JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[Torie]

As I say, when it is viewed that a party seems poised to take power, the special interests run to get on the train before it leaves the station. It is about buying access; ideology is secondary for those who need to "manage" Washington to protect their bottom line.

[Dan the Roman]

As I say, when it is viewed that a party seems poised to take power, the special interests run to get on the train before it leaves the station. It is about buying access; ideology is secondary for those who need to "manage" Washington to protect their bottom line.

But the GOP already in that respect is bought, and can be bought once they are in office. Keeping the Democrats bought and not heading off in a populist direction is far more important at this point. And Obama will still be in office for the next two years and potentially longer. So you will get some of that, but its not as if the current slate of GOP candidates is the party of big business especially in the tech or financial sectors.

Also I think there has been a difference here between "special interests" ie. those lobbying because they want something direct, ie. resource extraction firms, defense contractors, and corporate America as a whole. The first group will dump a lot of money for the GOP. The latter are geographical in their support anyway, and need to stay on good terms with the Administration. Neither of the two are the ones with lots of cash hanging around, as most of them have been losing money. The people with a ton of excess cash, the financial and tech sectors, have not been particularly pro-Republican except for the brief period when they had total power in 2004 and looked like they would keep it. Its why I thought the decision would have a greater impact on the internal dynamics of the Democratic party than on partisan politics. The old standbys in the Chamber just don't control a majority of the cash anymore, and ironically Citizens United weakens the Chamber vis-e-ve its individual members.

The big impact is likely to be on issues like Prop 8 where I would not be surprised to see say Microsoft dump millions into an effort to beat a Washington equivalent. Eminent domain as well. The recent California Proposition on Car Insurance is probably another example of the type of issue where it will be felt.

[Vepres]

But the GOP already in that respect is bought, and can be bought once they are in office. Keeping the Democrats bought and not heading off in a populist direction is far more important at this point.

Heh, the Democrats are bought and paid for too. I once heard a quote, don't remember who said it, that 90% of Republicans were bought, compared to only 60% of Democrats

But seriously (not that the above wasn't serious ), I imagine most of the "special interests" (I use that term very broadly) focused very little on the Republicans the past four years or so, given that they were largely irrelevant. Thus, when the tide turned in favor of Republicans, they have to ensure that they're in their pockets if they should take back either or both houses of congress.

Wow, that was one cynical post!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I will say that, as tired a statement as it is, PA-12 showed us that candidates do matter. If the Republicans had nominated strong (or, hell, competent) candidates in ID-01 and AL-02, we wouldn't even be talking about those districts, because they'd be as good as gone for the Dems. All the money in the world poured in from outside can only provide so much polish for some of the Republican turds running.

[Torie]

I will say that, as tired a statement as it is, PA-12 showed us that candidates do matter. If the Republicans had nominated strong (or, hell, competent) candidates in ID-01 and AL-02, we wouldn't even be talking about those districts, because they'd be as good as gone for the Dems. All the money in the world poured in from outside can only provide so much polish for some of the Republican turds running.

Can you explain just why then  Sharron "the candidate from the innermost ring of Dantian hell" Angle is running even with Reid then?

[Sam Spade]

Fair enough.

I have this gut feeling now that we have reached an inflection point, and there is maybe now a 60% chance that there will be a wave, and the GOP will take back the House, and then some. The economic news is just terrible, the Dems are demoralized, with the Left mad at Obama, Obama has really mishandled the immigration issue (this business of not wanting to make the border more secure in order to have leverage to legalize millions of folks, cannot possible sit well with a majority of the voters), and the Dems borrowing another 26  billion to keep public employees employed (ya they say it is paid for, but they ain't cutting food stamps, so that will go by the wayside, just like the slash in doctor reimbursements), insurance premiums are ratcheting up, and emergency rooms are more clogged than ever, since so many docs will not take medicaid patients anymore, because they lose money on them. Can the news get any more terrible?

It looks to me like we may well be heading into a perfect storm, and the boat is not going to make it back to port.

I wrote this a few weeks ago.

