The Youth Vote in 2009

[Vepres]

I was looking over the exit polls for the VA and NJ governor races today, and the stark contrast between the youth votes between the two states really struck me.

Turn out of the youth was roughly the same in both states, but what's interesting is the difference in voting. In New Jersey, the youth were strongly Democratic, favoring Corzine 13 points more than did 30-44 year olds. That fits the trends with Obama last year. However, Virginia is very different. Not surprisingly, McDonnel won all age group, but what is surprising is the difference between 18-29 year olds and 30-44 year olds. There is no significant difference. The youth gave Deeds the same percentage of votes as the 30-44 year olds, 44%, and only 2 points less for McDonnel than the 30-44 year-old group.

This is what puzzles me, why would the youth still be very strongly Democratic relative to Gen Xers in NJ, but practically voting identically with them in VA?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/04/nyregion/1104-nj-exit-poll.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/04/us/politics/1104-va-exit-poll.html

[Franzl]

maybe because Corzine's social liberalism was a motivating factor?

Deeds probably failed to get young Democrats to the polls.

[Sam Spade]

It proves that the youth, especially of the present day, are pretty stupid and react to good advertising more than any sort of beliefs.

[Vepres]

maybe because Corzine's social liberalism was a motivating factor?

Deeds probably failed to get young Democrats to the polls.

Possibly, but that wouldn't explain why the turnout was the same.

[Smash255]

maybe because Corzine's social liberalism was a motivating factor?

Deeds probably failed to get young Democrats to the polls.

Possibly, but that wouldn't explain why the turnout was the same.

Could be a couple things.  One the simple fact that youth turnout was small, the exit polls for the youth also had smaller sample sizes and likely higher margins of error.  Somewhat along the same lines, you could have that 1 in 20 effect, look at the Mississippi youth vote in 2004 as an example.

Also could be as simple youth Republican turnout in VA being stronger than youth Republican turnout in NJ and stronger than youth Democratic turnout in NJ, but youth Democratic turnout in VA being weaker than youth Democratic turnout in NJ or youth Republican turnout in NJ.  Therefore basically cancelling each other out.  Youth McCain and Obama voters in NJ may have been equally as likely to show up (or not show up), meanwhile in VA youth MCCain voters may have been much more likely to show up than youth VA voters.  With how horrid of a campaign Deeds ran that is a good possibility.

[Badger]

It proves that the youth, especially of the present day, are pretty stupid and react to good advertising more than any sort of beliefs.

Yes, Sam. That's exactly what it proves.

And they probably won't stay the hell off your lawn either.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

maybe because Corzine's social liberalism was a motivating factor?

Deeds probably failed to get young Democrats to the polls.

Because Christie's campaign was based around two issues youth don't give a flying  about: property taxes and corruption.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

maybe because Corzine's social liberalism was a motivating factor?

Deeds probably failed to get young Democrats to the polls.

Because Christie's campaign was based around two issues youth don't give a flying  about: property taxes and corruption.

And McDonnell and his theocracy was greatly appealing to youth how?

[Zarn]

The youth in VA are probably closer to swing voters. I know some people here that would vote for a convicted felon, if he were a Democrat.

[pogo stick]

The youth in VA are probably closer to swing voters. I know some people here that would vote for a convicted felon, if he were a Democrat.

Alaska would lamost re-elect a convicted felon, more then once.


2008 (Stevens barely loses to Begich)
2006 (Murkowski just barely loses to Plain)
2004 (L. Murkowski wins)

Tom DeLay would prolly have a good chance of winning in Alaska.


Sean Parnell and Sarah Palin are the greatest things to happen to Alaska.

[CatoMinor]

Sean Parnell and Sarah Palin are the greatest things to happen to Alaska.

I'm pretty sure William H. Seward would beg to differ.

[Bo]

Deeds ran a much worse campaign than Corzine, and thus proportionally more young people voted for McDonnell.

[timmer123]

The youth in VA are probably closer to swing voters. I know some people here that would vote for a convicted felon, if he were a Democrat.

Alaska would lamost re-elect a convicted felon, more then once.


2008 (Stevens barely loses to Begich)
2006 (Murkowski just barely loses to Plain)
2004 (L. Murkowski wins)

Tom DeLay would prolly have a good chance of winning in Alaska.


Sean Parnell and Sarah Palin are the greatest things to happen to Alaska.

Man you need to get your facts straight.  "Murkowski just barely loses to Palin"...?

Murkowski came in third place in the primary, with just 19% of the vote, to Palin's 50%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The youth in VA are probably closer to swing voters. I know some people here that would vote for a convicted felon, if he were a Democrat.

Alaska would lamost re-elect a convicted felon, more then once.


2008 (Stevens barely loses to Begich)
2006 (Murkowski just barely loses to Plain)
2004 (L. Murkowski wins)

Tom DeLay would prolly have a good chance of winning in Alaska.


Sean Parnell and Sarah Palin are the greatest things to happen to Alaska.

Man you need to get your facts straight.  "Murkowski just barely loses to Palin"...?

Murkowski came in third place in the primary, with just 19% of the vote, to Palin's 50%

JewCon is a lost cause my friend. 

Murkowski got creamed and rightfully so.

[Sewer]

Sean Parnell and Sarah Palin are the greatest things to happen to Alaska.

LIES!!