a question for vorlon...

[WalterMitty]

i know that you have, from the begining, predicted a kerry victory.  if i remember correctly, you even predicted nevada to swing to kerry by nov. 2.

do you still believe kerry *will* win? 

[elcorazon]

i know that you have, from the begining, predicted a kerry victory.  if i remember correctly, you even predicted nevada to swing to kerry by nov. 2.

do you still believe kerry *will* win? 

I'm not vorlon, but I thought vorlon originally believed Bush would win.  I'm not sure he was ever too definitive about it, however, ALWAYS saying his signature was a current snapshot, not a prediction of election day.  That's what I thought.

[J. J.]

Vorlon's last prediction was 4/14/04 and showed Bush with 300 votes.

[The Vorlon]

i know that you have, from the begining, predicted a kerry victory.  if i remember correctly, you even predicted nevada to swing to kerry by nov. 2.

do you still believe kerry *will* win? 

This campaign has been an eye-opener to me.

The fundementals for Bush have been, and remain, just brutal.

Bush is the only president since Hoover to lose jobs.  It is true the .com bust and 9-11 are a big chunk of the reason, but the President is a lot like the quarterback of a football team - if the team wins he gets too much credit, if the team loses he gets too much blame.

Iraq, which I support conceptually (Saddam killed 500K => 1000K  people, it is hard to be "against" taking him out) has been an operational and tactical disaster.

The media hates Bush in a way that no GOP president has ever faced, not even Reagan.  Dan Rather, Peter Jennings, CNN, PBS are doing everything but wearing Kerry Edwards buttons.

Yet here we are 2 weeks out and Bush is, however modestly, a little bit ahead.

Based on the "fundementals" Gore should have won in 2000 in a cakewalk too.

I am left with no other choice but to conclude Karl Rove is good at what he does.

When it come to voter turnout and GOTV, this is really the first year EVER that the GOP has "got religion" and are going flat out, all out on GOTV like they actually mean it.

After a late start due to a misplaced faith that McCain Feingold was actually worth the paper is was writen on, GOP leaning 527s have cut in "big time" and are now dramatically outspending their Democratic rivals.

I also sense in some of the polling data an effect I can only discribe as "hatred fatigue" - GOP levels of interest in the election are still rising and are actually already a bit above historical election eve levels, while Democratic levels are actually very modestly starting to drop a bit.

Two weeks is about 2 years in politics and I am sure there are a lot of "revelations" yet to come in the press and from Team Kerry, but if you're a GOP type there is cause for cautious optimism.

Right now the undecided are starting to break and early data is that they are breaking basically 50 / 50, which is a huge positive for Bush.

A week ago TIPP had Bush up 3% with 7% undecided, they now have him up 3% with 5% undecided.

Kerry needs the bulk of the undecideds and the longer they split 50/50 or even 60/40 Bush gets closer to winning.

If you look at the last 9 polls in the 3 way race at RCP, other than Zogby, Bush is no lower than 48% in any of them.  

ABC/Wash Post - 50%
Zogby - 45%
TIPP - 49%
CNN/USAT/Gallup  - 52%
Time - 48%
Newsweek - 50%
GW/Battleground - 49%
CBS News - 48%
ICR 48%

By contrast, other than two polls which have Kerry at 47%, the other 7 polls all have Kerry at either 45% or 44% - Kerry's average is 45.3%

Most importantly, Undecideds are, on average, down to 4.2% according to the average of the last 9 polls.

If we assume Nader, Cobb, Badnarik, LooneyTunes, etc collectively get say 2% that means if Bush nudges over 49% he wins.

Bush is at 48% even being very cautious looking at the polls, meaning he needs 25% of the undecided.

25% is quite reasonable.

Right now the election is 50 / 50.

Bush will lose a point or two in the media assault over the last weekend, and there will be a ton of Kerry Comeback stories to help the Dems in GOTV, so Bush still is a loooooong way from home, but yes he is very much in the game which, everything taken into accort, surprises me.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon's last prediction was 4/14/04 and showed Bush with 300 votes.

Vorlon's last prediction was 4/14/04 and showed Bush with 300 votes.

I just used to use that for making maps.

This was my "official" prediction posted I guess close to 5 months ago now which I have never amended.



I'll give West Virginia and Nevada back to Bush...

The rest... I'll let you know

[J. J.]

I don't predict until Mid-September and that's it.

George W. Bush is exceptionally hard to predict.  Looking back to the RNC, I predicted a bounce of up to 8 points, which would disappear in about a week.  By 9/30, I expected Bush to have about a 3 point lead.  After the debates, at this point, I expected Kerry to have a 5-7 point lead.  It's not there, is it?

[TheOldLine]

Vorlon,

On what data are you basing your statement on "undecideds".   I'm very interested in that.

TheOldLine

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm sick of people saying that media is anti-Bush when it's clearly not.

[dougrhess]

I'm sick of people saying that media is anti-Bush when it's clearly not.

I've come to the conclusion that our mainstream media is just stupid. Not pro or anti this candidate, just bad. The only thing worth reading are journalists who know how to write long investigative pieces or the classic long essay.

[Shira]

Vorlon's last prediction was 4/14/04 and showed Bush with 300 votes.

Vorlon's last prediction was 4/14/04 and showed Bush with 300 votes.

I just used to use that for making maps.

This was my "official" prediction posted I guess close to 5 months ago now which I have never amended.



I'll give West Virginia and Nevada back to Bush...

The rest... I'll let you know

"I'll give West Virginia and Nevada back to Bush..."
Then Bush still will lose because of the red OH.