As an overview, my thoughts are that the GOP chances of taking the House are presently somewhere between a 1 in 3 chance (33%) to a 2 in 5 (40%) chance.  An argument can be made for a 50-50 chance, but I'm not making it yet.

I didn't note this earlier, but the GOP chance of taking the Senate is probably at 1 in 10 right now.

Quite frankly, I think the evidence is now there to put GOP chances of taking the House at 50-50.  Can't agree on the 60% yet.  Still probably at 10% in the Senate, though.

[Torie]

Sam, as I say I am extrapolating based on a gut feeling, and a sense that I have that folks are beginning to panic a bit, and/or get really mad, above and beyond the usual suspects of the GOP base. I of course could be totally full of sh**t. But, well, just relying on polls and money all the time gets boring - at least for me. So when a divining  rod magically comes into my hands, I "enjoy" playing with it a bit. It is also hard in this environment for pollsters to predict turnout models - very hard. And finally I am impressed with the high GOP primary turnouts of late, and the low Dem ones. So I am giving myself "permission" to rely on my instincts here a bit. Don't you like to give yourself permission to do stuff, Sam?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I will say that, as tired a statement as it is, PA-12 showed us that candidates do matter. If the Republicans had nominated strong (or, hell, competent) candidates in ID-01 and AL-02, we wouldn't even be talking about those districts, because they'd be as good as gone for the Dems. All the money in the world poured in from outside can only provide so much polish for some of the Republican turds running.

Can you explain just why then  Sharron "the candidate from the innermost ring of Dantian hell" Angle is running even with Reid then?

Considering the polling has gone from favoring her by mid-single digits to favoring Reid by mid-single digits, I don't really see what's to explain.

Edit: I would say the odds of a Republican takeover of the House are 50/50 at this point. Which, as I keep saying, would be better for the Democrats than holding on to the House by a slim margin, leaving their agenda to be ripped to shreds (even more than before) by the Blue Dogs.

[Torie]

I will say that, as tired a statement as it is, PA-12 showed us that candidates do matter. If the Republicans had nominated strong (or, hell, competent) candidates in ID-01 and AL-02, we wouldn't even be talking about those districts, because they'd be as good as gone for the Dems. All the money in the world poured in from outside can only provide so much polish for some of the Republican turds running.

Can you explain just why then  Sharron "the candidate from the innermost ring of Dantian hell" Angle is running even with Reid then?

Considering the polling has gone from favoring her by mid-single digits to favoring Reid by mid-single digits, I don't really see what's to explain.

Edit: I would say the odds of a Republican takeover of the House are 50/50 at this point. Which, as I keep saying, would be better for the Democrats than holding on to the House by a slim margin, leaving their agenda to be ripped to shreds (even more than before) by the Blue Dogs.

Yes, I agree that if the goal is to defeat Obama, a GOP gain in the House of about 33 seats would be ideal for the reasons you say. But as for the Senate ... the sky is the limit as to this consideration.  

Let's see what the next poll says about Sharron. I suspect she might even it up. The Dems have had a really terrible couple of weeks - just awful.

[Mr.Phips]

Fair enough.

I have this gut feeling now that we have reached an inflection point, and there is maybe now a 60% chance that there will be a wave, and the GOP will take back the House, and then some. The economic news is just terrible, the Dems are demoralized, with the Left mad at Obama, Obama has really mishandled the immigration issue (this business of not wanting to make the border more secure in order to have leverage to legalize millions of folks, cannot possible sit well with a majority of the voters), and the Dems borrowing another 26  billion to keep public employees employed (ya they say it is paid for, but they ain't cutting food stamps, so that will go by the wayside, just like the slash in doctor reimbursements), insurance premiums are ratcheting up, and emergency rooms are more clogged than ever, since so many docs will not take medicaid patients anymore, because they lose money on them. Can the news get any more terrible?

It looks to me like we may well be heading into a perfect storm, and the boat is not going to make it back to port.

Most of the bad economic news is stuff that doesnt matter to ordinary Americans such as trade deficits and manufacturing numbers.  The unemployment rate has fallen from 10.1% late last year to 9.5% and probably wont rise much if at all before the election.  Most of the real bad economic news will come after the election(stuff like the fact that another recession started in August, unemployment back over 10% ect). 

