Northern Ireland joins Ireland. 2007 election

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What if, Northern Ireland suddenly joined Ireland sometime in late 2006, and the 2007 Irish election had included Northern Ireland in it?

First, the real election results:

FF - 77 - 858,565
FG - 51 - 564,428
LP - 20 - 209,175
GP - 6 - 96,936
SF - 4 - 143,410
PD - 2 - 56,396
IND - 5 -
TOT - 166 - 2,085,245

I'm going to presume that these dont change, for simplicity sake. What I'm curious about (and I want feedback) is what would happen in the North.

According to my quick calculations, NI would get 66 seats, making the assembly have a new total of 232

Election results (vote only) in Northern Ireland.

DUP - 207,721 - 30.1%
SF - 180,573 - 26.2%
SDLP - 105,164 - 15.2%
UUP - 103,145 - 14.9%
ALL - 36,139 - 5.2%
GP - 11,985 - 1.7%
TOT - 690,191



Now the answer is not as simple as adding these together. I foresee changes and I will outline why.

I believe that many Catholics are not voting for Nationalist parties. Some are possibly voting for Unionist Parties - IE voting UUP to defeat a DUP candidate. Some are staying at home. Others do not trust the process. I call all three groups, Catholics that have "come to terms" with their situation, that they are in the UK, like it or not. Due to this I think the nationalist parties would get a vote share increase.

The same I believe would be true in reverse. Should a sudden merger happen I think as many as 25% to 33% of current Unionist voters would "come to terms" with the new reality that they now live in Ireland and will not hence vote for Unionist parties.

I believe that many voters for Sinn Fein were "Angry Nationalists" who voted for SF and not SDLP because it was stronger. These voters will no longer have a reason to vote SF, and I project that they would turn to mainstream Irish parties like FF and FG.

I foresee the Alliance deciding to stick in it's lot with FF. While FF was only recently officially Liberal, FG was not. The Alliance would also likely see the benefits in being the anchor for Ireland's "Natural Governing Party" in the North.

The Greens would merge no problems.

The SDLP works with the UK's Labour party, and I can see the SDLP doing the same with Ireland's Labour party. I can, in fact, see them merging into a single Labour Party.

Lastly, the shock of the switcharoo would likely be enough, the way I see it, to force the DUP and UUP (as well as other unionists) into a single united Unionist party.



FF -    91   -   36.2%   -   1,005,991
FG -    60   -   22.9%   -   635,579
LP -    31   -   11.3%   -   314,339
UN -   21   -   8.2%   -   228,064
SF -    14   -   9.7%   -   269,811
GP -    7   -   3.9%   -   108,921
PD -    2   -   2.0%   -   56,396
OT -   6   -   5.6%   -   156,335



This would have likely lead to a FF-LP government, as other traditional combinations would have been impossible with the bloc of Unionist TD's


Thoughts, comments??