Ireland Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty 2009 : Results Thread

[Harry Hayfield]

2007 Lisbon Treaty Referendum Results
Yes, I agree that Ireland should ratify the Lisbon Treaty 752,451 (46.60%)
No, I do not agree that Ireland should ratify the Lisbon Treaty 862,415 (53.40%)
NO majority of 109,964 (6.81%) therefore Ireland did NOT ratify the Lisbon Treaty
Turnout: 52.92%

Result Map

(Key: The lighter a constituency, the bigger the lead)

Extremes
Biggest YES Vote: Dun Laoghaire YES 63.46%
Biggest NO Vote: Dublin South West NO 65.05%

Targets
In order to gain a majority in favour of the Lisbon Treaty, the YES camp need a swing of 3.41%, that means turning the following NO constituencies into YES constituencies
1   Wicklow   -0.37%
2   Tipperary North   -0.40%
3   Kildare South   -3.02%
4   Dublin West   -4.17%
5   Galway East   -6.26%
6   Tipperary South   -6.42%
7   Longford, West Meath   -7.48%
8   Cork North West   -7.77%

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Can you explain the reason why the yes areas went yes, and no went no? I've no idea.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Can you explain the reason why the yes areas went yes, and no went no? I've no idea.

Very Basically: Very Strong Fianna Fail Political Machines (Laois-Offaly where our current dear leader resides, Clare, Dublin North Central all seem to have this in common. Though there may be more to that in DNC) + The Bourgeoise (South East Dublin + New Suburbs like large parts of Meath West and Kildare North - where I reside right now) = YES.

Everyone Else = No. Poorer and the more isolated suburbs having the strongest NO (which explains Dublin SW) along with the West Coast due to typical alienation from central authority and in certain places it seems anger over EU fishing quotas (pertinent especially in Donegal).

Btw Harry, Westmeath is a county in its own right so it's "Longford-Westmeath" not "Longford- West meath"[/pedant].

[Јas]

Btw Harry, Westmeath is a county in its own right so it's "Longford-Westmeath" not "Longford- West meath"[/pedant].

Indeed so - though of course, East Westmeath is actually part of the Meath West constituency, which should, obviously, be properly re-named (quasi-palindromically) Meath West-East Westmeath.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw Harry, Westmeath is a county in its own right so it's "Longford-Westmeath" not "Longford- West meath"[/pedant].

Indeed so - though of course, East Westmeath is actually part of the Meath West constituency, which should, obviously, be properly re-named (quasi-palindromically) Meath West-East Westmeath.

Like East Westphalia. Or West Bromwich East. Though better than both.

[Јas]

Turnout reported to be generally low; though up in central Dublin. - Irish Times

I can report that there was little evidence of any human activity in or around my polling station in rural mid-Monaghan this lunchtime. Not something that's really indicative of anything at all of course.

Obviously it's the evening voters which will determine how strong turnout will be. Prior polling indicated a likely high turnout and a safe Yes win. Yours truly forecast a lower turnout than last time and a fairly close result. It's hard to ignore the polling out there, but my sense is that the attitudes of people really haven't changed all that much, except for an increase in apathy towards the Treaty. The Yes side have done nothing but try and link this vote with Ireland's short-term economic future. It was a disturbing scaremongering effort - but I suspect it will be successful, just. (Not that the No side haven't engaged in ridiculous OTT scaremongering - but I suppose I pretty much take that to be given.)

We don't usually have exit polls for our referenda. Counting starts tomorrow morning at 9. I'd expect us to start getting vague reports shortly after and the first semi-reliable tallies from around 10.30a.m - 11a.m. If it's a reasonably safe win (as the polling suggests) we should have a good idea that that is the case by then. (Indeed looking over the thread from last time it was fairly clear that No had won from these early indications.)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Just Voted - Went YES this time. But wasn't very happy - stood there for two minutes wondering whether to vote YES or to scribble in something: I was stuck between "Gigantor the Giant Robot" or "The People's Popular Front of Judea" - but decided in the end to be traditional.

[k-onmmunist]

Here's to praying it gets rejected.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Fine Gael exit poll (take this is a slight pinch of salt imo) says YES - 52%, NO - 48%.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/1002/breaking1.htm

*Might* be good news for the NO camp then.

[afleitch]

If the poll is true say hello to President Blair

[Tetro Kornbluth]

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/1002/breaking1.htm

The Times has corrected itself - the FG Poll said 60-40 in favour of yes. Perhaps the earlier polls were right all along.

[You kip if you want to...]

Hopefully it passes. Results are announced tomorrow night right?

[Хahar 🤔]

Hoping it succeeds, if only because of Gully's signature.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hopefully it passes. Results are announced tomorrow night right?

Counting begins at 9AM tomorrow; the result should be clear very soon after that though the official results won't be announced until some time after that.

[Јas]

The level of turnout and that "exit poll" (pass the salt) would appear to be indicative of a fairly safe Yes result.

[Јas]

Very early reports indicate notable swings to Yes in Carlow-Kilkenny, Galway and Waterford.

[Јas]

With reports from Inner City Dublin and Tallaght indicating Yes in the lead (areas which No would need to take strongly to win) - it's looking very good for the Yes side.

[minionofmidas]

Here's hoping (against hope o/c) it's rejected. Nothing strengthening the council of ministers over other EU institutions, even if reforming it at the same time, can possibly be bearable news in the long run.
Yes, I know the no voters are mostly not people I want to associate with.

[Јas]

Very early reports from Dublin North indicate a No lead (went 51-49 last time).
Similarly, Dublin SC apparently leaning No as well (39-61 last time).

Dublin C and Dublin SE appear to be strong Yes returns.

[Јas]

Carlow-Kilkenny reported to be more than 2-1 in favour (50-50 last time).

[Јas]

Looks safe to call it for Yes now.

[Јas]

Some early tally reports...

Almost universally Yes...

Dublin C (15% of boxes open) 56-44
Dublin NE (5%) 56-44
Dublin NW (3%) 55-45

Galway W 63-37

Longford-Westmeath 65-35
Wicklow (10%) 66-34
Laois-Offaly (10%) 75-25
Meath W 50-50
Kildare N (33%) 75-25
Kildare S (31%) 65-35

Galway E 15 70-30
Cavan-Monaghan (25%) 60-40
Mayo (12%) 65-35
Sligo-Leitrim (10%) 60-40
Roscommon-Leitrim S (35%) 65-35
Donegal SW (32%) 60-40
Donegal NE 48-52

Cork NC 60-40
Cork SC 60-40
Limerick W 66-34
Waterford 70-30
Kerry S 66-34
Tipperary S 68-32

Dublin W (50%) 56-44
Dublin S 80-20
Dublin N 60-40
Dublin MW 60-40
Dublin SW 55-45

[Јas]

Richard Greene of Cóir has conceded that if tallies from around the country are accurate the treaty will be carried.

[Јas]

Joe Higgins MEP (Socialist-Dublin) on RTÉ Radio 1 said that if the treaty is passed it will make it 1-1 and that 'there should be a replay'.

[Јas]

Dún Laoighaire appears to be breaking 80% in favour.
(Read: The bourgeoisie approve! )