New Jersey 2008

[DemocratsVictory2008]

Why did Obama do so poorly in Monmouth, Ocean Counties along the shore?
  I know he won Somerset- 1st dem since 1964 but all the trends point blue here. High education, good primary etc

[phk]

9/11 Effect was particularly strong in South Jersey in 2004 and I suppose that still has residual impact that carried onward to 2008.

[Gren]

Wikipedia attributes Ocean's republican lean to the large senior citizen community. But it guess that race (Ocean County is more than 90% white and Monmouth around 89%) and affluency (Monmouth is the 42nd US county by income) had something to do with it. However, I wouldn't say that taking 47.5% of the vote, as Obama did, is a poor result.

[Rowan]

Probably because Ocean and Monmouth are practically the two most Republican friendly counties in NJ. Look at Christies margins there.

[minionofmidas]

Well he did badly compared to 92-00. Though I suppose historically it's the 90's that were the exception.
Meh. Soccer moms. They probably voted for Dems because they liked Gun Control.

[Derek]

New Jersey is a cross between likely democrat and democrat battleground. Republicans could win it if they got over 54% or better with the popular vote.

[Smash255]

New Jersey is a cross between likely democrat and democrat battleground. Republicans could win it if they got over 54% or better with the popular vote.

If you need to get 54% of the PV to win (which is basically a margin of 9-10%) then its not a battleground in any shape or form.....

[phk]

New Jersey is a cross between likely democrat and democrat battleground. Republicans could win it if they got over 54% or better with the popular vote.

If you need to get 54% of the PV to win (which is basically a margin of 9-10%) then its not a battleground in any shape or form.....

Bush could have won in 2004 if he had maintained the RNC lead. I think.

He shot himself in the foot with doing so bad in the first debate however, going from +10R to +2R.

[Verily]

Why did Obama do so poorly in Monmouth, Ocean Counties along the shore?
  I know he won Somerset- 1st dem since 1964 but all the trends point blue here. High education, good primary etc

Gun control, gun control, gun control. 'Twas beloved of the Shore (and still is), but otherwise the demographics point Republican. So there was a fairly significant upwelling of support for the Democrats there in the late '90s that has faded as gun control has faded as an issue.

[Хahar 🤔]

lol