The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

BTW, here´s the English results page:

http://www.wien.gv.at/english/NET-EN/GR101/index.htm

[Tender Branson]

I wonder what the result would have been if the FPÖ refused to run Barbara Rosenkranz as a Presidential candidate earlier this year ...

Probably 30%+

[Tender Branson]

2nd district of Vienna (Leopoldstadt):

112 of 111 precincts counted.

WTF ?

[Hash]

what is Simmering like?

[Tender Branson]

what is Simmering like?

Working class area with lots of industry (cars and weapons industry), demographically younger than the Vienna average, one of the fastest growing districts in the city (about 1% each year). Less foreigners than the Vienna average. Typical middle-class district.

[Tender Branson]

We have a final result now (excl. about 160.000 postal votes):

44.13%     (-4.96%)  SPÖ
27.06%  (+12.23%)  FPÖ
13.23%     (-5.54%)  ÖVP
12.23%     (-2.40%)  Greens
  1.40%    (+0.25%)  BZÖ
  1.15%     (-0.32%)  KPÖ
  0.68%    (+0.68%)  LIF
  0.06%    (+0.06%)  MUT
  0.05%    (+0.05%)  DEM
  0.01%     (-0.01%)  SLP

Turnout: 56.55% (is expected to increase to about 67-68% with postal votes, +6/7%)

Seats:

48     (-7)  SPÖ
29  (+16)  FPÖ
13     (-5)  ÖVP
10     (-4)  Greens

[Tender Branson]

Side fact:

The FPÖ did a lot worse than in 1996 in the liberal and population-declining inner-city districts (especially in the 1st, the 3rd and in the 6th-9th).

[minionofmidas]

We have a final result now (excl. about 160.000 postal votes):

44.13%     (-4.96%)  SPÖ
27.06%  (+12.23%)  FPÖ
13.23%     (-5.54%)  ÖVP
12.23%     (-2.40%)  Greens
  1.40%    (+0.25%)  BZÖ
  1.15%     (-0.32%)  KPÖ
  0.68%    (+0.68%)  LIF
  0.06%    (+0.06%)  MUT
  0.05%    (+0.05%)  DEM
  0.01%     (-0.01%)  SLP

Turnout: 56.55% (is expected to increase to about 67-68% with postal votes, +6/7%)

Seats:

48     (-7)  SPÖ
29  (+16)  FPÖ
13     (-5)  ÖVP
10     (-4)  Greens

What's the system used here; that's not a strictly proportional distribution.

[Tender Branson]

What's the system used here; that's not a strictly proportional distribution.

Wie aus Stimmen Mandate werden

17. September 2010, 19:09

49 Prozent der Stimmen bedeuten für die Wiener SP derzeit 55 von 100 Gemeinderatsmandaten. Aber auch mit 46 oder 47 Prozent könnten die Roten ihre absolute Mehrheit bei den Wahlen am 10. Oktober halten.

Nachdem das Ergebnis feststeht, wird in zwei Ermittlungsverfahren die Mandatsverteilung festgelegt. Im ersten Ermittlungsverfahren wird überprüft, wie viele Grundmandate die Parteien in den 18 Wahlkreisen geholt haben. Wer ein Grundmandat oder landesweit mehr als fünf Prozent der Stimmen hat, wird auch im zweiten Ermittlungsverfahren berücksichtigt. Dabei werden nach dem so genannten d'Hondtschen Verfahren, das auch bei Nationalratswahlen angewendet wird, die Restmandate vergeben; es kommen jene Kandidaten zum Zug, die auf den Landeslisten stehen.

Je mehr Wiener Parteien wählen, die nicht in den Gemeinderat einziehen, desto mehrheitsfreundlicher wird das Wahlrecht. Denn für die Mandatsermittlung werden nur jene gültigen Stimmen herangezogen, die auf Parteien entfallen sind, die entweder ein Grundmandat erreicht oder die Fünf-Prozent-Hürde übersprungen haben. Entfallen viele Stimmen auf Parteien, die das nicht geschafft haben, wird ein Mandat "billiger", das heißt: Die Zahl der erforderlichen Stimmen pro Gemeinderatssitz sinkt. Das gilt auch, wenn die Wahlbeteiligung insgesamt gering ist.

