REVIEW OF PREDICTIONS PART 1(MOE +/-3%)
AlabamaSenatePrediction: Shelby (R) 66, Barnes (D) 34
Actual: Shelby (R) 65, Barnes (D) 35
Within MOEComment: Yep.
GovernorPrediction: Bentley (R) 61, Sparks (D) 39
Actual: Bentley (R) 58, Sparks (D) 42
Outside MOEComment: Bentley underperformed a little more than I thought he would. But it's not like this was exactly unsurprising.
House - Ranked RacesPredictions:
AL-02 (to GOP)
CorrectComment: Compared to what else happened in Alabama, Bright overperformed masterfully. But it still wasn't enough.
AlaskaSenatePrediction: Miller (R) 40, Murkowski (WI) 29, McAdams (D) 29, Other 2
Actual: Murkowski (WI) 40, Miller (R) 34, McAdams (D) 23, Other 2
Outside MOE, WRONG WINNERComment: Wow, what an awful prediction. McAdams still underran his polling, proving one true fact about Alaska, regardless of circumstances.
GovernorPrediction: Parnell (R) 60, Berkowitz (D) 35, Other 5
Actual: Parnell (R) 59, Berkowitz (D) 38, Other 3
Outside MOEComment: In a more easily predictable Alaska race, more predictable results.
ArizonaSenatePrediction: McCain (R) 57, Glassman (D) 38, Other 5
Actual: McCain (R) 59, Glassman (D) 35, Other 6
Outside MOEComment: Not particularly unhappy with this. McCain was never "that" strong, but
always safe.
GovernorPrediction: Brewer (R) 55, Goddard (D) 43, Other 2
Actual: Brewer (R) 54, Goddard (D) 42, Other 4
Within MOE, EXACT MARGINComment: If only Obama had shut his trap earlier this year... Goddard still wouldn't have won, of course, but the race would have been competitive at least b/c Brewer is not competent (irregardless of whether you agree with her political beliefs).
House - Ranked RacesPredictions:
AZ-01 (to GOP)
CorrectAZ-03* (stays GOP)
CorrectAZ-05 (to GOP)
CorrectAZ-07 (stays DEM)
CorrectAZ-08 (to GOP)
WrongComment: Giffords survived, barely. Quayle ran about a point behind Shadegg 2008, fyi. When the Dems went hardcore advertising in AZ-07, I suspected the Hispanic turnout would be enough to save Grijalva, and it was (a general message about this election - with the exception of a few important places, there were not that many major turnout gaps that I can detect in comparison with 2008 - just something to keep in mind). I should've noted this message in other races, though.
ArkansasSenatePrediction: Boozman (R) 58, Lincoln (D) 39, Other 3
Actual: Boozman (R) 58, Lincoln (D) 37, Other 5
Within MOEComment: I gave Lincoln far too much credit. She didn't even whiff 40%.
GovernorPrediction: Beebe (D) 58, Keet (D) 39, Other 3
Actual: Beebe (D) 64, Keet (D) 34, Other 2
Outside MOEComment: And I gave Beebe far too little credit. Especially in the face of what happened downballot. Though the prediction was a bit of an inside joke.
House - Ranked RacesPredictions:
AR-01* (to GOP)
CorrectAR-02* (to GOP)
CorrectAR-04 (stays Dem)
CorrectComment: Nothing too strange here. Ross did hold on, of course.
CaliforniaSenatePrediction: Boxer (D) 50, Fiorina (R) 46, Other 4
Actual: Boxer (D) 52, Fiorina (R) 42, Other 6
Outside MOEComment: If you peek under the hood for a moment, you start to realize that California was all about turnout (so was Washington, but that's a long way off). What's the answer, you ask? I'm not going to give it to you...
GovernorPrediction: Brown (D) 51, Whitman (R) 45, Other 4
Actual: Brown (D) 54, Whitman (R) 41, Other 5
Outside MOEComment: Yep, so Whitman ran behind generic Republican, err... Fiorina, as was obvious since, at latest, September and probably earlier. Can't say that I didn't warn you here, Torie...
House - Ranked RacesPredictions:
CA-03 (stays GOP)
Correct CA-11 (to GOP)
WrongCA-18 (stays DEM)
CorrectCA-20 (to GOP)
WrongCA-45 (stays GOP)
WrongCA-47 (stays DEM)
WrongComment: I should have applied what I saw in AZ-07 to CA-20, but the Central Valley is in such bad shape, I didn't. McNerney barely held on but that does say something about that seat.
ColoradoSenatePrediction: Buck (R) 51, Bennet (D) 47, Other 2
Actual: Bennet (D) 48, Buck (R) 46, Other 5
Outside MOE, WRONG WINNERComment: Colorado is not an easy state to poll, and, as thus, one of the key things I always remember is that SUSA has done consistently better in the state than anyone else
by far. So I waited and waited for their last poll, considering their previous one said 47-47 tie. We never got it. Taking into account early voting, etc., I said - Buck must have pulled in the undecideds and judged accordingly. Au contaire. Nothing changed. And the gender gap suggests almost crystal clearly to me that the rape issue won it for Bennet.