[Sam Spade]

Sam, as I say I am extrapolating based on a gut feeling, and a sense that I have that folks are beginning to panic a bit, and/or get really mad, above and beyond the usual suspects of the GOP base. I of course could be totally full of sh**t. But, well, just relying on polls and money all the time gets boring - at least for me. So when a divining  rod magically comes into my hands, I "enjoy" playing with it a bit. It is also hard in this environment for pollsters to predict turnout models - very hard. And finally I am impressed with the high GOP primary turnouts of late, and the low Dem ones. So I am giving myself "permission" to rely on my instincts here a bit. Don't you like to give yourself permission to do stuff, Sam?

Of course.  Fwiw, I don't think your conclusion is out of the mainstream of possibilities at all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I will say that, as tired a statement as it is, PA-12 showed us that candidates do matter. If the Republicans had nominated strong (or, hell, competent) candidates in ID-01 and AL-02, we wouldn't even be talking about those districts, because they'd be as good as gone for the Dems. All the money in the world poured in from outside can only provide so much polish for some of the Republican turds running.

Can you explain just why then  Sharron "the candidate from the innermost ring of Dantian hell" Angle is running even with Reid then?

Because her opponent is Reid. Any other Democrat in the state would be destroying her soundly.

Of course rather amusingly, facing her is the only reason Reid has a chance.

[Torie]

I will say that, as tired a statement as it is, PA-12 showed us that candidates do matter. If the Republicans had nominated strong (or, hell, competent) candidates in ID-01 and AL-02, we wouldn't even be talking about those districts, because they'd be as good as gone for the Dems. All the money in the world poured in from outside can only provide so much polish for some of the Republican turds running.

Can you explain just why then  Sharron "the candidate from the innermost ring of Dantian hell" Angle is running even with Reid then?

Because her opponent is Reid. Any other Democrat in the state would be destroying her soundly.

Of course rather amusingly, facing her is the only reason Reid has a chance.

Yes, you have a point there. Reid is singularly awful. When he speaks, it is like listening to chalk scratch on a chalk board; the guy seems always so f'ing resentful and angry - about everything. And he has zero sense of humor to boot - zero.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some mickey mouse polling outfit or other has Skelton up by only 3pts or so, fwiw.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Post-primary (and other) changes:

Democratic seats:

AR-01* (Marion Berry) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Crappy Republican candidate, but I think Blanche is going to drag Democrats down with her. Also not helping things is Wooldridge's surrogates endorsing the Republican. Oh, and that Talk Business poll didn't help.
AR-04 (Mike Ross) - added to Democratic Watch List - See above, except the Republican nominee is even worse, and Ross is an incumbent.
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Just a gut feeling on this one.
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Another gut feeling.
FL-02 (Allen Boyd) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Extremely poor primary performance.
FL-08 (Alan Grayson) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Tons of money, but I don't see how being a big-mouthed liberal in a swing district is going to be helpful in a year like this.
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Freshman + Republican-leaning district.
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Freshman + strong challenger + no coattails + bad poll + firing campaign manager in the last 2 1/2 months = uh oh.
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth) - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup - Ellsworth is doing terribly in the Senate race, and open seats seem to be falling left and right to the Republicans.
MI-01* (Bart Stupak) - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup - Republicans got the better candidate, geographically speaking. There's a conservative independent who's threatening to spend $2 million of his own money, which could change things significantly.
MO-03 (Russ Carnahan) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Not totally convinced by the WAA poll, but Martin is keeping pace with Carnahan on the money front.
OH-16 (John Boccieri) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Freshman + Republican district + strong challenger.
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Weak incumbent + strong challenger.
WA-02 (Rick Larsen) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Pretty strong primary performance by Koster.
WA-03* (Brian Baird) - re-added to the list at Republican-Leaning Tossup - Don't know where this went, but the primary performance was bad for the Dems.
WV-03 (Nick Rahall) - dropped from the list - Spike Maynard is failing at fundraising, and now Rahall gets some Manchin coattails to ride.