Eine Prozentgrenze für die absolute Mehrheit lässt sich im Vorfeld der Wahl nicht ziehen, das hängt von den Ergebnissen in den Bezirken ab. Die SP profitiert etwa von ihrer Stärke in den Flächenbezirken wie Floridsdorf oder Simmering, wo sie besonders viele Grundmandate einheimsen kann. Bei den Wahlen 2001 reichten den Roten jedenfalls schon 46,9 Prozent für die absolute Mandatsmehrheit.

Wie Wien künftig regiert wird, könnte am Abend des 10. Oktober noch unklar sein: Erstmals gibt es bei Gemeinderatswahlen die Möglichkeit zur Briefwahl. Schätzungen zufolge könnte jeder zehnte Wiener davon Gebrauch machen; die Briefwahlstimmen werden erst am 18. Oktober endgültig ausgezählt. (hei, DER STANDARD, Printausgabe, 18./19.9.2010)

http://derstandard.at/1284594595212/WISSEN-Wie-aus-Stimmen-Mandate-werden

[minionofmidas]

That doesn't explain anything and is in fact flat-out contradicted by the result, unless almost all seats are Grundmandate. (A D'Hondt distribution would be 46-28-14-12... and it's quite close between the 14th ÖVP, 13th Green, and 47th SPÖ mandate. The 13th ÖVP seat has a considerably lower priority than an 11th Green seat, so we'd have to assume that the Greens are the only party to get seats in the second distribution.)

[minionofmidas]

Thanks!

[Tender Branson]

That doesn't explain anything and is in fact flat-out contradicted by the result, unless almost all seats are Grundmandate. (A D'Hondt distribution would be 46-28-14-12... and it's quite close between the 14th ÖVP, 13th Green, and 47th SPÖ mandate. The 13th ÖVP seat has a considerably lower priority than an 11th Green seat, so we'd have to assume that the Greens are the only party to get seats in the second distribution.)

I´m not an expert with this, but try that:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4wC1YtzYiA

It seems like Hagenbach-Bischoff is used first to determine the basic mandates, then D'Hondt to determine the mandates that were left over ...

[minionofmidas]

Here is the constituency map



Seems the two multi-borough constituencies are named "Zentrum" and "Innen-West", btw.

This results page has the seats numbers.

[Tender Branson]

A couple of maps:

[minionofmidas]

the number of seats distributed in the first round was SPÖ 42, FPÖ 23, ÖVP 7, Greens 2, with 26 seats left over for the second distribution.

[Tender Branson]

the number of seats distributed in the first round was SPÖ 42, FPÖ 23, ÖVP 7, Greens 2, with 26 seats left over for the second distribution.

I guess the Greens got their 2 basic mandates in the Central ED and Inner-West ED ?

[minionofmidas]

Yes; missing out by ridiculous margins in Leopoldstadt, Landstraße, perhaps elsewhere (I sort of stopped bothering comparing seats with vote percentages eventually.)

Of course the cutest results come from Hernals and Währing, where only one out of three available seats was distributed in the first go.

[Tender Branson]

Now a seat has moved from the FPÖ to the SPÖ ...

What is going on there, why are they still counting ballots ?

I remember 2 hours ago, the FPÖ was over 170.000 votes, now they have less ?

Weird.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol

I would normally do a leading party map, but the essential hilarity of voting patterns in Vienna combined with the SPÖ leading everywhere to make such a map probably less than entirely useful.

[minionofmidas]

Now a seat has moved from the FPÖ to the SPÖ ...

What is going on there, why are they still counting ballots ?

I remember 2 hours ago, the FPÖ was over 170.000 votes, now they have less ?

Weird.

Correction of an error in the precinct results, presumably.

[Tender Branson]

Now a seat has moved from the FPÖ to the SPÖ ...

What is going on there, why are they still counting ballots ?

I remember 2 hours ago, the FPÖ was over 170.000 votes, now they have less ?

Weird.

