Change That We Didn't Hope For: 2008 Election

[aaaa2222]

Keep it up, please.

[Lahbas]

The only thing I find wrong with this is the popular vote results of the election. How did Obama end up with MORE of the vote, and McCain LESS, even with voter fraud supporting McCain in this election. Also you forgot the Third Party vote.

[sentinel]

The only thing I find wrong with this is the popular vote results of the election. How did Obama end up with MORE of the vote, and McCain LESS, even with voter fraud supporting McCain in this election. Also you forgot the Third Party vote.

It's not wrong. I used my popular vote simulator to simulate the results. The turnout of each state was an average between the 2004 turnout and the real 2008 turnout. McCain wins by the same percentage, as does Obama, in all states that went Republican in 2008, including Missouri. I added 3-5% more on Obama's margin of victory in populous Democratic states such as in the Northeast and California. In some instances, where there was an already close race -- such as in North Carolina -- I just switched the Obama and McCain numbers.

In the real 2008 election, Obama takes 52.9% of the popular vote, in my simulation he takes 1.52% more, due to a combination of a larger voter turnout in Democratic strongholds and a wider margin of victory in those same states. McCain takes 45.7% of the popular vote in reality, and in my time line he takes 44.64% -- a 1.06% difference. Obviously, McCain's percentage of the popular vote will decrease as Obama supporters turn out in greater numbers.

I took third party vote into consideration, and third party vote wasn't a major factor in the 2008 election. Third party vote, in the real 2008 election, accounted for 1.4% of the popular vote. In my simulation it accounts for .9% of the vote, which is about .5% less.

If you want to talk numbers, here's the difference between the popular vote between my timeline and the real deal.

Obama: 465,920 more in the timeline.
McCain: 2,585,876 less in my timeline.

The McCain number is much larger, because he lost votes in the Democratic strongholds, and I cut his margin in Texas from 55/43 to 53/46

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This is extremely good.

[tmthforu94]

This is extremely good.

But unrealistic. The aftermath wouldn't be this crazy.

[tonyreyes89]

Excellent, continue.

[sentinel]

This is extremely good.

But unrealistic. The aftermath wouldn't be this crazy.

Makes it more exciting

[Mechaman]

This is extremely good.

But unrealistic. The aftermath wouldn't be this crazy.

Makes it more exciting

All we need now is all out genocide being waged between the two sides

[auburntiger]

Next update soon I hope. Very good story.

[CatoMinor]

Excellent, continue.

[sentinel]

I appreciate the positive feedback so far. If you have any ideas feel free to private message me.

“McCain – Palin Campaign Headquarters, how can I help you?
“It’s Tom Loeffler, I need Richard Davis”
“Don’t you have his direct line Mr. Loeffler?”
“Yeah – dialed the main line accidently, could you put me through?”
“Certainly, please hold…”
“Tom?”
“Yeah, Richard, look”
“Why didn’t you call my direct line?”
“Cause I pressed send on the wrong number in my phone book, look…”
“Hate when that happens, whats up?”
“Did you hear about Frank Melville?”
“Yeah, its horrible…they still don’t know how he died”
“Is the campaign going to issue a statement?”
“No, the RNC has sent his family their condolences.”
“Okay…good…”
“Is that the only reason you called?”
“Well...”
“What is it?”
“We might have some trouble coming our way”
“Thanks for the warning, but we’re handling it –we won in District Court, they’ll back us in Appeals –and if these fraud allegations in North Carolina are true, we’ll push for election reform as soon as we get in office…the Democrats will eat it up…”
“There’s something –“
“I gotta go, Palin’s on the other line, feel free to stop by sometime –bye!”