Republican seats:

AZ-03* (John Shadegg) - moved to Likely Republican from Republican Watch List - Ben Quayle won the primary.
FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart) - moved to Pure Tossup from Likely Republican - Bizarre behavior from the Republican nominee unearthed.
WA-08 (Dave Reichert) - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican - Strong performance by Reichert and weak performance by DelBene in the open primary.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A second big batch of changes to reflect the fact that Democrats are pretty much screwed:


AL-02 (Bobby Bright) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic-Leaning Tossup - Finding it hard to see a Dem winning a district this red, even if he is basically a Republican.
AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Freshman, Republican-leaning district, immigration.
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Rematch with the guy he only beat by 9 points in 2008.
CO-03 (John Salazar) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Republican district, though the challenger is no great shakes.
CO-04 (Betsy Markey) - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup - Republican district, freshman incumbent.
GA-08 (Jim Marshall) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Republican district, good candidate.
IN-02 (Joe Donnelly) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Ellsworth is a complete failure of a statewide candidate.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic-Leaning Tossup - See above.
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Swing district + straight-ticket voting.
KY-06 (Ben Chandler) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Say it with me: Republican district, decent challenger.
MO-04 (Ike Skelton) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Uber-Republican district.
NY-13 (Michael McMahon) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Republican-leaning district, though you can always count on the Staten Island GOP to screw things up.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Swing district, strong challenger, freshman incumbent.
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Kind of following Sam with this one, but again, it's a freshman in a swing district.
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) - moved to Democratic-leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Democrats are getting their asses kicked in PA.
PA-04 (Jason Altmire) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - see above.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - moved to Democratic-leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - see above.
PA-10 (Chris Carney) - re-added to list at Likely Democratic - Blah blah, terrible candidate but the same as above.
SC-05 (John Spratt) - moved to Democratic-leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Republican district, decent challenger, and Spratt is on his way out in 2012 anyway.
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis) - moved to Democratic-leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Another uber-Republican district, though the challenger sucks.
WA-03* (Brian Baird) - moved to Lean Republican from Republican-Leaning Tossup - This one looks to be gone.
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Terrible candidates, but it's a Republican district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

With the primaries more or less over comes a bevy of changes.

Changes since last time:

Merged the Dem watch list with Likely Dem. Might as well, as the watch list has been dwindling.

Democratic seats:

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell) - D-Leaning Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
AR-04 (Mike Ross) - Dropped from the List
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
CA-20 (Jim Costa) - Added to Likely D
CO-03 (John Salazar) - Likely D -> Lean D
CO-04 (Betsy Markey) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R Takeover
FL-02 (Allen Boyd) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
FL-08 (Alan Grayson) - D-Leaning Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - D-Leaning Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop) - Likely D -> Lean D
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
IL-14 (Bill Foster) - Lean D -> Tossup
IL-17 (Phil Hare) - Likely D -> Lean D
IA-01 (Bruce Braley) - Added to Likely D
IA-02 (Dave Loebsack) - Added to Likely D
MA-10* (Bill Delahunt) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
MI-07 (Mark Schauer) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
MO-04 (Ike Skelton) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NV-03 (Dina Titus) - Tossup -> D-Leaning Tossup
OH-18 (Zack Space) - Likely D -> Lean D
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
PA-10 (Chris Carney) - Likely D -> Tossup
PA-12 (Mark Critz) - Likely D -> Lean D
PA-17 (Tim Holden) - Added to Likely D
RI-01* (Patrick Kennedy) - Dropped from the List
SC-05 (John Spratt) - D-Leaning Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly) - Likely D -> Lean D
WA-02 (Rick Larsen) - Likely D -> Lean D
WV-03 (Nick Rahall) - Added to Likely D
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) - Likely D -> Lean D

Republican seats:

AZ-03* (John Shadegg) - Dropped from the List
CA-03 (Dan Lungren) - Lean R -> Likely R
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack) - Dropped from the List
FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart) - Tossup -> Lean R
NE-02 (Lee Terry) - Dropped from the List
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi) - Dropped from the List
PA-06 (Jim Gerlach) - Lean R -> Likely R
PA-15 (Charlie Dent) - Lean R -> Likely R

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How did the primary shift MA-10? The far more conservative candidate won the Republican nomination if I am reading stuff right.

