Romney is the nominee for the Republicans, it's going to be pretty hard for Obama to keep the state in his category.  They've lost far, far too many jobs lately and they're on the verge of electing a Republican as governor.  But I only see it going to the Republicans if Romney's the nominee.  I really can't see any other Republican carrying the state.....unless Obama's numbers there just keep going down--which they're doing actually, so who knows.

[pbrower2a]

In all of these maps shades reflect the level of contestability of individual states. The lighter the colors, the hotter the contests will be in them. Dark shades indicate states in which little campaigning will be done; medium shades those in which campaigning will be over in October unless they trap one of the candidates to waste time and advertising there; light shades will be iffy one way or the other; white means "don't stay awake to find out".

Equal popular votes:

President Obama has been a mediocre President at best, and he has disappointed many who expected better results.  Facing a weak opponent he has a chance to get by (think of Dubya in 2004).


Colorado or Virginia will be very slow decisions, but in view of the likely reapportionment of electoral votes, it will all boil down to Virginia. Florida and Ohio will have been decided around 1AM on Wednesday for the Republican nominee, and Colorado won't be enough this time.  In 2008, Obama could have won election with fewer votes than McCain by winning Colorado -- now he could lose despite a plurality.

..........

At a 1% edge for Obama (probably 50-49):

Maybe he has gotten us out of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, only to have an economic setback as part of the usual cost of the end of a war. He wins because of Virginia and Colorado, with Florida and Ohio becoming "iffy".  If this scenario appears in September it offers the Republican nominee some chances for victory. November 1? Forget it.

.....

At 53-46, one might expect results to look much as they did in 2008, with Obama picking up Missouri. Not quite. Interstate polarization of the vote likely peaked in 2008, which still shows in Obama winning Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by lesser margins. Republican politicians have re-organized some with new candidates who can't be linked to Dubya. Obama is picking off the states that he would have picked off in 2008 by razor-thin margins, but what he is losing in the Blue Firewall he is gaining elsewhere, like Arizona and Georgia. Michigan does go into the safe zone (it is like Minnesota or Wisconsin except for having more African-American voters)

At this point, President Obama is winning firmly enough that few people predict a loss by him. With only states shaded in red (but not white), Obama ends up with about the same number of electoral votes in 2012 as in 2008. Arizona and Georgia together would put him in the range of Clinton-scale landslides.

.....

55-44? The Republicans are still doing better in the Blue Firewall in 2012 than in 2008, but they see many of the strengths that they had since 2000 disappearing:

   

Texas is in jeopardy, and it is not part of the question to the $200 clue "The Lone Star State".  This is the verge of a very nasty landslide.
 

[Sewer]

playing it safe

[Zarn]

playing it safe

Hmm... How about removing ND, MT, AZ, NM, MO, IN, NC, MN, NJ, NH and maybe ME... now that would be playing it safe. lol

[sentinel]

playing it safe

Hmm... How about removing ND, MT, AZ, NM, MO, IN, NC, MN, NJ, NH and maybe ME... now that would be playing it safe. lol

I can play it safe too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How about removing VA due to vulnerabily of Jim Webb, he probably won't last, He will lose to any republican that has name recognition.

[pbrower2a]

Playing it safe:

Texas was about as far from going Democratic as Pennsylvania was from going Republican. (fixed)

[All Along The Watchtower]

Playing it safe:

Texas was about as far from going Democratic as Pennsylvania was from going Democratic.

Uh...PA is far more likely to go Democratic than Texas, unless I'm missing something....

[Oakvale]

Playing it safe:

Texas was about as far from going Democratic as Pennsylvania was from going Democratic.

Uh...PA is far more likely to go Democratic than Texas, unless I'm missing something....

I think it was a typo and he meant Pennsylvania going Republican.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Playing it safe:

Texas was about as far from going Democratic as Pennsylvania was from going Democratic.

Uh...PA is far more likely to go Democratic than Texas, unless I'm missing something....

I think it was a typo and he meant Pennsylvania going Republican.

Yeah, I think so.

[Conservative frontier]

Here's my map for a Obama v. Generic GOPher

70% States : 10% + for Obama / Generic GOP
40% States : 5%-9.99% for Obama / Generic GOP
30% States : 0.01%-4.99% for Obama / Generic GOP


Of course, it's still very early to be claiming a winner. But......I think Obama will lose barely in 2012.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

prediction map of 2012

[pbrower2a]

Here's my map for a Obama v. Generic GOPher

70% States : 10% + for Obama / Generic GOP
40% States : 5%-9.99% for Obama / Generic GOP
30% States : 0.01%-4.99% for Obama / Generic GOP

Nebraska has a high likelihood (at least 30%) of splitting its electoral votes, and about a third of that is the chance that it will give 2 to Obama; it is in yellow.

Recent polls suggest that states are tending toward the mean, reversing the polarization that began to appear in the 1990s and reached its extreme in 2008.   


Of course, it's still very early to be claiming a winner. But......I think Obama will win in 2012 because the "dream" opponent will not materialize by then .

[tmthforu94]

Since when has a "30% chance" been a high likelihood?
The chances of Nebraska splitting it's electoral votes are about the same as Minnesota voting for the GOP candidate, if not worse.