GovernorPrediction: Hickenlooper (D) 47, Tancredo (AIP) 45, Maes (R) 6, Other 2
Actual: Hickenlooper (D) 51, Tancredo (AIP) 36, Maes (R) 11, Other 2
Outside MOEComment: Remember the effect of early voting on late movement in polls. I didn't.
House - Ranked RacesPredictions:
CO-03 (to GOP)
Correct CO-04 (to GOP)
CorrectComment: Salazar was one where I was always about 3 steps ahead of the brilliant "pundits" this year. (sometime you have to pat yourself on the back). Markey was dead meat the moment she won.
ConnecticutSenatePrediction: Blumenthal (D) 54, McMahon (R) 44, Other 2
Actual: Blumenthal (D) 55, McMahon (R) 43, Other 2
Within MOEComment: McMahon probably underperformed a little, like all high-spending candidates do, but not that much and not enough to matter.
GovernorPrediction: Foley 49, Malloy 48, Other 3
Actual: Malloy 50, Foley 49, Other 1
Within MOE, WRONG WINNERComment: One of the most important observations about this election was - in states where Dems have a good party apparatus, their voters showed up, eliminating most, if not all, of the enthusiasm gap present in polling that emphasizes such. Of course, in some places, like the upper Midwest or Arkansas, this didn't really matter. Not surprising, really. That's why it's called a wave election. But along the coasts...
House - Ranked RacesPredictions:
CT-04 (to GOP)
Wrong CT-05 (to GOP)
WrongComment: Bad year with Connecticut. Al is right about CT-04 - I can't disagree now. At least I wasn't stupid enough to even think about listing CT-02.
DelawareSenatePrediction: Coons (D) 53, O'Donnell (R) 43, Other 4
Actual: Coons (D) 57, O'Donnell (R) 40, Other 4
Outside MOEComment: So O'Donnell was a disaster, but look at her effect down the ballot. Wowsers. The prediction sucked, but at least I never thought she'd win.
House - Ranked RacesPredictions:
DE-AL* (to Dem)
CorrectComment: Rather obvious, don't you think...
FloridaSenatePrediction: Rubio (R) 48, Crist (I) 28, Meek (D) 22, Other 2
Actual: Rubio (R) 49, Crist (I) 30, Meek (D) 20, Other 1
Within MOEComment: Rubio would have won regardless. Remember April and the posts on the forum...
GovernorPrediction: Scott (R) 48.4, Sink (D) 48.2, Other 3.4
Actual: Scott (R) 48.9, Sink (D) 47.7, Other 3.4
Within MOEComment: Went against M-D and won! Btw, I noticed in the primary that undecideds tended to break towards Scott, henceforth the call.
House - Ranked RacesPredictions:
FL-02 (to GOP)
CorrectFL-08 (to GOP)
CorrectFL-12* (stays GOP)
CorrectFL-22 (to GOP)
CorrectFL-24 (to GOP)
CorrectFL-25* (stays GOP)
CorrectComment: Most of these races were obvious, but I suspected West would benefit from partisanship this year. Note that FL-22 best mirrors the national swing from 2008 to 2010, with about a 2-3% Republican bias (which makes sense in Florida) Also, what were Dems doing down in FL-25? Biggest waste of money, period - that CD
always overpolls Dems by a lot. They would have been better off putting something on FL-12 (still wouldn't have worked).
GeorgiaSenatePrediction: Isakson (R) 59, Thurmond (D) 38, Other 3
Actual: Isakson (R) 58, Thurmond (D) 39, Other 3
Within MOEComment: Georgia prediction is easy once you get the turnout right.
GovernorPrediction: Deal (R) 52, Barnes (D) 43, Other 5
Actual: Deal (R) 53, Barnes (D) 43, Other 4
Within MOEComment: A retread candidate race where the polling made complete sense. Rare in this election. Did Barnes ever get over 43% in any polling, btw?
House - Ranked RacesPredictions:
GA-02 (to GOP)
WrongGA-08 (to GOP)
CorrectGA-12 (stays Dem)
CorrectComment: I don't need to see the results to say that Bishop must've gotten enough blacks to show up and kept at least a few personal votes from whites. Not surprised, just thought there wouldn't be enough.
HawaiiSenatePrediction: Inouye (D) 68, Cavasso (R) 27, Other 5
Actual: Inouye (D) 75, Cavasso (R) 22, Other 3
Outside MOEComment: And here I thought Inouye might underperform a little (he has before). Oh well. Anyone who bought the Rasmussen poll was on crack.
GovernorPrediction: Abercrombie (D) 51, Aiona (R) 47, Other 2
Actual: Abercrombie (D) 58, Aiona (R) 41, Other 1
Outside MOEComment: I thought the Hawaiian vs. white might make a difference. Guess I should remember to never trust Hawaii polling.
House - Ranked RacesPrediction:
HI-01 (stays GOP)
WrongComment: Close but no cigar. At least I didn't really bet, like Torie, but if I was going to call IL-08, calling IL-10 for GOP and HI-01 for Dems would make more sense internally. Which is something in my predictions I've tried to be more careful about this year (and will do so
even more in the future).
a start, more soon...