[Shira]

i know that you have, from the begining, predicted a kerry victory.  if i remember correctly, you even predicted nevada to swing to kerry by nov. 2.

do you still believe kerry *will* win? 

This campaign has been an eye-opener to me.

The fundementals for Bush have been, and remain, just brutal.

Bush is the only president since Hoover to lose jobs.  It is true the .com bust and 9-11 are a big chunk of the reason, but the President is a lot like the quarterback of a football team - if the team wins he gets too much credit, if the team loses he gets too much blame.

Iraq, which I support conceptually (Saddam killed 500K => 1000K  people, it is hard to be "against" taking him out) has been an operational and tactical disaster.

The media hates Bush in a way that no GOP president has ever faced, not even Reagan.  Dan Rather, Peter Jennings, CNN, PBS are doing everything but wearing Kerry Edwards buttons.

Yet here we are 2 weeks out and Bush is, however modestly, a little bit ahead.

Based on the "fundementals" Gore should have won in 2000 in a cakewalk too.

I am left with no other choice but to conclude Karl Rove is good at what he does.

When it come to voter turnout and GOTV, this is really the first year EVER that the GOP has "got religion" and are going flat out, all out on GOTV like they actually mean it.

After a late start due to a misplaced faith that McCain Feingold was actually worth the paper is was writen on, GOP leaning 527s have cut in "big time" and are now dramatically outspending their Democratic rivals.

I also sense in some of the polling data an effect I can only discribe as "hatred fatigue" - GOP levels of interest in the election are still rising and are actually already a bit above historical election eve levels, while Democratic levels are actually very modestly starting to drop a bit.

Two weeks is about 2 years in politics and I am sure there are a lot of "revelations" yet to come in the press and from Team Kerry, but if you're a GOP type there is cause for cautious optimism.

Right now the undecided are starting to break and early data is that they are breaking basically 50 / 50, which is a huge positive for Bush.

A week ago TIPP had Bush up 3% with 7% undecided, they now have him up 3% with 5% undecided.

Kerry needs the bulk of the undecideds and the longer they split 50/50 or even 60/40 Bush gets closer to winning.

If you look at the last 9 polls in the 3 way race at RCP, other than Zogby, Bush is no lower than 48% in any of them.  

ABC/Wash Post - 50%
Zogby - 45%
TIPP - 49%
CNN/USAT/Gallup  - 52%
Time - 48%
Newsweek - 50%
GW/Battleground - 49%
CBS News - 48%
ICR 48%

By contrast, other than two polls which have Kerry at 47%, the other 7 polls all have Kerry at either 45% or 44% - Kerry's average is 45.3%

Most importantly, Undecideds are, on average, down to 4.2% according to the average of the last 9 polls.

If we assume Nader, Cobb, Badnarik, LooneyTunes, etc collectively get say 2% that means if Bush nudges over 49% he wins.

Bush is at 48% even being very cautious looking at the polls, meaning he needs 25% of the undecided.

25% is quite reasonable.

Right now the election is 50 / 50.

Bush will lose a point or two in the media assault over the last weekend, and there will be a ton of Kerry Comeback stories to help the Dems in GOTV, so Bush still is a loooooong way from home, but yes he is very much in the game which, everything taken into accort, surprises me.

Basically the Democrats are far stronger than the Republicans. If the turnout were 75%-80% like it is in most European countries then, I estimate, the ratio would have nationally been 60:40 in favor of the Dems.
I mentioned in one post the 88M who did not vote in 2000. Among this people potential Dems substantially outnumber potential Reps.
These people are apathetic toward politics, but their stances are much closer to the Dems' ones.
Among the Reps there are some enthusiastic/religious/devoted/idiological people who have difficulties to understand how the other person has these "strange" views and ideas.
We see that the vast majority of radio talk shows strongly support the Reps. Why? Because the quiet Dem majority does not have the time to care too much about and to listen to radio talk shows.

[J. J.]

Shira,

You are stereotyping to the point of being classist.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm sick of people saying that media is anti-Bush when it's clearly not.

I've come to the conclusion that our mainstream media is just stupid. Not pro or anti this candidate, just bad. The only thing worth reading are journalists who know how to write long investigative pieces or the classic long essay.

Where are these journalists?

[Friar]

I also sense in some of the polling data an effect I can only discribe as "hatred fatigue" - GOP levels of interest in the election are still rising and are actually already a bit above historical election eve levels, while Democratic levels are actually very modestly starting to drop a bit.

Wrong! Democrats will surpass every turnout prediction. The level of enthusiasm among dems is really great.

I believe we'll turn 5-6% more voters than the republicans in the swing states and this will be the difference between winning or losing.

[dougrhess]

I'm sick of people saying that media is anti-Bush when it's clearly not.

I've come to the conclusion that our mainstream media is just stupid. Not pro or anti this candidate, just bad. The only thing worth reading are journalists who know how to write long investigative pieces or the classic long essay.

Where are these journalists?

The stupid ones, or the good ones? ;-)

Just look for good writing and read broadly. I like some of the blog stuff, but I really like to read print. Sadly, I'm in phd program fulltime, so I have waaay to much to read (and shouldn't be on this website either!). I would recommend the Wilson Center Quarterly as a journal that should get more attention than it does. I like the NY Review of Books, too. The online version lets you look up all past articles, which often include some great back and forths in the letters section.

There are also some books each year that summarize the best essays of the year. I haven't flipped through them, but I'd be interested as to what people think of them. Some are general, some on politics, some on science, etc.