JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm waiting for the year-end reports to do a bigger update, but I have changed these so far:

Democratic seats:

AR-02 (Vic Snyder) moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Snyder retiring and his numbers sucked.
NC-08 (Larry Kissell) moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Good polling numbers for Kissell.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) added to Democratic watch list - Republicans would be fools not to dig up a strong challenger, given Hoeven's likely landslide in the Senate race.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) added to Democratic watch list - former Rep. Fitzpatrick is running against him.
PA-17 (Tim Holden) added to Democratic watch list - strong Republican recruit from Holden's home turf.

Republican seats:

PA-06 (Jim Gerlach) moved to Lean Republican from Pure Tossup - Gerlach back in the saddle.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm waiting for the year-end reports to do a bigger update, but I have changed these so far:

Democratic seats:

AR-02 (Vic Snyder) moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Snyder retiring and his numbers sucked.
NC-08 (Larry Kissell) moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Good polling numbers for Kissell.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) added to Democratic watch list - Republicans would be fools not to dig up a strong challenger, given Hoeven's likely landslide in the Senate race.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) added to Democratic watch list - former Rep. Fitzpatrick is running against him.
PA-17 (Tim Holden) added to Democratic watch list - strong Republican recruit from Holden's home turf.

Republican seats:

PA-06 (Jim Gerlach) moved to Lean Republican from Pure Tossup - Gerlach back in the saddle.

I agree with your listing on this one. This Kevin Cramer doesn't appeal to many people from what I read. The GOP needs Wayne Stenejhem(Sp?) to jump in or his brother Anthony. They could clear the field and are both rising stars.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A few more updates before the 4th quarter fundraising numbers are posted next week.

Democratic seats:

AR-01 (Marion Berry) - added to Lean Republican Takeover - Berry retiring; until a good Democratic candidate steps in this is pretty much considered a loss.
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - added to Democratic watch list - She actually has a legitimate challenger now.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bad poll, you know the drill.
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Teague is in the same boat as Chabot, I doubt his poll numbers are any better (especially since the district is more Republican). I'm going on a hunch for this one, but I've expected him to be a one-termer pretty much since he was elected. The terrible climate for Dems and former Rep. Pearce going back to his seat are pretty much sealing this one.
NY-01 (Tim Bishop) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bishop up by 2 in a SUSA poll.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Still no opponent, but he's a freshman in a swing district, so he's not safe until we see who his opposition ends up being.
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Rematch with Hanna.
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Terrible poll numbers for Driehaus. This is likely to be a common refrain this year.

Republican seats:

IL-13 (Judy Biggert) - dropped from the list - Harper's fundraising is terrible, this race is not going to be close.

[Mr.Phips]

A few more updates before the 4th quarter fundraising numbers are posted next week.

Democratic seats:

AR-01 (Marion Berry) - added to Lean Republican Takeover - Berry retiring; until a good Democratic candidate steps in this is pretty much considered a loss.
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - added to Democratic watch list - She actually has a legitimate challenger now.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bad poll, you know the drill.
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Teague is in the same boat as Chabot, I doubt his poll numbers are any better (especially since the district is more Republican). I'm going on a hunch for this one, but I've expected him to be a one-termer pretty much since he was elected. The terrible climate for Dems and former Rep. Pearce going back to his seat are pretty much sealing this one.
NY-01 (Tim Bishop) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bishop up by 2 in a SUSA poll.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Still no opponent, but he's a freshman in a swing district, so he's not safe until we see who his opposition ends up being.
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Rematch with Hanna.
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Terrible poll numbers for Driehaus. This is likely to be a common refrain this year.

Republican seats:

IL-13 (Judy Biggert) - dropped from the list - Harper's fundraising is terrible, this race is not going to be close.

NY-01 a tossup?  That poll included no voters under the age of 30 and Bishop still led by two points.  Even a Republican poll put him up 20 points a few weeks back. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A few more updates before the 4th quarter fundraising numbers are posted next week.

Democratic seats:

AR-01 (Marion Berry) - added to Lean Republican Takeover - Berry retiring; until a good Democratic candidate steps in this is pretty much considered a loss.
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - added to Democratic watch list - She actually has a legitimate challenger now.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bad poll, you know the drill.
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Teague is in the same boat as Chabot, I doubt his poll numbers are any better (especially since the district is more Republican). I'm going on a hunch for this one, but I've expected him to be a one-termer pretty much since he was elected. The terrible climate for Dems and former Rep. Pearce going back to his seat are pretty much sealing this one.
NY-01 (Tim Bishop) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bishop up by 2 in a SUSA poll.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Still no opponent, but he's a freshman in a swing district, so he's not safe until we see who his opposition ends up being.
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Rematch with Hanna.
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Terrible poll numbers for Driehaus. This is likely to be a common refrain this year.