Another conversation later in the day…
“I’ve been thinking about this whole mess…”
“What are your thoughts, sir?”
“I don’t think its fair to the American people, its incredibly unfair, and honestly, downright undemocratic.”
“Sir, it’s what the Founding Fathers wanted”
“The Founding Fathers never thought there would be a situation like the one we’re in now. I want to address the Electoral College…”
“Sir, they don’t meet as one body ever, and this would be completely unprecedented”
“The whole damn situation is unprecedented, it calls for decisive action.”
“You could address them via a national speech, or through a press conference since they don’t meet as one body, but what will you say to them?”
“I fall asleep at night fighting with myself over this; this might just be the hardest decision of my life. I hate what’s happening in the streets of America, I didn’t want this to end up as dirty of a result as it is now”

November 25th 2008

   The North Carolina Attorney General says a report is farther off than expected. The media is disappointed that Attorney General Ray Cooper cannot provide them with more details about the ongoing investigation as the findings could influence who the next President is.
Wyoming votes down legislation that would call for a Constitutional Convention.
The Georgia State Legislature calls for a Constitutional Convention.
When asked, George W. Bush still says he firmly stands behind President-elect John McCain.

November 26th 2008

   Sarah Palin, who thought she was off the record, is recorded as saying “Whoever is protesting or rioting in the streets are just sore losers –they know how the system worked when they went out to vote, and now that they’re guy didn’t win –they’re rioting about it. These rioters have killed a hundred or two hundred Americans since Election Day –they should be put in jail with their like”

   The McCain campaign immediately says the statement is not the view of the campaign or of Senator McCain. The McCain camp says that they “support the protestors and their right to peacefully protest, but anyone who took part in a serious crime, should be brought to justice appropriately.”

   The media goes on a blitz about Sarah Palin’s comments while protestors and rioters are back out on the streets in larger numbers than they had been previously.

   The stock market has also dropped, seriously, from foreign investors pulling out of American companies due to the election results. Many countries are refusing to do business with the United States until “the legitimate” President is recognized. Countries such as France, Russia, Brazil, Japan and Turkey all agree that the United States would never allow this to happen in a foreign nation.

   President Bush responds to these countries that refuse to do business with them “The countries that refuse to have diplomatic ties with the United States as a result of the elections have shown disrespect to our Electoral System, a system that they have had no problem with for the past two hundred years –recognizing every other President elected in the same fashion” He goes on to say his Administration is still willing to do business with its usual partners.

President Bush’s approval rating is still hovering around 12%

November 28th 2008
   CNN – Anderson Cooper 360: As of today, 15 states have called for a Constitutional Convention, 1 state has rejected calls for it, and legislation is pending in 15 more. It is inevitable that more and more states will take up legislation calling for a Constitutional Convention. But what is a Constitutional Convention? How does it work? Who are the delegates? How many delegates from each state go? What is the goal of this Constitutional Convention? Election reform is certainly on the table after the Election Crisis of 2008 –but these are all questions that political operatives and average Americans are asking themselves. These are all questions not addressed in the Constitution. Some historians have even gone as far to say that the Constitutional Convention is the doomsday option that our predecessors wrote into our Founding Document. 
   With the Federal Court of Appeals due to make a decision tomorrow, what will Senator Barack Obama do if he loses? Will he concede defeat even though he has a margin of victory in the popular vote of 12.5 million?
   The Electoral College is still scheduled to meet in less than a month. Will they take unprecedented action due to the results?


November 30th 2008

Blue = Called for a Constitutional Convention (21)
Green = Legislation Proposed (20)
Red = Legislation Defeated (4)
Grey = Not Considering (5)

In an office on Capitol Hill

“If this gets anywhere near 33…we need to pass the Amendment…we’re going to need your help, Senator.”
“The Party won’t like it. I’ll be ostracized.”
“You won’t be the only one…this is for America…only God knows what will happen if we wait for a Constitutional Convention…we’ll be a laughing stock internationally…it’s going to be chaos…”
“It’s chaos already, I don’t think it can get much worse”

[sentinel]

“I’m going to make the announcement, Rick”
“Senator, are you sure you want to do that?”
“I have not been more certain of anything else in my life.”

December 1st 2008

   The Federal Court of Appeals, a few days later than expected, unexpectedly rules in favor of Senator Barack Obama saying “it would be against the Constitution to allow Senator McCain to take office, when he was by more than a reasonable doubt not the choice of the American people for the Presidency.  The very fabric of our Union is in question, and we must save it.”

The McCain campaign appeals to the United States Supreme Court.

Protesters are still present on the streets of major cities, but in substantially smaller numbers. A major protest is planned for December 2nd 2008, one month after the election.

