1996: four-way

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Four-way without Perot

President Bill Clinton of Arkansas/Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee (Democratic)
Former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas/Former Secretary Jack Kemp of New York (Republican)
Former Governor Robert P. Casey of Pennsylvania/Former Representative Dave McCurdy of Oklahoma (Independent Democratic)
Pat Buchanan of Virginia/Governor Mike Foster of Louisiana (Independent Republican)

Discuss

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Casey really screws over Clinton, and gives Dole a 276-234-28 victory:

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Clinton wins

[TeePee4Prez]

the split vote would work in Clinton's favor

I'd even give Clinton a >30% Pennsylvania by the time 1996 rolled around, but would be tight with Casey on the split.  At this point, I'd give >40% to Clinton because the "Casey Democrats" are either dead or Republicans and the GOP base is more conservative.