Correction of an error in the precinct results, presumably.

Yeah, they were re-canvassing the results in the districts and now they have a preliminary final result.

The majority of the postal votes will be counted tomorrow, the rest next Monday.

[Tender Branson]

Here are the results of the Bezirksvertretungswahlen (district elections):

 2005 ->

As you can see, the 4th district went from the ÖVP to the SPÖ and the 8th district went from the Greens to the ÖVP, because of internal divisions within the Greens.

In the 8th, there were 2 Green lists: The main list got 24% and the split list got 12%, while the ÖVP got 26% and the SPÖ 24%.

Meanwhile, in the 6th district, there were also 2 Green lists this time, but the split group got only 2% there, while the main list got 26% - still, the SPÖ got 37% there.

Therefore, there will be 17 district "mayors" (Bezirksvorsteher) of the SPÖ, 5 from the ÖVP and 1 from the Greens.

http://www.wien.gv.at/wahl/NET/BV101/BV101-109.htm

[Tender Branson]

Here´s an English recap article of the elections:

Election gains for Austria far-right



The far-right resurged in local elections in Vienna, the Austrian capital, securing the biggest gains in votes and mandates following a campaign laced with anti-Islamic rhetoric.

With only absentee ballots left to be counted, the anti-immigration Freedom Party won 27% and 28 seats in the regional parliament – up from 13.

That is a significant boost from the 14.8% they garnered during 2005 elections, and near their record high of 27.9%, achieved in 1996, when the late Jorg Haider was at the party’s helm.

“With a hand on my heart, I am deeply grateful for the confidence the Viennese have given me and I know what that responsibility means,” Freedom Party chief Heinz-Christian Strache said.

The Social Democrats took the lead with 44.2% of the vote – down from 49.1% in 2005. But with just 49 seats to call their own, down from 55, they lost their absolute majority and will now have to look for a coalition partner.

That comes as a significant blow to longtime mayor Michael Haeupl, who hoped his party would not have to share power.

“The voter is always right in a democracy and as a democrat I accept this result and now we have to keep working,” said a clearly crushed Mr Haeupl, who gave no indication he would resign over the outcome.

He said the Freedom Party had done a better job mobilising its supporters.

The centre-right People’s Party, meanwhile, also suffered big losses, dropping from 18.8% in 2005 to 13.2% or 13 seats.

It had previously held 18. The Greens placed fourth with 12.2%, or 10 seats, down from 14.6 five years ago. It lost four mandates.

Over the past few months, the Freedom Party tried to shore up support with campaign posters that mentioned Vienna blood – originally a waltz by Johann Strauss – which critics claimed had clear racist undertones in this political context.

The party also circulated a controversial comic strip that features a character resembling Mr Strache who urges a young boy to use his sling shot to hit Mustafa, who led the historic Turkish siege of Vienna in 1683.

In the end, the Freedom Party connected best with predominantly male and less educated voters aged 20 to 29 or above 60, according to the Vienna-based Institute for Social Research and Analysis.

The Social Democrats, for their part, tried to position 61-year-old Mr Haeupl, who has been mayor since 1994, as a strong captain who had proven capable of steering the city through difficult times.

http://www.examiner.ie/breakingnews/world/election-gains-for-austria-far-right-477162.html

[Tender Branson]

The first batch of absentee ballots (about 95.000) was counted yesterday. The results now:

44.55% SPÖ
26.18% FPÖ
13.84% ÖVP
12.19% Greens
  1.33% BZÖ
  1.11% KPÖ
  0.67% LIF
  0.12% Others

Turnout: 64.32% (+3.51%)

Seats:

49 SPÖ
27 FPÖ
13 ÖVP
11 Greens

The final 50.000 absentee ballots will be counted next Monday.

[Tender Branson]

Seems like more and more Austrians want a "blue adventure" again:

A new OGM/Format poll shows that 44% of Austrians want the FPÖ in some kind of state or federal government, with 48% opposed.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20101014_OTS0158/format-ogm-umfrage-schon-44-prozent-koennen-sich-strache-fpoe-in-regierung-vorstellen