Romney, Gingrich, Pawlenty

[California8429]

Say that's our top people in 2012. Who wins what, discuss with maps

Now without Thune in the picture

[segwaystyle2012]

Thune is not a contender. Who would vote for him?

[Progressive]

I say the order is

Romney
Gingrich
Thune
Pawlenty

Romney and Gingrich fight for first place

[Vepres]

Thune seems more like a possible VP than a Presidential candidate.

I'd say in odds they'll get the nomination it's:

Romney
Gingrich
A darkhorse candidate
Pawlenty

[Alexander Hamilton]

Romney
Pawlenty


That's it.

[Lunar]

Thune is not a contender. Who would vote for him?

He's the most evangelical of the four.  He'll also be the only one of the four with a job.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Thune can be in a time a Senate Republican Leader rather. Since he'll be probably reelected in 2010, he can be eventually V.P. nominee, but nothing more.

[California8429]

ok, let's take Thune out of the picture then. Who wins what states?

[Lahbas]

Likely this...................

Green - Romney
Blue - Gingrich
Red - Pawlenty

Even though Gringrich's approval ratings are still low, it can be assumed that he will have sought to try and raise them beforehand and while campaigning. Pawlenty will probably not gain traction and only split the vote with Romney, which is why Gingrich wins states like Wyoming and Idaho. However, since the economy is likely to be the problem, Romney will have the edge, and after Pawlenty's inevitable withdrawal, wwill cruise to victory.

[useful idiot]

The primaries aren't one big election day, so you can't say "who wins what" or make a map because momentum over an extended period of time plays a huge part. If one of these guys doesn't win Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina then they're through. If one of them wins both Iowa and New Hampshire then they're probably going to take the nod. There are so many factors.

Of these three however Romney will probably do the best, followed by Gingrich and then Pawlenty...

[Vepres]

Let's assume for argument's sake that the primary schedule is the same as this year's. After Super Tuesday I could see this map:

Same color scheme as Lahbas.  I know NJ seems weird, but my gut feeling was that Gingrich would somehow pull off a narrow win there.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Thune is not a contender. Who would vote for him?

He's the most evangelical of the four.  He'll also be the only one of the four with a job.

^^^^

[Psychic Octopus]

Romney
Pawlenty

[paul718]

Likely this...................

Green - Romney
Blue - Gingrich
Red - Pawlenty

Even though Gringrich's approval ratings are still low, it can be assumed that he will have sought to try and raise them beforehand and while campaigning. Pawlenty will probably not gain traction and only split the vote with Romney, which is why Gingrich wins states like Wyoming and Idaho. However, since the economy is likely to be the problem, Romney will have the edge, and after Pawlenty's inevitable withdrawal, wwill cruise to victory.

I think Pawlenty would fare better in the Deep South.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

What the last two posts said.

Gingrich really would not do as well in the South as some people think.