Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[minionofmidas]

Haven't updated it in a while, Lewis, so you're placement is a little stale.  Will probably get to it tomorrow.

Yah, there's a handful of seats where Silver's figures changed considerably with his last update and your placements fit his former numbers more closely than his current ones.

[Sam Spade]

Haven't updated it in a while, Lewis, so you're placement is a little stale.  Will probably get to it tomorrow.

Yah, there's a handful of seats where Silver's figures changed considerably with his last update and your placements fit his former numbers more closely than his current ones.

Gotcha.  Anyway, it's gonna have to be until tomorrow.

Btw, I'm thinking about changing House (and maybe Senate/Governor) for the last couple of weeks to...

Lost (10 or so)
Lean R (20 or so)
Tossup/Lean R (10 or so)
Pure Tossup (10 or so)
Tossup/Lean D (10 or so)
Lean D (30 or so)
Watch (20-30 or so)

and ditto vice versa for Dems, but a lot less obviously.

for still a 45-50 call.

I'm hoping things clear up a little in the next week because my call range is pretty wide right now (even though I average it out at 45-50).

[Vepres]

You might want to look at moving CO-07 to lean. The Denver Post has endorsed Frazier, and he seems to have all the momentum.

[minionofmidas]

Btw, I'm thinking about changing House (and maybe Senate/Governor) for the last couple of weeks to...

Lost (10 or so)
Lean R (20 or so)
Tossup/Lean R (10 or so)
Pure Tossup (10 or so)
Tossup/Lean D (10 or so)
Lean D (30 or so)
Watch (20-30 or so)

Since I just did a rough count of app. 28-30 seats where I would be surprised if the Dems held on and app.30-32 where I wouldn't be surprised either way... that sounds about right.

[Sam Spade]

I'm basically about done with the House revisions.  When you see a House seat with this ^ in Lean D or Watch List, consider that I think it is either on the outer edge of Lean D (probably Likely D when I have the category) or on the outer edge of the Watch List.  There's *still* a few more seats that could be watched, but if I see an inkling of anything there, I'll note it.

[minionofmidas]

You have 27 seats in lean and 33 in watch list, yet the total for either is given as 30.

Also, PA-03 is listed twice but it seems clear that it belongs in Gone, not lean R.

[Sam Spade]

You have 27 seats in lean and 33 in watch list, yet the total for either is given as 30.

Also, PA-03 is listed twice but it seems clear that it belongs in Gone, not lean R.

That's just me deciding whether I want to move it back down to 85/35 or 85/30.  I've been debating on this a bit.  PA-03 is a mistake. 

Right now - NRCC/DCCC is advertising in roughly 60 seats outside the ten I've listed as gone.  I have good reasons for including 15 more (outside spending high, polling close, not just internals, etc.), but 5 more than that may be pushing it.

[J. J.]

I'm still at 43. 

[Oakvale]

Surely the Delaware Senate seat has to be considered safe Dem. at this point?

[Sam Spade]

Delaware is only not Safe D b/c DSCC keeps spending money there (another expenditure today btw) which makes me hesitate.

[Sam Spade]

Made some changes in the House arena.  Decided to go with 85/35 split also.

[Torie]

Well I see Sam is slowly moving to the "correct" prediction of 50-60.  

I am off to the Big Apple today.

[Sam Spade]

Gonna put up some changes narrowing the field in both Senate and Governor this weekend, as well as changes in the House as we reach the two-week mark, a good time to really start narrowing the playing field (though in the House, that seems hard).

