This was just too interesting not to share with you folks on this board and I think it reflects why Bush is nervous. There are a lot of swing states that Bush may be winning but is under 50% and there are many states that Bush should be dominating in and he is only in the 50s (the dakotas, montana, etc Bush should be absolutely crushing in those places and he is not.
Anyway I ripped this off DailyKos from the FleetAdmiral . What do you think?
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I've finally settled on a methodology that I like in my projections, so here they are. I'll try to post new projections whenever I can.
Methodology:
1) Includes polls from the past week
2) Must include at least 3 polls (if available). If three polls haven't been taken in past week, use polls from before then until 3 polls are found
3) Republican or Democratic polls are not used
4) Survey USA polls are not used
5) Polls whose margin between Bush and Kerry is more than 5pts more than any other poll are thrown out
6) 1% is added to "other" candidates on top of Nader % (if Nader is on the ballot. If not, "other" is automatically set to 1%)
7) The first set of % allocates undecideds 60% - 40% towards Kerry
The second set of % allocates undecideds 67% - 33% (2:1 margin) towards Kerry
Solid Electoral-Votes:
Kerry - 160
Bush - 142
Battleground - 236
Diaries :: FleetAdmiralJ's diary ::
Arizona
Bush: 51.2% | 50.8%
Kerry: 47.8% | 48.2%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (87% - 13% ; 6.7 to 1)
Arkansas
Bush: 50.3% | 50.1%
Kerry: 48.0% | 48.2%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (81% - 19% ; 4.3 to 1)
Colorado
Bush: 51.0% | 50.8%
Kerry: 46.9% | 47.1%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (Not possible with available undecideds)
Florida
Bush: 48.5% | 48.2%
Kerry: 49.2% | 49.5%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (50% - 50% ; 1 to 1)
Iowa
Bush: 49.2% | 48.97%
Kerry: 48.8% | 49.03%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (67% - 33% ; 2 to 1)
Maine
Bush: 45.1% | 44.6%
Kerry: 50.2% | *50.8%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (30% - 70% ; 1 to 2.3 Bush)
Michigan
Bush: 47.1% | 46.9%
Kerry: 51.8% | 52.0%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (Impossible for Bush to overtake Kerry with available undecideds)
Minnesota
Bush: 47.3% | 46.8%
Kerry: 51.1% | *51.6%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (33% - 67% ; 1 to 2 Bush)
Missouri
Bush: 50.7% | 50.5%
Kerry: 48.3% | 48.5%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (Not possible with available undecideds)
Nevada
Bush: 50.9% | 50.7%
Kerry: 47.3% | 47.5%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (Not possible with available undecideds)
New Hampshire
Bush: 47.5% | 47.2%
Kerry: 50.5% | 50.8%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (27% - 73% ; 1 to 2.7 Bush)
New Jersey
Bush: 46.2% | 45.9%
Kerry: 51.6% | 51.2%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (25% - 75% ; 1 to 3 Bush)
New Mexico
Bush: 46.2% | 46.1%
Kerry: 51.4% | 51.5%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (Impossible for Bush to overtake Kerry with available undecideds)
North Carolina
Bush: 52.7% | 52.6%
Kerry: 46.3% | 46.4%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (Not possible with available undecideds)
Ohio
Bush: 49.3% | 49.0%
Kerry: 49.7% | 50.0%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: 54% - 46% ; 1.2 to 1)
Pennsylvania
Bush: 47.3% | 46.9%
Kerry: 51.7% | 51.2%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (10% - 90% ; 1 to 9 Bush)
Tennessee
Bush: 51.5% | 51.2%
Kerry: 47.4% | 47.8%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (Not possible with available undecideds)
Virginia
Bush: 51.2% | 50.9%
Kerry: 47.6% | 47.8%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (Not possible with available undecideds)
Washington
Bush: 44.5% | 44.4%
Kerry: 54.2% | 54.3%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (Impossible for Bush to overtake Kerry with available undecideds)
West Virginia
Bush: 51.0% | 50.7%
Kerry: 47.2% | 47.5%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: (Not possible with available undecideds)
Wisconsin
Bush: 48.72% | 48.5%
Kerry: 48.70% | 48.9%
Undecided split needed for Kerry to win: 62% - 38% ; 1.6 to 1)
Electoral-Vote Count with 60% - 40% Undecideds (1.5 : 1)
Bush: 244
Kerry: 294
Electoral-Vote Count with 67% - 33% Undecideds (2 : 1)
Bush: 227
Kerry: 311