Republican seats:

IL-13 (Judy Biggert) - dropped from the list - Harper's fundraising is terrible, this race is not going to be close.

NY-01 a tossup?  That poll included no voters under the age of 30 and Bishop still led by two points.  Even a Republican poll put him up 20 points a few weeks back. 

Regardless of the internals, SUSA's polls are generally good.

[xavier110]

NY-01 a tossup?  That poll included no voters under the age of 30 and Bishop still led by two points.  Even a Republican poll put him up 20 points a few weeks back. 

I live in the district; SurveyUSA's poll is right.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Post-fourth quarter fundraising update:

Democratic seats:

FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic - Republicans' fundraising is not very impressive.
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop) - dropped from the list - Mike Keown's fundraising has sputtered to a halt. He's not going to be a challenge to Bishop.
IL-14 (Bill Foster) - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic - Hultgren won the Republican nomination, and he doesn't look like that strong a candidate.
NY-29 (Eric Massa) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Massa's challenger is pretty unimpressive as far as fundraising goes.
OH-18 (Zack Space) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Space has lame opponents.
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Ribble's fundraising is more like a dribble. Ha ha ha.

Republican seats:

CA-44 (Ken Calvert) - dropped from the list - 2008 appears to have been an aberration and Hedrick is (unsurprisingly) not setting the world on fire with his fundraising.
FL-10 (Bill Young) - moved to Republican Watch List from Likely Republican - Young appears to be running again, and Justice's fundraising is pretty anemic.
FL-12* (Adam Putnam) - dropped from the list - Lori Edwards' fundraising is lacking. Not going to cut it in a Republican-leaning district in this environment.
FL-16 (Tom Rooney) - dropped from the list - Craft has really not turned out to be that great a recruit. He's only raised $100k over two quarters. Rooney will be safe for his sophomore term.
MN-03 (Erik Paulsen) - dropped from the list - Bonoff is not running again, and Paulsen's announced opponents are pretty lame.
MO-08 (Jo Ann Emerson) - dropped from the list - Not gonna happen.

[Badger]

What's the asterisk by Putnam's seat mean? Or just a typo?

[Ronnie]

Ron Klein's seat should be tossup, in my opinion.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Asterisk denotes open seat, as it says in the OP.

[Badger]

Asterisk denotes open seat, as it says in the OP.

Gotitthanx.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

End of the month, let's have some updates:

Democratic seats:

AR-01* (Marion Berry) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic Takeover - Until the Republicans get a better candidate, the Dems could probably hold this one.
FL-22 (Ron Klein) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Polarized district in a bad climate means Klein has a 50/50 shot of winning at this point.
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth) - added to list at Pure Tossup - Ellsworth running for Senate.
KS-03* (Dennis Moore) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Complete recruiting failure on the part of the Democrats.
MA-10 (Bill Delahunt) - added to Democratic Watch List - Possible retirement/scandal.
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican Takeover - Surprisingly, Teague is doing not too terribly in the polls.
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Heinrich up a decent margin, but not overwhelming.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) - moved to Lean Democoratic from Democratic Watch List - Bad poll from Rasmussen, not so bad poll from R2k. I'm splitting the difference.
NY-19 (John Hall) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Hayworth has outraised Hall, and recent Dem performance in Westchester does not bode well for the Dems.
OH-13 (Betty Sutton) - added to Democratic Watch List - I'm skeptical of the car magnate's chances in this district, but he does have a lot of money.
PA-12* (Jack Murtha) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic Watch List - Murtha's passing makes this a tossup.
TN-06* (Bart Gordon) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Complete recruiting failure on the part of the Democrats.
VA-09 (Rick Boucher) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Boucher finally has an opponent.

