Possible Leadership Challenge Tomorrow - Australia

[Smid]

News agencies are reporting that it's possible there will be a leadership challenge tomorrow during the Liberal Party Room meeting.

Kevin Andrews is considered to be the likely challenger, and he certainly has been getting plenty of press over the past few weeks.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/kevin-andrews-says-he-is-ready-to-serve-as-liberal-leader/story-e6frgczf-1225802252949

[Platypus]

Unlikely to occur, even less likely to succeed.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

If there wasn't even a challenge in height of both Whitlam and Fraser's stubbornness in late 1975 its very safe to say that there will not be a challenge today. Not to mention it would be an act of political suicide for the Liberals who are already up sh**tcreek enough as it is.

Andrews? Sure Turnbull is hapless, and has the numbers to boot, but Andrews would be much worse. He would, in my opinion further alienate the deteriorating Liberal base, thus causing an even greater electoral annihilation to ensue sometime next year. The only guy that could salvage the Liberals somewhat would be Hockey, but we must remember what happened the last time when the Libs went with the "dream ticket" back in '94.

[Хahar 🤔]

Again?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Again?

Why ask such daft questions Xahar? After all, this is the Australian Liberal Party post Menzies we're talking about.

[Smid]

Question Time now, so the Party Room meeting has finished. Turnbull's still in the seat and there's no new media articles about a leadership change, so therefore there was no change.

EDIT: Sounds like the Party Room Meeting was adjourned, not concluded.

[Хahar 🤔]

Again?

Why ask such daft questions Xahar? After all, this is the Australian Liberal Party post Menzies we're talking about.

There were no such things under Howard!

[Smid]

It seems Tuckey is calling for a spill...

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/rebel-libs-threaten-to-call-leadership-spill-over-secret-ballot-on-ets/story-e6frg6xf-1225803362181

[Robespierre's Jaw]

There were no such things under Howard!

Try telling that to Andrew Peacock.

It seems Tuckey is calling for a spill...

Over the years I have come to adopt the belief never to listen to a word Iron Bar says, so I am not taking these spill calls seriously. Regardless of Iron Bar's remarks why would you  when pundits are tossing about not only Kevin Andrews but also Julie Bishop.

[Smid]

Turnbull survives leadership challenge, 48-35.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-retains-liberal-leadership/story-e6frgczf-1225803686909

[Robespierre's Jaw]

If there wasn't even a challenge in height of both Whitlam and Fraser's stubbornness in late 1975 its very safe to say that there will not be a challenge today. Not to mention it would be an act of political suicide for the Liberals who are already up sh**tcreek enough as it is.

I believe, I spoke too soon, like in April 2007 when I expected the Libs to win: Abbott to challenge on Monday.

Turnbull brought this upon himself; last night's conference did little to ease the tensions of the previous 24 hours, that saw several members of the Liberal frontbench, including Nick Minchin and Tony Smith among others quit and thus the spill has been caused. Regardless, Abbott, whom will most likely be the next leader of Her Majesty's Opposition or even Hockey if he has the ball's to challenge will lead the Libs to electoral annihilation, worse than 1943.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

My prediction's about my nation's politics are getting worse by the day. Joe Hockey, former Howard Government minister has announced, after much speculation that he will indeed run for the leadership today, if a spill is called, which is certain. He will join confirmed starters Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, and is expected to win, not on the first ballot but rather the second when Turnbull (most likely) will be pushed out of the race. Who would have guessed that the actions of Peter Costello would have such an effect on his beloved party?

[Smid]

Abbott by a single vote.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Abbott by a single vote.

RIP Liberal Party. I wonder what Bob thinks of this spectacle.

[MaxQue]

So, Liberal Party created a system where a leader is only staying a year?

[Хahar 🤔]

So, Liberal Party created a system where a leader is only staying a year?

Indeed.

If they were smart, they would move to conventions, like the Canadian system.

[MaxQue]

So, Liberal Party created a system where a leader is only staying a year?

Indeed.

If they were smart, they would move to conventions, like the Canadian system.

Canadian system ensures than a poor leader will stay if he is decided to stay, is a failure is they need a new leader quickly (establishment decides, then) and is giving some strange results (Dion, WTF?).

[cinyc]

So, Liberal Party created a system where a leader is only staying a year?

The moral of the story is don't try to force your caucus to vote for something they are strongly against.  They will rebel - and force you out of your leadership post. 

Climategate has claimed its first victim.  May many more follow should politicians continue down the path of claiming the science is settled and we must act now - like some infomercial hawker.

[Smid]

The Australian Democrats used the Canadian system to elect leaders, using postal ballots. Their last leadership challenge dragged on for six weeks and made them look like the ADQ did recently in their leadership ballot. They don't have a leader now because all their Senators have lost their seats. I prefer our system. There have been two leadership ballots in the space of a week, but things will hopefully settle down now.

The moral of the story is don't try to force your caucus to vote for something they are strongly against.  They will rebel - and force you out of your leadership post. 

It was more that Turnbull was attempting to force all Liberal MPs and Senators to adopt his position, whereas the majority were opposed to it. When Abbott was elected, he took an immediate secret ballot in the party room in which a large majority opposed the ETS legislation. If the majority had supported it, Turnbull probably could have expected loyalty to the position he placed the party and for dissenters to support it.

[Хahar 🤔]

The Australian Democrats used the Canadian system to elect leaders, using postal ballots. Their last leadership challenge dragged on for six weeks and made them look like the ADQ did recently in their leadership ballot. They don't have a leader now because all their Senators have lost their seats. I prefer our system. There have been two leadership ballots in the space of a week, but things will hopefully settle down now.

Well, postal balloting is a bad idea, too. Let delegates decide the leader.

[Hash]

I know Abbott is a crazy social conservative a Howard-clone, but why does his leadership entail a rout for the Liberals in the next election?

[Platypus]

Because Labor was already going to win by a large margin, and Abbott is less popular amongst moderates than Turnbull, so and crossover support the Libs may have gotten will now be lost. Abbott is great for the base, but bad for the party.

[2952-0-0]

Ah, so just like the Republicans in the US and the PCs in Ontario?

[Platypus]

Ah, so just like the Republicans in the US and the PCs in Ontario?

Closest mirror would be John Howard himself, actually, in the 80s - too conservative for the general population, against a popular, moderate ALP leader who had very high levels of control over his party.