December 2nd 2008

   Over three million people march on Capitol Hill to protest the 2008 election. They hold signs with slogans like “12.5 million voices unheard,” “Electoral Reform NOW,” and the usual “Impeach Bush.”
   The McCain Campaign cancels a high profile press conference with Senator McCain without explanation.
   International Investigators say that there are concrete hints of “massive voter fraud” and the United States Attorney General and FBI should launch a national investigation.
   Reporters confirm that Senator McCain has been hospitalized for shortness of breath and chest pains.

December 3rd 2008
   Senator McCain issues a statement from the hospital, saying it was merely precautionary, and he will be out of the hospital tomorrow.
   At least two million protestors are still present at the march on Capitol Hill. The United States House of Representatives passes a resolution recognizing the protestors and their goal.
   Delaware, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa and Washington all call for a Constitutional Convention.

   Utah and Montana both reject calls for a Constitutional Convention.

   30 states are now calling for a Constitutional Convention including every state that voted for Senator Barack Obama.

   Hours after Washington called for a Constitutional Convention (the 30th state to do so), Majority Leader Senator Harry Reid and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi both called for a stop of normal procedures and to vote on the Feingold Amendment.

   The Feingold Amendment (which would make electoral votes distributed by Congressional District, DC would be the only winner-take-all district) is rejected in the Senate when it falls two votes short of 2/3rds majority.  58-40. Republicans Mel Martinez of Florida, Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Gordon Smith of Oregon, and Richard Lugar of Indiana voted in favor of the Amendment. Senator John McCain was not present at the vote.

Senator Barack Obama voted in favor of the amendment.

   Simultaneously, the Feingold Amendment is passed by the House 285 to 150 with all the Democrats and 50 Republicans.

*Note the outcome of the 2008 House & Senate races were the same end result as  in reality, just thought I’d throw that out there now.

December 10th 2008
The FBI arrests two men, who they think have connections with voter fraud in North Carolina, in southern Florida.

December 14th 2008

The McCain campaign issues a statement saying that Senator McCain will address the nation and the Electoral College in a statement tomorrow morning (December 14th).

Pundits begin speculating on this completely unprecedented move.

The New York Times gets word that the North Carolina Attorney General’s Report on the 2008 Election Fraud will be released on the 15th.

Protesters begin rallying at State Capitols around the United States to show their disappointment and disgust with the 2008 election ahead of the voting of the Electoral College.

   

Blue =  Called for a Constitutional Convention (30)
Green = Legislation Proposed (11)
Red = Legislation Defeated (9)

[sentinel]

A phone rings near the McCain-Palin Headquarters
“Rick, look, we need to talk.”
“Tom, I can’t right now –something just hap—“
“—listen to me damnit –“
“No, you listen to me, the Senator’s back in the hospital, I need to get over there NOW”

December 15th 2008

   The McCain-Palin campaign cancels its speech, the second major press conference in two weeks. They say Senator McCain had to go into the hospital for some work to be done.
   The Electoral College begins voting for President.  Electors in Columbus, Ohio are
attacked on their way to the State Capital.  3 of the electors are hospitalized as a result.

   In other states, Electors are being brought to their respective State Capital under protection already.

   As the electors are voting, the North Carolina Attorney General releases the report regarding voter fraud in North Carolina on November 4th. The report states “…massive organized voter fraud across the state…there are thousands of cases of paper ballots not matching up with the tabulating machines…fraud by absentee ballot…many cases of “over voting” in certain areas…we don’t know how many ballots could have been discarded…North Carolina will continue its investigation and is considering several courses of action in response to the problem…The two men the FBI arrested in Florida are allegedly the two main conspirators behind the voter fraud. They suspect there were hundreds of other people involved in the state alone.

Reporter: Attorney General Cooper – will you consider working with the Federal Government and holding another election for North Carolinians?

Cooper: Yes, we’ll definitely consider it although I don’t know how plausible it is, or any specific details at this time.

(To Be Continued)

[tmthforu94]

Well, this is becoming a hack timeline. The Federal Court of Appeals would never favor Obama on this, since McCain obviously won this election constitutionally. And you're clearly trying to make Sarah Palin look terrible on almost every post.
Interesting, but extremely unrealistic.

