General Election Prediction.

[afleitch]

Some other fun predictions I may run these (if the Boardbashi permits) every month or so.

Britain

Tory vote share -
Labour vote share -
Lib Dem vote share -

Most seats-

Scotland

Tory -
Labour -
Lib Dem -
SNP -

Most seats -

Wales

Tory
Labour
Lib Dem
Plaid

Most seats -

Northern Ireland

Largest Unionist party
By Votes-
By Seats-

Largest Nationalist party
By Votes-
By Seats-

Others

Number of UKIP seats-
Number of Green seats-
Turnout-
Party Lib Dems most likely to cosy up with in the event of a Hung Parliament-

[k-onmmunist]

Britain

Tory vote share - 39%
Labour vote share - 33%
Lib Dem vote share - 19%

Most seats- Labour

Number of UKIP seats- 0
Number of Green seats- 1
Turnout- 65%
Party Lib Dems most likely to cosy up with in the event of a Hung Parliament- Conservatives

[Phony Moderate]

Britain

Tory vote share - 0.1%
Labour vote share - 1%
Lib Dem vote share - 90%

Most seats - Lib Dems

Number of UKIP seats- 0
Number of Green seats- 0
Turnout- 65%
Party Lib Dems Tories most likely to cosy up with in the event of a Hung Parliament - Lib Dems

[You kip if you want to...]

Britain

Tory vote share - 40-42%
Labour vote share - 27-29%
Lib Dem vote share - 19-21%

Most seats - Cameron's Conservatives

Scotland

Most seats - Labour

Wales

Most seats - Labour


Others

Number of UKIP seats - 0
Number of Green seats - 1 (Brighton Pavillion)
Turnout - 60%
Party Lib Dems most likely to cosy up with in the event of a Hung Parliament - Cameron's Conservatives, if he'll have them. Otherwise, whoever will get them the most attention.

Labour will gain: Bethnal Green and Bow, Blaenew Gwent and Glasgow East.

[Verily]

I was bored, so I decided to briefly come back and make a prediction.

Britain

Tory vote share - 40%
Labour vote share - 25%
Lib Dem vote share - 23%

Most seats - Tories

Scotland

Tory - 15%
Labour - 34%
Lib Dem - 17%
SNP - 32%

Most seats - Labour

Wales

Tory - 29%
Labour - 34%
Lib Dem - 17%
Plaid - 14%

Most seats - Labour

Northern Ireland

Largest Unionist party
By Votes - DUP
By Seats - DUP

Largest Nationalist party
By Votes - Sinn Fein
By Seats - Sinn Fein

Others

Number of UKIP seats - 0
Number of Green seats - 1
Turnout - 68%
Party Lib Dems most likely to cosy up with in the event of a Hung Parliament - Tories; Labour largest party is far too unlikely

[afleitch]

I was bored, so I decided to briefly come back and make a prediction.

Never leave again!

[afleitch]

Britain

Tory vote share - 42%
Labour vote share - 29%
Lib Dem vote share - 19%

Most seats- Conservatives

Scotland

Tory - 19%
Labour - 32%
Lib Dem - 16%
SNP - 30%

Most seats - Labour

Wales

Tory - 34%
Labour - 36%
Lib Dem  13%
Plaid - 15%

Most seats - Labour

Northern Ireland

Largest Unionist party
By Votes- TUV
By Seats- No largest party

Largest Nationalist party
By Votes- Sinn Fein
By Seats- Sinn Fein

Others

Number of UKIP seats- 0
Number of Green seats- 0
Turnout- 70%
Party Lib Dems most likely to cosy up with in the event of a Hung Parliament- Tories

[Hash]

TUV? Why?

They won 14% in the Euros, but still in third place among unionists.

[afleitch]

TUV? Why?

They won 14% in the Euros, but still in third place among unionists.

Got to have a wild card

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some other fun predictions I may run these (if the Boardbashi permits) every month or so.

The Boardbashi reckons that we're close enough to justify such things. Was going to give this a go myself, but then I thought... well... I don't know enough about turnout patterns yet. Right now I would guess a workable majority for the Tories but not a large one, Labour to be the largest party in Scotland and Wales, the LibDems to prefer working with the Tories (leaders matter in such things and their current leader... yeah...) and the DUP to be largest in Northern Ireland. I'm less sure of the latter than any of the others... the thing is, intra-community swings in the province can be astonishing. As anyone who remembers 2001 will know already.