[Sam Spade]

Senate Notes

*Eliminated Likely Categories

- Decided to move DE to Safe.  DCCC still throwing in a marginal amount, Obama going there to campaign and nuts tend to underpoll a little.  However, no poll has had Coons under 50 for a long while.
- CA was moved to Tossup/Tilt D.  Most recent polls have been +1, +3, +4, +3 and +4.  Normally, I wait for an actual tied poll, but it just makes sense here.
- WA was moved to Tossup/Tilt D.  We see two tales of the race - my suspicion is that it's in the area of what SUSA says, but both parties are putting a lot of money here, just FYI.
- IL stays in Tossup, though my gut still says Kirk is up by a point or two.  For now.
- NV stays in Tossup, though my gut still says Angle will win here just because...  Not by a lot of course, but I don't expect it to be under 1%.
- WV stays in Tossup.  Both parties are spending a lot of money here and WV voters are strange.  The uni poll was, well, a uni poll..
- CO stays in Tossup/Tilt R.  Rasmussen's poll for both the Gov and Sen released today and yesterday has some funky internals, but they don't lean one way or the other.  Buck is probably ahead within MOE though.
- PA was moved to Tossup/Tilt R.  Just something I smell about the race.  Though Toomey may well still be ahead outside MOE.
- AK moved to Lean R.  Alaska is a strange state, one of the 3-5 US states that will actually elect a 3rd party without it being a de facto party candidate.  Of course, Murkowski is going to stay a Republican if elected (just watch) and I've never seen a Dem overpoll in Alaska, so this may not matter in the end.  I just see the prospect for some wildness here.  And watch - Miller will win it easily now.  
- FL moved to Safe R.  Rubio now in the low-mid 40%, Meek at 20% = Crist dead.
- MO moved to Safe R.  Both parties are moving their things out.  I don't expect Blunt to win by a lot, but he hasn't been under 50% in legitimate polls in months and in Missouri, this means safe.
- NH moved to Safe R.  I see no interest by either party in getting into this race.  This is the one race where I'm leery of putting into safe b/c the polling does not exactly suggest it according to my standards, but there seems to be a lot of acknowledgment that it's not competitive.

[Sam Spade]

Governor Notes

*Eliminated Likely Categories

- Moved NH from Likely D to Lean D.  I feel uncomfortable with putting this as Safe, given NH's weird ability to throw incumbent governors out for no reason, without telling us in the polling, which is close to not being in Safe territory anyways.
- Moved CO from Likely D to Lean D.  As I said before, the recent Ras poll is weird, but it looks like Tancredo is starting to become de facto GOP candidate.  It is probably too late, but if that happens, the race cannot be classified Safe and it's close enough for me to err on the cautious side.
- Moved CA from Tossup/Tilt D to Lean D.  The polling suggests it.  Compare with CA-Sen.
- MN is in Lean D.  Personally, I think this one might be safe, but the polling is not convincing on this front, so I err on the cautious side.
- Moved HI from Lean D to Tossup/Tilt D.  I don't trust any polling from Hawaii.  That being said, the latest polls say this is what it should be.
- MA is in Tossup/Lean D.  The polling says Lean D (not by much), but I suspect Cahill is overpolling.  Just a gut feeling.
- FL is in Pure Tossup.  The polling is all over the place here.  Your guess...
- OR is in Pure Tossup.  The last polls have Kitz up 1 and 2.  Too close for me to move in any direction, yet.
- RI is in Pure Tossup.  I say this - but I'd bet good money on the Dem winning.  RI polling sucks though.
- VT is in Pure Tossup.  The polls say this is the correct designation.
- IL is in Tossup/Tilt R.  My guess is that Rasmussen is more correct than the polls with the high 3rd party candidate numbers (as usual), given that this is IL, but there's enough doubt for me to not move it to Lean R.
- ME is in Tossup/Tilt R.  Race has tightened, but no poll shows Mitchell ahead.  This is the correct call to me.
- MI moved from Likely R to Lean R.  I just don't feel comfortable enough to put the race in Safe R - Bernero is probably underpolling a bit, but the next week or two should give us notice whether all those undecideds are just Dem voters or not.
- NM is in Lean R.  If this wasn't NM, a good case can be made IMO to putting it in Safe R.  But not here.  Voters seem to be sending a message against Richardson here by going against Denish, and normally that does not change even by Election Day in NM.  Can't say I'm surprised either.
- OH is in Lean R.  That being said, I'd be very surprised if Strickland wins.  Pay attention to the U of Cincy poll here - it has a top-notch track record.
- PA moved from Likely R to Lean R.  Same as MI, I just don't feel comfortable enough here yet.  These open PA governor contests have a way of tightening right at the end (though the party ahead wins).
- TX and WI stay in Lean R.  However, both races look to be breaking open to me.
- SC goes to Safe R.  I know what the crappy polls say - this is SC though.

