State-by-state update
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Author Topic: State-by-state update  (Read 3974 times)
Gustaf
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« on: March 06, 2004, 09:55:10 AM »
For those who aren't aware, www.davidwissing.com has a great feature, up-dating EVs. It's based on recent polls and, where those are unavailable, the 2000 result. It currently gives Kerry a 294-244 lead. It gives no reflection of tossups, etc, so you have to keep that in mind though.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2004, 09:56:58 AM »
http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2004, 10:00:18 AM »

I believe that people can find their polls without a direct link. I believe that people should be given support, but not be treated like children. I believe in helping people to help themselves, not give them handouts. I have a dream...

OK, I'm done. Tongue
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2004, 10:33:53 AM »
isnt there another site that does this but uses a map?

This site only has polls for half the states and doesnt have polls for 10 (AR, CO, LA, MN, TN, OH, OR, WI, WV, WS)...of the 17 swing states that Bush/Cheney and moveon.org are currently running ads in so it assumes those states are all same as 2000

...I bet that both OH and WV would now be in the Kerry column, and WS might be in the Bush column
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Gustaf
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« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2004, 10:36:39 AM »
Quote from: California Dreamer on March 06, 2004, 10:33:53 AM
isnt there another site that does this but uses a map?

This site only has polls for half the states and doesnt have polls for 10 (AR, CO, LA, MN, TN, OH, OR, WI, WV, WS)...of the 17 swing states that Bush/Cheney and moveon.org are currently running ads in so it assumes those states are all same as 2000

...I bet that both OH and WV would now be in the Kerry column, and WS might be in the Bush column

I don't know if you're referring to www.dcpoliticalreport.com ?
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2004, 10:39:32 AM »

CNN showed a poll yesterday in Missouri that had Bush up 50-39.  I didn't see this on the site above.  I haven't seen any polling in most of the other swing states.
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2004, 10:39:42 AM »
no...there was a site that showed an updated EC map based on current polls.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2004, 10:43:57 AM »
Quote from: NickG on March 06, 2004, 10:39:32 AM

CNN showed a poll yesterday in Missouri that had Bush up 50-39.  I didn't see this on the site above.  I haven't seen any polling in most of the other swing states.

Sounds like bad news for Kerry, that does.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2004, 10:44:24 AM »

The David Wissing site doesn't seem to explain what he does if there are conflicting poll results.  Does he use the most recent?  The average?  The 2000 result?

For instance, is he currently assigning Florida to Bush or Kerry.  He only posts his EV totals, not which states they represent, unless I'm missing something.
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2004, 10:46:33 AM »
I notice there is a listing for 'polls' when you goto the 2004 tab on this site.

Is Dave planning on adding an updated map based on latest polls?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2004, 11:17:44 AM »
i likepolls just as much as any other political junky, but they are highly suspect this far out from the election.

in other words, they are entertaining to look at, but election night will look quite a bit different than early march.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2004, 01:05:35 PM »
Quote from: California Dreamer on March 06, 2004, 10:39:42 AM
no...there was a site that showed an updated EC map based on current polls.

I know what you mean, that was a good site on another thread, does anyone remember what it was?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2004, 04:44:20 PM »
Quote from: NickG on March 06, 2004, 10:44:24 AM

The David Wissing site doesn't seem to explain what he does if there are conflicting poll results.  Does he use the most recent?  The average?  The 2000 result?

For instance, is he currently assigning Florida to Bush or Kerry.  He only posts his EV totals, not which states they represent, unless I'm missing something.

He has both.
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zachman
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« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2004, 05:36:34 PM »
I've said it once and I'll say it again.  Don't focus on Missouri. It's part of the bible belt, and enormously pro-war.

Why would polling agencies take polls in Montan, Rhode Is;and, and South Dakota? Who invests in taking these polls?
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opebo
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« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2004, 04:39:23 AM »
Quote from: zachman on March 06, 2004, 05:36:34 PM
I've said it once and I'll say it again.  Don't focus on Missouri. It's part of the bible belt, and enormously pro-war.


You have a good understanding of Missouri!  In addition MO goes along economically more with the IN/IA/MN/KS/WS level of performance - all much better than IL/OH/MI/WV.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2004, 06:33:30 AM »
Quote from: zachman on March 06, 2004, 05:36:34 PM
Why would polling agencies take polls in Montan, Rhode Is;and, and South Dakota? Who invests in taking these polls?

Good question, but why complain? Smiley
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agcatter
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« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2004, 09:05:23 AM »
That Survey USA outfit is going to make a fortune polling in all these states over the next 240 days.  It's a gold mine for that outfit.  I'm holding my breath waiting to see if Bush is leading in Utah.  Can't wait for that poll.  Wonder if Kerry is leading in Massachusetts?  That is another poll I'm waiting for with great anticipation.

Seriously, I guess for political junkies like us polls are part of the fix we constantly need.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2004, 09:21:02 AM »
I prefer Mason-Dixon to Survey USA...
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agcatter
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« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2004, 12:01:23 PM »
Mason-Dixon is always reliable.  I've really been impressed however by Survey USA.  They really nailed the primaries.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #19 on: March 07, 2004, 12:05:27 PM »
Yeah... they have improved recently.
They did well with the KY-6 special election as well.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #20 on: March 07, 2004, 12:35:24 PM »
Quote from: agcat on March 07, 2004, 09:05:23 AM
That Survey USA outfit is going to make a fortune polling in all these states over the next 240 days.  It's a gold mine for that outfit.  I'm holding my breath waiting to see if Bush is leading in Utah.  Can't wait for that poll.  Wonder if Kerry is leading in Massachusetts?  That is another poll I'm waiting for with great anticipation.

Seriously, I guess for political junkies like us polls are part of the fix we constantly need.

All polls are welcome! Smiley Also, polls from strong states do have the benefit of showing us trends. If Bush was suddenly ahead by only 15 points in Utah, it would be a good sign for Kerry and so on.
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zachman
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« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2004, 12:41:31 PM »
These state-by-state polls seem to show that every state is at least somewhat close. The Kansas 8 point lead is a good example of this. The two polls taken in Iowa showing that Kerry or Bush were ahead by 8% in 1 poll, and the other was behind in the second poll.

Is Research 2000, a right leaning poll? They found NJ Kerry def. Bush 46-44.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2004, 12:44:47 PM »
Quote from: zachman on March 07, 2004, 12:41:31 PM
These state-by-state polls seem to show that every state is at least somewhat close. The Kansas 8 point lead is a good example of this. The two polls taken in Iowa showing that Kerry or Bush were ahead by 8% in 1 poll, and the other was behind in the second poll.

Is Research 2000, a right leaning poll? They found NJ Kerry def. Bush 46-44.

Latest poll has Bush nearly twenty points up in Kansas.
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angus
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« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2004, 12:45:45 PM »
Auntie Em, where's Toto?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #24 on: March 07, 2004, 12:46:59 PM »

Even I know that quote...are we supposed to quote anything that takes place in a state whenever it's mentioned? Smiley
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