Who has the momentum?

[Nation]

Lieberman!  He has Joe-mentum!

about time somebody recognized the obvious

[Giant Saguaro]

Yeah, I don't know for sure if I follow the Joe-mentum comment here, I mean Joe was polling at something like 9%, you know, and Kerry was at 45% of whatever. But I don't think Bush is losing momentum, I think he's stopped Kerry's and now Bush can get it back. Or Kerry could get it back. Who knows.

[zorkpolitics]

Looking at the tracking polls, which since they poll the same way every day, should be good for trend analysis, it looks like Kerry has momentum, but  it is negative.  Bush is holding a fairly steady 48% while Kerry slowly spirals down.  (Bush's weekly Rasmussen average has been rock steady 48 since Sep 2).  Question is, will all the not-Bush leaners overcome their doubts in Kerry by Nov 2, or like the Winston-Salem Journal, decide neither candidate is worth a vote and stay home.

If the latter,  then there will indeed be voter suppression, just as the Democrats are now claiming, but it will be driven by their own candidate's weakness.

Interestingly, this is very similar to 2000.   Then the average vote for Bush in the 4 tracking polls was 47% on 20 of the last 28 days before the election. Gore averaged only 43% for 13 of the last 16 days.  But Gore gained 4 points over the last 3 days as the undecided and weak Democratic voters decided to vote for Gore (or was it the DUI charge?) leading to a tie on election day. 

So will it be déjà vu all overcome as Kerry closes the gap the last weekend?

[Mort from NewYawk]

It's not so much momentum that Bush has, as a firm grip on his own supporters.

Reuters says 92% of self-identified Republicans support Bush, while 81% of Democrats support Kerry.

Kerry's support was always softer than Bush's. He was nominated not so much for his positions, but that he was thought of as the most likely to beat Bush. The more he appears unlikely to win as we approach Election Day, the more of his potential supporters will just stay home.

The debates worked for Kerry, in that 2-4% who dislike Bush but had not yet followed the election decided they liked Kerry enough to say they would vote for him.

That brought him to 43-45%, and I believe that's where he will peak.

Kerry will fail to convince at least 48-49% of voters that he is the man to conduct this anomalous conflict which the nation as a whole knows is real but is having trouble coming to grips with.

The collective decision has been made - voters have seen Bush perform in crisis, they know who Kerry is, and they'll go with what they know.

[jacob_101]

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Just wait until Bush's social security plan gets out. People are not going to like that. Bush has some radical ideas.

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I'll bet this is related to CNN reporting today about a Bush comment on social security privitization.  Wolf Blitzer kept pushing it

Okay, I'm sure this will get some blood flowing but it is time for John Scary to start up.  No, I don't mean his policies but my democratic friends on this board (all 0 of them) all know the democratic scare book

   - For our African American's & Minorities
         Republicans will burn down black churches(1996), lynch you(2000)
         and steal your vote again(2004)
   - For our Senior Citizens
         Republicans will privitize social security and you will lose your life's
         work in a risky stock market scheme(1996, 2000, 2004)
   - For our Young Citizens
         Republicans will reinstate the draft(2004)
   - For our Disabled and sick
         Republicans will not get Aids cured (1980's-1990's).  By the way
         it was private industry that discovered AIDS medicine not federal
         Govt.
         Republicans will leave you disabled because of stem cell ban(
         Republicans were the only ones to federally fund).  Vote for me
        and you shall walk
   - For women
         You will be forced to have back alley abortions again( every
         election)

It's time for John Scary




        

Good post.  I agree!! 

Bush has the momentum right now.

[mddem2004]

Rove has even acknowledged that Bush will need a 4% lead going into election day to win. The reason he gave? The way the undecideds will break against Bush. With Kerry leading by large margins (according to Gallup) in newly registered voters, young voters, and independents; Kerry is poised to win this thing by 2%.

Tick, Tick, Tick, Tick......

[J. J.]

Rove has even acknowledged that Bush will need a 4% lead going into election day to win. The reason he gave? The way the undecideds will break against Bush. With Kerry leading by large margins (according to Gallup) in newly registered voters, young voters, and independents; Kerry is poised to win this thing by 2%.

Tick, Tick, Tick, Tick......

Well the current Gallup poll shows Bush with an 8 point lead.

Tock, Tock, Tock, Tock .....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My prediction was correct!

[TheCommentator]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

Just wait until Bush's social security plan gets out. People are not going to like that. Bush has some radical ideas.

Gee, do you really think it will come out after 4.5 years?

He has not passed anything yet. He has a January surprise.

Told you so.

[Rococo4]

I forgot about Shira and her stupid math trends, espcially about how Kerry was going to win FL because of Demographics.  right.

[Soup18]

Kerry! HAHA