[Sam Spade]

Well I see Sam is slowly moving to the "correct" prediction of 50-60.  

I am off to the Big Apple today.

I am in no way up to that level because Republican messaging has sucked so much this cycle (no one wants to listen to me, in other words).  The opportunity for over 60 certainly exists in this election but has probably been thrown away, which makes 50-60 less likely (though certainly more likely than Dems keeping the House at this point).  Of course, for Dems, the problem is that right now I have a tough time finding only 40 aggregate seat losses unless a strong majority of the real battlegrounds go their way because there are so many of them.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

- MN is in Lean D.  Personally, I think this one might be safe, but the polling is not convincing on this front, so I err on the cautious side.

You're actually a bit more optimistic than I am then.

I think I see the point though, the polling seems to imply that Emmer's ceiling is in the high 30s, and with that you just can't win even with a third party pulling about 10-15%.

[Sam Spade]

- MN is in Lean D.  Personally, I think this one might be safe, but the polling is not convincing on this front, so I err on the cautious side.

You're actually a bit more optimistic than I am then.

I think I see the point though, the polling seems to imply that Emmer's ceiling is in the high 30s, and with that you just can't win even with a third party pulling about 10-15%.

I also have a bit of stupid logic concerning Governor's races this year - I think people are simply voting against the party in power in these open races.  It certainly looks like it.

[Sam Spade]

House Notes

- Overall, I've moved to 50-55 seat gain.  Sounds about right.  88 Competitive/32 Watch List.
- I have moved 15 districts in total to Likely Gone.  I expect 1 of them to surprise (maybe) election night, but I feel over a 50% chance of getting them all right as of now, henceforth, I'm doing it.  There are probably at least 5 other seats that can go here (indicating the "20 gone" memo, I keep repeating), but am less sure about - CO-04, FL-02, NH-01 being the most likely suspects, but I'll err on the side of caution, for now.
- 35 tossups now instead of 30.  The numbers called for it.
- 23 Lean Ds for now.  I have a few choices for additions, and will increase to 25 probably at some point soon unless things change.  The numbers I see really say about 75 "really competitive" seats.

[Torie]

Sam says 50-55, and I have said 50-60 for close to two months, but I am not clued in, because the GOP message skill sucks. Whatever.   Sam, the facts on the ground, make all of this message stuff very second tier. That is why so many nutters will win. It is send a message time.

After my little visit to Philly, I am quite worried about a currency collapse down the road. I am going to have to sell on Monday some of my long term TIPS, which are in a taxable account, and book a large capital gain. I had not been planning to do that. I will now. For complex reasons, TIPS don't do well, when long rates go up, even though they are inflation protected.  They also have liquidity issues, when the bond market is under stress.

It is quite possible that 2012 will be even worse than 2010 for the Dems, not to say for the country. I hope of course that does not happen, but I am worried. The problem is that will all the debt out there, the cost of carry will eat the feds alive if and when interest rates bounce up, leading to a vicious cycle of collapsing confidence. And it can happen very quickly. By the way, Japan tried to stimulus approach, and massive public works and all, and it belly flopped. That is not the way out of the box. Pity that it is not very clear what is.

[Sam Spade]

Sam says 50-55, and I have said 50-60 for close to two months, but I am not clued in, because the GOP message skill sucks. Whatever.   Sam, the facts on the ground, make all of this message stuff very second tier. That is why so many nutters will win. It is send a message time.

I know.  What I'm saying is that more than 60 or even 70 is quite possible with the right message.  It may still be possible otherwise, but far less likely.  Whatever, a big shift is coming long term, if not this year.  The trick is figuring out where.