[pogo stick]

Well, this is becoming a hack timeline. The Federal Court of Appeals would never favor Obama on this, since McCain obviously won this election constitutionally. And you're clearly trying to make Sarah Palin look terrible on almost every post.
Interesting, but extremely unrealistic.

So what if it's unrealistic? It's good, but of course I don't like that McCain cheated...


Keep up the work

[aaaa2222]

MORE

[Progressive]

This is a riveting timeline. Keep up the great work, I really want more!

[sentinel]

Well, this is becoming a hack timeline. The Federal Court of Appeals would never favor Obama on this, since McCain obviously won this election constitutionally. And you're clearly trying to make Sarah Palin look terrible on almost every post.
Interesting, but extremely unrealistic.

The Federal Court of Appeals was a hard call. I originally was going to have them side with McCain, but then I wasn't sure if the case would have been appealed to the Supreme Court. Regardless if I'm right or wrong on that one, it makes it more interesting.

I'll be the first to admit, I'm not a fan of Sarah Palin, but me making her look bad on some post ties into a plot development later (at least it does right now).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Very well written and interesting, no matter how implausible.  Keep it coming

[sentinel]

“Dick?”
“Yes, Mr. President”
“I think we’re going to have a problem.”



December 15th 2008 Continued

9:07am – Electors begin voting on the east coast. The 3 electors attacked in Ohio are hospitalized.

9:20am –The Secretary of State of North Carolina, Elaine Marshall, withdraws her election certification which had certified that John McCain won the state.

9:42am – West Virginia calls for a Constitutional Convention becoming the 31st state to do so
.
10:20am – Nevada calls for a Constitutional Convention becoming the 32st state to do so.

1:00pm – The Electoral College ends up being 256 votes for Senator John McCain to 264 for Senator Barack Obama. 18 delegates are not voting due to 3 of the delegates’ hospitalization in Ohio and the 15 from North Carolina. The votes are sent to Congress to be officially counted on January 8th 2009.

2:00pm – Hawaii becomes the 33rd state, the final state required, to call for a Constitutional Convention.

Since the results are immediately known, and the Constitution calls for an immediate session of Congress, but the Constitution also assumes that the results will not be known before the new Congress is sworn in, the 111th Congress will pick the next President of the United States on January 8th 2009.

   Congress orders a federal investigation into voting fraud in all states with less than a 5% margin of victory. This includes Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Colorado, Montana, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio. This is equivalent to 129 Electoral Votes which all went for John McCain. The narrowest margin in a state that Barack Obama won was 9.3% in Iowa.

3:00pm – Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana says that he would like to take the initiative
in leading the Constitutional Convention, and since one of this sort has not happened before –he invites the Governors of all 50 states to Helena to discuss how to start the Convention.

3:20pm – Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi commends Governor Schweitzer for stepping forward and he offers to help Schweitzer lead the discussions in Helena. Governor Barbour admits that he was worried about the chaos that would follow the calling of a Constitutional Convention, but that Schweitzer’s first steps are a good signs but they are not out of the woods yet.

Blue = Called For a Constitutional Convention (33)
Green = Legislation Proposed (
Red = Legislation Failed (9)

5:00pm – Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania echoes the concerns of Governor Schweitzer and Governor Barbour but insists that this meeting and all subsequent ones be held in Philadelphia where the original Constitutional Convention was held.

5:30pm – Outgoing Governor Matt Bond of Missouri calls for Missouri to hold this meeting since Missouri is the population epicenter of the United States.

CNN Analysis:
   Obama supporters are hopeful once again thanks to the North Carolina electors refusing to vote today. Now the Presidential Election is turned over to the Democratic controlled United States Congress, where it is quite possible that Senator Barack Obama will come out as President. Neither campaign has made any statement today, due to John McCain’s second hospitalization in two weeks.

   McCain supporters are bound to feel disenfranchised by the refusal to pledge their votes by the North Carolina delegations today. But should all Americans be relieved that this small group of 15 electors is concerned that the voice of every voter on election day was not heard?

   Simultaneously, the unprecedented calling for a Constitutional Convention by 33 states, including every state that voted for Senator Barack Obama, will reshape history and how people look at our Constitution and government. This entire world will be watching to how we handle this unprecedented calling to reshape the very foundation of our government. The United States Constitution could theoretically leave the convention as radically different from where we are today.