Republican seats:

AZ-03* (John Shadegg) - added to Republican Watch List - Not much chance of a Dem takeover, but their candidate is raising some serious money, and there's the possibility of a fractious Repubican primary.
DE-AL* (Mike Castle) - moved to Likely Democratic Takeover from Lean Democratic Takeover - No serious Republican seems to be interested in running, so Carney is just gaining more and more headway.
FL-10 (Bill Young) - dropped from the list - Young running again, and Justice is a flop of a candidate.
MI-11 (Thad McCotter) - dropped from the list - Not looking like the Democrats will field a serious candidate here.

[xavier110]

Gotta comment on NY-01 developments:

Had you asked me about Bishop's chances during the health care town halls in the summer, I would have said he was a goner.

Now things are looking up for him.

First of all, a contentious Republican primary is brewing. There are five or six Republicans fighting for the nomination, among them Nixon's grandson, wealthy businessmen, etc.

Term-limited and popular Independent Suffolk County legislator Jay Schneiderman is considering running on the Independence line. This is definitely to Bishop's advantage, and the more cynical political observer would say has been planned by Bishop and Schneiderman (part of the insiders group of Bishop/Schneiderman/LaValle/Thiele) to ensure his reelection.

Now all he needs is the Conservative Party to deviate from the Republican Party's choice. Or to not endorse anyone at all.

Lean Dem for now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Gotta comment on NY-01 developments:

Had you asked me about Bishop's chances during the health care town halls in the summer, I would have said he was a goner.

Now things are looking up for him.

First of all, a contentious Republican primary is brewing. There are five or six Republicans fighting for the nomination, among them Nixon's grandson, wealthy businessmen, etc.

Term-limited and popular Independent Suffolk County legislator Jay Schneiderman is considering running on the Independence line. This is definitely to Bishop's advantage, and the more cynical political observer would say has been planned by Bishop and Schneiderman (part of the insiders group of Bishop/Schneiderman/LaValle/Thiele) to ensure his reelection.

Now all he needs is the Conservative Party to deviate from the Republican Party's choice. Or to not endorse anyone at all.

Lean Dem for now.

Wouldn't that hurt Bishop, since he's gotten the Independence Party ballot line in every election except for his first run?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A few changes before the post-1Q fundraising reports come out:

Democratic seats:

AL-02 (Bobby Bright) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican Takeover - Yes, yes, internal poll, but the Republicans didn't have one in response, and besides, Bright is practically a Republican anyway.
AR-01* (Marion Berry) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Recruiting failure for the Republicans.
KY-06 (Ben Chandler) - added to Democratic Watch List - Been debating this one, as Chandler has a ton of cash and is personally popular, but Kentucky is not looking so good for the Dems this year and Barr is raising a decent amount of money.
MA-10 (Bill Delahunt) - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Open seat.
NY-29 (Eric Massa)* - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Lean Democratic - Open seat, no Dem bench.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Fitzpatrick running; I'm still not impressed, but he should still have a good fundraising base.
WV-01 (Alan Mollohan) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Not impressed with the cast of challengers, but Mollohan is low on cash.

Republican seats:

FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart)* - added to Republican Watch List - Open seat that was competitive in 2008. Won't stay if the Dems fail to recruit someone good, though.
NE-02 (Lee Terry) - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican - Heineman will crush the opposition at the top of the ticket, so Terry will have an easier time of it.

[TeePee4Prez]

PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Fitzpatrick running; I'm still not impressed, but he should still have a good fundraising base.

Of all the Philadelphia suburban counties, Obama did the worst in Bucks County and Mike Fitzpatrick is pretty popular there.  However, I think Pat Murphy will eventually hold his own here.  If Pat Murphy were to retire or run for Senate then yeah this would definitely be a GOP takeover in 2010.  I don't know why the hubbub over PA-7- it's FAR more Democratic and liberal than PA-8- Lentz should have it comfortably, but we will see friction there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The first quarter reports are mostly in, so I have a bunch of race changes:

Democratic seats:

