In CA- Democrats can pick up CA-3,CA-44,and CA-50 in 2010 or 2012. Redistricting.
In IL- Democrats can or will pick up IL-10-open seat, plus IL-6 and IL-13 due to redistricting.
In MN- MN-3 can be a potential Democratic pickup.
In NJ we can pick up NJ-2,and NJ-7
In NY- NY-23 Special Election. NY-26 will be a safe Republican District. to make NY-29,NY-24,NY-23,and NY-20 safer for the Democratic incumbents. NY-3 gets eliminated.
In OH- we can pick up OH-3- redistriciting. OH-12, and OH-19.
In PA we can or will pick up PA-6 and PA-15.
In WA- we can pick up WA-8
In WI can can pick up WI-1,and WI-6.
You really can't eliminate NY-3, population dictates the the eliminated district is going to come from upstate. Long Island has grown at a faster rate than the rest of the state, and in fact based off the 2008 estimates despite NY losing a seat in 2010, NY-1 will have to diminish in size somewhat. It will obviously change by 2010, but as of 2008 with a one loss seat in NY's delegation, the population per district will be 696,082, NY-1 has a population of 713,084.
Approx 17,000 people will need to be shifted between NY-1 to NY-2. You could perhaps play around with some of the areas to make NY-1 a little stronger for the Dems. NY-2 has a population (as of 2008) of 687,113, the additional 17,000 from NY-1 will push them 8,000 over the limit. All you really would need to do is shift 8,000 people from NY-2 to NY-3, but here is where they likely make NY-3 a bit more Democratic. Basically a reverse of the last redistricting. Take the Nassau County portion of NY-2 (which has a population of about 60,000 or so) and push it back into NY-3 as it was previously. This portion of Nassau is strongly Democratic, mostly upper-middle class with a fairly large Jewish population. You are then left with about 52,000 which NY-2 needs. Take some of the Republican leaning areas of the Suffolk portion of NY-3 and push that into NY-2. You could perhaps even play around and push some Democratic areas of the Suffolk portion of NY-2 into NY-3 as well. NY-2 is fairly Democratic and Steve Israel is completely safe so while you might not want to over do it, you have plenty of room to play around with, without endangering NY-2.
NY-3 has a current population of 652,004 with the net of 8,000 it would get from what NY-2 would need to shed it still would need 36,000. NY-3 was already made more Democratic by playing around with NY-2, now you get to play around with NY-4 and NY-5 which are both solid Dem districts as well. The first thing is to make up for that 36,000 that is needed. This is done easiest by moving the rest of Freeport from NY-4 to NY-3. Currently only the extreme southern (and most Republican) portions of Freeport are in NY-3, the rest of it is much more Democratic. You have the population for NY-3 settled, but you can play around a bit more, sending Republican areas such as Levittown back to NY-04 (which is where it was prior to the last redistricting round) in exchange for some more Democratic areas (Baldwin, Roosevelt). You can also do this by playing around in some areas in NY-05 perhaps shifting East Hills, and portions of Roslyn into NY-3 in exchange for some Republican areas (though you would need to be careful with what precincts you switch around because Gary Ackerman lives in Roslyn Heights).
Any population increases that NY-4 needs would likely come as a result of pushing it further north and taking areas of NY-5, which would make up its population needs by pushing further into Queens.
