2010 State Elections in Germany

[Hans-im-Glück]

I think for the new year we should start a new topic.

Election Calendar:
 
9th of May State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia

When it gives no early election, then this is the only one in 2010. This one is a very important, because NRW is the most populous federal State of Germany.

[Franzl]

It's also rather important because of the composition of the Bundesrat.

[Hans-im-Glück]

The first poll in Germany since the elections in September with the CDU / CSU - FDP has no majority. It's no surprise for me. The last weeks were a complete chaos in the government.

Infratest-dimap  (11.12.2009)
 
CDU/CSU      35 %
SPD      24 %
FDP      12 %
DIE LINKE      11 %
GRÜNE      14 %
Others      4 %

[Middle-aged Europe]

Guttenberg is probably thinking "boy, I really should have picked Interior instead of Defence" right now. Bad career move.

[Hans-im-Glück]

The first Polls in Germany in this year.

Infratest dimap (07.01.2010)

CDU/CSU  36 %
SPD          25 %
Greens     12 %
FDP          11 %
Left          10 %
Others       6 %

Right   47%
Left     47%

Forsa (13.01.2010)

CDU/CSU  35 % 
SPD           22 % 
Greens      14 %
FDP           10 %
Left           11 %
Others        8 %

Right   45%
Left     47%

Emnid (13.01.2010)

CDU/CSU  34 %   
SPD           23 %
Greens      13 %
FDP           12 %
Left           12 %
Others        6 %

Right   46%
Left     48%

A Poll for Bavaria (last election 2008)

Infratest dimap (13.01.2010)


CSU              41 %   (43,4 % )
SPD              17 %   (18,6 %)
Greens         15 %    (9,4 %)
FDP              11 %    (8,0 % )
Left                5 %    (4,3 % )
Free Voters    6 %   (10,2 %)
Others            5 %   ( 6,1 %)

[Tender Branson]

A Poll for Bavaria (last election 2008)

Infratest dimap (13.01.2010)


CSU              41 %   (43,4 % )
SPD              17 %   (18,6 %)
Greens         15 %    (9,4 %)
FDP              11 %    (8,0 % )
Left                5 %    (4,3 % )
Free Voters    6 %   (10,2 %)
Others            5 %   ( 6,1 %)

Any reason why the SPD is not benefitting from the weakness of the CSU ?

Compared with the 2003 state elections, the CSU dropped 20%, the SPD 3% while the other parties gained (Greens from 8 to 15, FDP from 3 to 11, Left from 0 to 5 and FW from 4 to 6).

[Hans-im-Glück]

A Poll for Bavaria (last election 2008)

Infratest dimap (13.01.2010)


CSU              41 %   (43,4 % )
SPD              17 %   (18,6 %)
Greens         15 %    (9,4 %)
FDP              11 %    (8,0 % )
Left                5 %    (4,3 % )
Free Voters    6 %   (10,2 %)
Others            5 %   ( 6,1 %)

Any reason why the SPD is not benefitting from the weakness of the CSU ?

Compared with the 2003 state elections, the CSU dropped 20%, the SPD 3% while the other parties gained (Greens from 8 to 15, FDP from 3 to 11, Left from 0 to 5 and FW from 4 to 6).

The staff of the SPD in Bavaria is really not good. In many parts of the federal state, the party is not present (especially in the south). The greens may even benefit more from the weakness of the CSU. They seem more modern than the SPD and its chairman, Sepp Daxenberger is very popular. The voters of the left all come from the SPD. They are mostly trade unionists who are disappointed by the SPD.

The SPD has only one chance in Bavaria, where the staff is better and offers a real alternative to the CSU policy.

The mayor of Munich, Christian Ude, is the only popular politician of the SPD, but he'll never run for parliament. He is rather the king of Munich, than opposition leader in parliament.

[minionofmidas]

Daxenberger is great. (Yeah yeah, he's probably moderate as hell, but he's great. A craftsman from some village near Berchtesgaden originally. Besides, I'm dead drunk.)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Daxenberger is great. (Yeah yeah, he's probably moderate as hell, but he's great. A craftsman from some village near Berchtesgaden originally. Besides, I'm dead drunk.)

Daxenberger is from Waging am See in the district of Traunstein. That is north of Berchtesgaden. He worked as a farmer and a blacksmith. From 1996 he was 6 years Mayor of his village. He was the first mayor of the Greens in Bavaria. For me he is too moderate and too Bavarian, but he is really great. I have never found someone who doesn't like him.

[KuntaKinte]

Any reason why the SPD is not benefitting from the weakness of the CSU ?

Greens are "chick", SPD is not.

[Hans-im-Glück]

New Polls in Germany

Germany total:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (15.01.2010)

CDU/CSU    36 % 
SPD             25 %
Greens        12 %
FDP             11 %
Left             11 %
Others          5 %

Right     47%
Left       48%


For the federal state of Lower Saxony (Hanover)

Infratest dimap (15.01.2010) (compared with the last election January 2008)

CDU/CSU     41 %  (42,5 %)   
SPD             29 %  (30,3 %)
Greens        11 %   (8,0 %)
FDP               9 %    (8,2 %)
Left               6 %    (7,1 %)
Others          4 %    (3,9 %)

Right     50 %
Left       46 %

No big difference to the last election in Lower Saxony. This is no surprise. The Governor, Christian Wulff, is very popular there.