[Dan the Roman]

How did the primary shift MA-10? The far more conservative candidate won the Republican nomination if I am reading stuff right.

A large margin of victory for Perry on an unprecedented GOP turnout. Add in that the Democrats got the worst possible geographical showdown(a Boston area Dem v. a Cape Republican) albeit with a marginally better candidate, and Perry is in much better shape than he looked a month ago. Also, Perry's money issues should disappear and Baker will do well there. I might tip it slightly to him. Of course I would put his odds of being there in 2013 on a level with Cao's.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

How did the primary shift MA-10? The far more conservative candidate won the Republican nomination if I am reading stuff right.

A large margin of victory for Perry on an unprecedented GOP turnout. Add in that the Democrats got the worst possible geographical showdown(a Boston area Dem v. a Cape Republican) albeit with a marginally better candidate, and Perry is in much better shape than he looked a month ago. Also, Perry's money issues should disappear and Baker will do well there. I might tip it slightly to him. Of course I would put his odds of being there in 2013 on a level with Cao's.

This, basically, plus there are a couple of Democrats running as independents, although that may help Keating if they soak up independent voters that don't want to vote for a Democrat. Keating is still a much better candidate than Perry, though, so I wouldn't write him off at all.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Some changes:

Democratic seats:

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez) - Likely D -> Lean D
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
MI-07 (Mark Schauer) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
MI-09 (Gary Peters) - Likely D -> Lean D
MS-01 (Travis Childers) R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
NJ-03 (John Adler) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - Lean R takeover -> Tossup
OH-18 (Zack Space) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
PA-07* (Joe Sestak) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - Tossup -> Lean R
TX-17 (Chet Edwards) - Tossup -> Lean R

[Meeker]

You really think Childers isn't even competitive anymore? Has there been any polling out of there?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You really think Childers isn't even competitive anymore? Has there been any polling out of there?

Just internal polls. It's more a feeling than anything else.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another batch of changes...

Democratic seats:

CT-04 (Jim Himes) - Likely D -> Lean D
FL-08 (Alan Grayson) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
GA-08 (Jim Marshall) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
ID-01 (Walt Minnick) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Lean D
IL-17 (Phil Hare) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
KY-06 (Ben Chandler) - Lean D -> Likely D
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
NJ-03 (John Adler) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - Lean R -> Tossup
NY-13 (Michael McMahon) - Lean D -> Likely D
NY-19 (John Hall) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - Lean D -> Likely D
NY-23 (Bill Owens) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
NC-07 (Mike McIntyre) - Likely D -> Lean D
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus) - Lean R -> Likely R
OH-16 (John Boccieri) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
VA-05 (Tom Perriello) - Lean R -> Likely R
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) - Lean D -> Tossup

Republican seats:

CA-03 (Dan Lungren) - Likely R -> Lean R
WA-08 (Dave Reichert) - Likely R -> Lean R

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Rather strikingly, I just figured out that of the 82 incumbent Democrats on my list as being potentially vulnerable, 54 of them were elected between 2006 and 2009. In fact, the only seats the Democrats picked up over the past four years that I don't have on my list are CT-02 and NY-25 (VT-AL doesn't really count, since Sanders caucused with the Dems).

These ten survived the Republican Revolution:

Elected in 1992: GA-02 (Sanford Bishop), ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy), PA-17 (Tim Holden)
Elected in 1990: TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
Elected in 1989: MS-04 (Gene Taylor)
Elected in 1984: PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
Elected in 1982: SC-05 (John Spratt), VA-09 (Rick Boucher)
Elected in 1976: MO-04 (Ike Skelton), WV-03 (Nick Rahall)

Pomeroy and Spratt were the only ones even held to single-digits that year; 52-45 for Pomery, 52-48 for Spratt.