Will Governors continue to bicker over where a preliminary meeting should take place, or will they put their country ahead of their own personal agenda?

   On top of all of this, the United States is involved in two wars, are we now more vulnerable than we were before? What will happen if a President isn’t elected by the House of Representatives by January 20th? Could we see a President Pelosi?

[Progressive]

More, por favor.

[sentinel]

More, por favor.

Sorry for the lack of posting. I've been busy this past week and haven't had a chance to write. Now that I'm on a bus for the next two hours, I'll definitely post.

[tonyreyes89]

More, por favor.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great TL.

[sentinel]

Sorry guys. I will have another update tonight.

A café In Washington DC
“Rick, I’m glad you could meet me here today.”
“No problem Tom, you’ve been hounding me for a while…what is it?”
“I’m in a little over my head…you have to listen carefully…”
“We’re all in over our heads, aren’t we?”
“Before the election, back in January…I was afraid we’d lose the election, Obama had momentum”
“So did we”
“By the time he clinched the nomination, I was sure that we’d lose, but that’s not what bothered me. I had serious doubts of Obama’s character…”
“What are you saying Tom?”
“Well, I contacted someone who could make it happen…”
“I can’t listen to this, I can’t believe you…I need to go, I can’t be a part of this. If you were involved in any way with what’s going on now, you need to hold yourself responsible.”

December 16th 2009
   President George W. Bush addresses the nation about the current events. He assures the nation and the world that the government of the United States will continue functioning as normal during this time. He says although the circumstances are unprecedented, he says he will sit down with both candidates later in the day and discuss what will happen in the future.
   The President also orders all the Governors to come to Washington DC on December 18th 2008  for them to discuss how to proceed in calling for a Constitutional Convention.
North Carolina releases early estimates that at least 30,000 votes were fraudulent and its looking into about 75,000 more.  Most of these were made by absentee, electronic voting machines or discarded ballots.

The three men who were arrested in regards to voter fraud in North Carolina, still aren’t talking. The FBI has not released any information regarding them including their names.

   

December 18th 2009

President Bush mediates a discussion between all 50 Governors at the White House regarding the Constitutional Convention. They agree on a date for the Constitutional Convention – August 15th 2009 in Washington DC, however; they agree that the Governors will not represent their states at the convention but it is unclear how many delegates will attend.  The Governors will meet again January 28th.

December 20th 2009

By now, the protests have died down and President George W. Bush’s approval rating has gone back up to 18%. John McCain and Barack Obama have made themselves scarce in the Senate, attending only major votes. The two have not come in contact with each other. It’s rumored that both transition teams have a potential full cabinet and staff in place and ready to start moving after the new Congress meets on January 8th.
   The remainder of the holiday season remains relatively quiet, and outlook for the next quarter falls.  The US Troop Alertness level has been raised globally due to the uncertainty about the next President of the United States. President Bush warns that any country who tries to take advantage of their transition will be dealt with harshly.  The media focuses on the normal holiday season stories, and how the rest of the world is rooting for Senator Barack Obama who is favored internationally over Senator John McCain.
   
December 27th 2009

   The Attorney General of Ohio states that he has significant reason to believe that the fraud seen in North Carolina has also occurred in Ohio. He says at least 10,000 votes were already found fraudulent and his department will release a report in the new year.  McCain’s margin of victory in Ohio was 5,543 votes.
January 7th 2009
   Protestors take back to the streets all around the nation urging Congress to pick Senator Barack Obama as the next President of the United States. Washington DC has a significant larger amount of protestors than it previously did.

January 8th 2009
   Senator John McCain is readmitted to George Washington hospital for chest pains.
Congress meets.

Composition of Congress:

House of Representatives:

Democrats: 256
Republicans: 178

Senate:

Democrats: 55
Republicans: 41
Independents: 2

In the Senate, a mere majority is needed to elect the Vice President of the United States. In the House of Representatives, the representatives will vote in-bloc with each state having only one vote. The candidate with a majority of votes, 26, will become President-elect. The Senate has agreed to meet after the House, so they can choose the President-elects respective Vice President...