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Surprisingly strong fundraising from Paton.
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
CO-03 (John Salazar) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Frazier is a more serious candidates than most of the $100k/quarter watch list contenders.
CT-04 (Jim Himes) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
CT-05 (Chris Murphy) - added to Democratic Watch List - Republicans have a candidate with deep pockets.
FL-02 (Allen Boyd) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Rich dude running.
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop) - added to Democratic Watch List - I dropped this before, but this may actually end up being the most competitive House race in Georgia, as neither Barrow nor Marshall have drawn serious challengers.
HI-01* (Neil Abercrombie) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic Watch List - Democrats seem to be trying to make this their NY-23.
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Top of the ticket is going to be a drag, and Kinzinger is a pretty decent candidate.
IN-02 (Joe Donnelly) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
KS-03* (Dennis Moore) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Likely Republican Takeover - Hey, the Democrats have a candidate now! But they're probably still going to lose this seat!
LA-03* (Charlie Melancon) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Big-time Republican recruit.
MI-01* (Bart Stupak) - added to list at Pure Tossup - Open seat.
MI-07 (Mark Schauer) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Environment, negative coattails, whatever.
MS-04 (Gene Taylor) - added to Democratic Watch List - Taylor let himself get outraised in 1Q; will this be the year he cruises to defeat?
NV-03 (Dina Titus) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Heck's polling has him ahead; I'm willing to believe it's a tossup.
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Her fundraising suuuuuucks.
NJ-12 (Rush Holt) - added to Democratic Watch List - Yet another moneybags Republican.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Polls (well, Rasmussen poll) still suck for Pomeroy.
OR-01 (David Wu) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Fundraising, GOP, blah blah blah.
RI-01* (Patrick Kennedy) - added to Democratic Watch List - Open seat, although I think that probably makes it safer than if Kennedy were running again.
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Uninspiring poll numbers for SHS.
UT-02 (Jim Matheson) - dropped from the list - Matheson's likely opponent, Morgan Philpot, raised all of $15k in 1Q. You can't win with no money.
WA-02 (Rick Larsen) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
WV-01 (Alan Mollohan) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Fundraising, GOP, blah blah blah.

Republican seats:

AL-03 (Mike Rogers) - dropped from the list - Josh Segall dropped out.
DE-AL* (Mike Castle) - moved to Lean Democratic Takeover from Likely Democratic Takeover - Republicans finally have a (serious) candidate, assuming she makes it out of the primary.
FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart) - moved to Likely Republican from Republican Watch List - Democrats finally recruited a strong candidate somewhere!

[Sam Spade]

Most of my changes will probably mirror yours, fyi...

[Mr.Phips]

Dont know why people are now suddenly saying NJ-12 will be competitive.  The one county(Hunterdon) that gave Republicans a base in the district was removed in redistricting. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Some pretty good numbers with regards to fundraising across the country.

[Vepres]

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

Frazier has raised more money and seems like a better candidate all-around. Other than that I don't see much difference.

Dont know why people are now suddenly saying NJ-12 will be competitive.  The one county(Hunterdon) that gave Republicans a base in the district was removed in redistricting.  

I'm not trying to go all Mr. Moderate and say "OMGZ CHRISTIE = REPUBLICANS WIN NEW JERSEY!!!", but they have raised a bumper crop of rich people to run in Democratic districts this year (against Holt, Pallone, and Rothman). Holt has the least money of the three, and stranger things have happened, especially since there's no statewide race to drive turnout.

[Vepres]

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

Frazier has raised more money and seems like a better candidate all-around. Other than that I don't see much difference.

Remember that Salazar voted for healthcare, despite being a blue doge, and that McCain was able to squeak out a victory there.  That's basically why I view it as more competitive, but of course, I'm not looking in-depth at the candidates and their fundraising and such.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

Frazier has raised more money and seems like a better candidate all-around. Other than that I don't see much difference.

Remember that Salazar voted for healthcare, despite being a blue doge, and that McCain was able to squeak out a victory there.  That's basically why I view it as more competitive, but of course, I'm not looking in-depth at the candidates and their fundraising and such.

Going by Green Papers (I think it is total raised so far)
Tipton has about $250,000 Salazar has about $980,000
Gardner has about $850,000 Markey has about $1.6 Million
Frazier has about $650,000 Perlmutter has about $1.2 Million

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

Frazier has raised more money and seems like a better candidate all-around. Other than that I don't see much difference.

Remember that Salazar voted for healthcare, despite being a blue doge, and that McCain was able to squeak out a victory there.  That's basically why I view it as more competitive, but of course, I'm not looking in-depth at the candidates and their fundraising and such.

Going by Green Papers (I think it is total raised so far)
Tipton has about $250,000 Salazar has about $980,000
Gardner has about $850,000 Markey has about $1.6 Million
Frazier has about $650,000 Perlmutter has about $1.2 Million

Yeah, that's the total raised. Cash on hand is a little different. Salazar has $1.1m, Tipton has $191k. Markey has $1.25m, Gardner $540k. And Perlmutter also has $1.25m, while Frazier has $379k.