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new poll for Germany

GMS (Gesellschaft für Markt- und Sozialforschung) (19.01.2010)

CDU/CSU    35 % 
SPD             24 %
Greens        14 %
FDP             11 %
Left             11 %
Others          5 %

Right     46%
Left       49%


A new poll for North Rhine-Westphalia (next election is 9th May this year)

Forsa (19.01.2010) (compared with the last election May 2005)

CDU/CSU    42 %    (44,8 % )
SPD             31 %   (37,1 %)
Greens        11 %     (6,2 %)
FDP               6 %     (6,2 %)
Left               5 %     (3,1 %)
Others          5 %     (2,6 %)

Right     48%
Left       47%

A better result for the CDU/FDP in NRW than in Germany total. Very curious.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Different polling company, so not so strange.

[Tender Branson]

3 new federal polls:

Infratest-dimap (22.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     36 %
SPD             25 %
Greens        13 %
Left             11 %
FDP             10 %
Others          5 %

Right     46%
Left       49%

Emnid (20.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     35 %
SPD             24 %
Greens        13 %
Left             11 %
FDP             11 %
Others          6 %

Right     46%
Left       48%

Forsa (20.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     35 %
SPD             21 %
Greens        15 %
Left             11 %
FDP             11 %
Others          7 %

Right     46%
Left       47%

There`s also a new North Rhine-Westphalia state elections poll:

Infratest-dimap/WDR (22.01.2010)

CDU            36 %
SPD             32 %
Greens        12 %
FDP               9 %
Left               6 %
Others          5 %

Right     45%
Left       50%

CDU-FDP         45%
SPD-Greens    44%

[Franzl]

Isn't it amazing how polarized the German electorate is?

[KuntaKinte]

Isn't it amazing how polarized the German electorate is?

The German electorate is very polarized, but isn't it in most western democracies nowadays? The US, the UK, France, Italy?

[Franzl]

Isn't it amazing how polarized the German electorate is?

The German electorate is very polarized, but isn't it in most western democracies nowadays? The US, the UK, France, Italy?

I could be wrong, but I get the impression that Germany has even less "swing voters" than most countries.

Seems like the left and right coalitions can never go under 46 or above 49.

Actual election results seem to depend almost solely on turnout.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah, the impression I've always had about Germany is that it's all about turnout. Swing voters generally swing between left-wing parties or between right-wing parties.

[Hans-im-Glück]

3 new federal polls:

Allensbach (27.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     34.5 %
SPD             25 %
Greens        11.5 %
FDP             13 %
Left             11 %
Others          5 %

Right     47.5%
Left       47.5%

Emnid (27.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     35 %
SPD             24 %
Greens        13 %
FDP             10 %
Left             12 %
Others          6 %

Right     45%
Left       49%

Forsa (27.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     36 %
SPD             21 %
Greens        16 % 
FDP               9 % 
Left             11 %
Others          7 %

Right     45%
Left       48%

[KuntaKinte]

Forsa (27.01.2010)

Greens        16 %

Forsa has become such a complete joke. They just hunt for headlines.

[Tender Branson]

NRW / Forsa (03.02.2010)

CDU: 41%
SPD: 32%
Greens: 11%
FDP: 6%
Left: 5%
Others: 5%

Opposition: 48%
Government: 47%

[Tender Branson]

The new Infratest dimap poll for ARD:

CDU/CSU: 36% (+2)
SPD: 26% (+3)
Greens: 15% (+4)
Left: 11% (-1)
FDP: 8% (-7)
Others: 4% (-2)

Opposition: 52%
Government: 44%

[mileslunn]

Isn't it amazing how polarized the German electorate is?

The German electorate is very polarized, but isn't it in most western democracies nowadays? The US, the UK, France, Italy?

I think most Western democracies are quite polarized, the United States being the most.  Even though Germany is polarized in its voting patterns, I don't get the impression that the same animosity exists towards their opponents as is the case in the United States.  I should note Canada is one example that doesn't seem that polarized as 30-40% vote for the Tories who are on the right and the remaining 60-70% vote for parties on the centre-left, thus unless you define the Liberals is right in the centre, it appears the left has an advantage in Canada.  Now it is true that if you ask Canadians which party they want to win the next election it is a bit more polarized as usually only slightly more want the Liberals to win over the Tories.  Also Britain in its last election, only 32% voted for the Tories and combined together, 36% voted for parties on the right (I included the BNP, UKIP, Ulster Unionist, Democratic Unionist etc.) and in the previous two elections it was even less.  By contrast in Switzerland, around 2/3 vote for parties on the right (SVP, CVP, and FDP and a few smaller parties) while only a 1/3 on the left (SDP, Greens and a few smaller ones).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Even though Germany is polarized in its voting patterns, I don't get the impression that the same animosity exists towards their opponents as is the case in the United States.

I'm not sure whether it's a cause or a effect of this, but you also have to keep in mind that we have governing coalitions crossing the lines of the traditional political camps. Currently these are the CDU/SPD coalitions in Mecklenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia, as well as the CDU/Green(/FDP) coalitions in Hamburg and Saarland.

[mileslunn]

Even though Germany is polarized in its voting patterns, I don't get the impression that the same animosity exists towards their opponents as is the case in the United States.

I'm not sure whether it's a cause or a effect of this, but you also have to keep in mind that we have governing coalitions crossing the lines of the traditional political camps. Currently these are the CDU/SPD coalitions in Mecklenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia, as well as the CDU/Green(/FDP) coalitions in Hamburg and Saarland.

That may be part of, mind you there have been several times in US history where the party that controlled congress was different than that of the president and historically there was far more bipartisan cooperation than today.  I would also argue countries using the first past the post system tend to have less cross-party cooperation since winning a majority is possible whereas in countries that use some form of proportional representation, it is pretty much out of the question.