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A currency collapse is quite possible.  The tell is to watch for Japan, which will undoubtedly blow up before us, and will be the signal.  I still don't think we're there yet.  Right now, I see capital flight from the US into commodities, certain equities and into shorting the dollar, but a lot of parabolic patterns are being created which will likely collapse at some point - the crack-back from that will be enormous when it happens.  After that point, and only after that point, can any type of currency collapse happen.

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Of course, Japan has managed to keep its rates low all this time.  What's interesting about the past few months in the US though, is how the shorter duration bonds have made new highs,whereas the 10 and 30 year have not.  Those types of divergences are very disturbing for the long run.

The correct answer is to hike interest rates and cut spending drastically to force the holders of bad debt out of the system and incentivize saving.  Yes, it will be very painful, but currency collapses are catastrophic.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I find myself in concurrence here with your calls in MA -- it's almost unthinkable that the GOP could be favored in MA-10 and yet Patrick could be favored for re-election, but here we are.

[Torie]

Well the savings rate is relatively high at the moment - for those who have a job. I as usual do the opposite of most in this country. When the savings rate was low, mine was high, and now that it is high, mine is negative. I am kind of like investing in gold, both gold and Torie have a negative beta.

By the way, I don't think Japan "printed" massive amounts of money, which is what the Fed has done a bit, and will now do a lot more, by buying treasuries. It is quite the high wire act - without a net below. The problem is that to the extent it "works," the cost of debt carry will double, and double again, with rather small interest rate moves back to "normal," and that might lead to its own crises of confidence, unless the US is really willing to slash spending in a way neither party shows the slightest interest in doing. I mean, how many politicians have endorsed "death panels?" Do you know of any?

Hopefully at least the low hanging fruit of castrating public employee unions will be harvested, but I wonder if even that will happen absent a currency collapse.

[Mr.Phips]

Sam says 50-55, and I have said 50-60 for close to two months, but I am not clued in, because the GOP message skill sucks. Whatever.   Sam, the facts on the ground, make all of this message stuff very second tier. That is why so many nutters will win. It is send a message time.

After my little visit to Philly, I am quite worried about a currency collapse down the road. I am going to have to sell on Monday some of my long term TIPS, which are in a taxable account, and book a large capital gain. I had not been planning to do that. I will now. For complex reasons, TIPS don't do well, when long rates go up, even though they are inflation protected.  They also have liquidity issues, when the bond market is under stress.

It is quite possible that 2012 will be even worse than 2010 for the Dems, not to say for the country. I hope of course that does not happen, but I am worried. The problem is that will all the debt out there, the cost of carry will eat the feds alive if and when interest rates bounce up, leading to a vicious cycle of collapsing confidence. And it can happen very quickly. By the way, Japan tried to stimulus approach, and massive public works and all, and it belly flopped. That is not the way out of the box. Pity that it is not very clear what is.

If Republicans pick up 50-60 seats this year, its going to be almost impossible for Republicans to gain anything more in 2012 because they will have picked up pretty much every possible seat that they can this year and there wont be many more Democrats to defeat.  230-232 seats is basically the ceiling for Republicans in the House. 

Control of redistricting in Indiana, Pennslyvania, and Ohio will help them a little, but there just arent going to be any Democrats left to cut out in these states if Republicans are picking up 12 seats in these states this year.  Since Ohio is losing two seats and Pennslyvania is losing one, Republicans may have to cut some of their own members out in redistricting. 

[J. J.]

If Republicans pick up 50-60 seats this year, its going to be almost impossible for Republicans to gain anything more in 2012 because they will have picked up pretty much every possible seat that they can this year and there wont be many more Democrats to defeat.  230-232 seats is basically the ceiling for Republicans in the House. 

Control of redistricting in Indiana, Pennslyvania, and Ohio will help them a little, but there just arent going to be any Democrats left to cut out in these states if Republicans are picking up 12 seats in these states this year.  Since Ohio is losing two seats and Pennslyvania is losing one, Republicans may have to cut some of their own members out in redistricting. 

First, I expect low to mid 40's in the pickup category.

Second, there will probably be a 5-10 seat pickup after redistricting.

Third, long term (by 2017), I think you could be talking about a 280 seat ceiling for the GOP in the House.