How many Democratic Held US House Seats went Republican since 1994.
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Author Topic: How many Democratic Held US House Seats went Republican since 1994.  (Read 2072 times)
nkpatel1279
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« on: September 26, 2009, 02:31:13 PM »

US House Seats Democrats lost in 1994 but have not regained.
1)AZ-1 now AZ-6 (open Sam Coppersmith-D)- won by Matt Salmon-R in 1994- retired in 2000, now held by Jeff Flake-R.
2)CA-19 (Richard Lehman-D)-lost in 1994 to George Radanovich-R.
3)FL-1(open- Earl Hutto-D)- won by Joe Scarborough-R in 1994- resigned in 2001, now held by Jeff Miller-R.
4)FL-15(open- Jim Bacchus-D)- won by Dave Weldon-R in 1994- retired in 2008- now held by Bill Posey-R
5)GA-7 now GA-11 (Buddy Darden-D)- lost in 1994 to Bob Barr-R lost seat in redistricting, now held by Phil Gingrey-R.
6)GA-9 (Nathan Deal-D)- switched parties in 1995. running for Governor in 2010.
7)GA-10 (Don Johnson-D)- lost in 1994 to Charlie Norwood-R- died in 2007, now held by Paul Brouin-R.
8)IN-2 now IN-6 (open Phil Sharpe-D)- won by David McIntosh-R in 1994- ran for Governor in 2000, now held by Mike Pence-R.
9)IN-4 now IN-3 (Jill Long Thompson-D)- lost in 1994 to Mark Souder-R.
10)IA-4 now IA-5 (Neal Smith-D)- lost in 1994 to Greg Ganske-R- ran for US Senator in 2002. now held by Steve King-R.
11)KS-2(open Jim Slattery-D)-won by Sam Brownback-R in 1994- ran for US Senate in 1996- won by Jim Ryun-R lost in 2006 to Nancy Boyda-D- lost in 2008 to Lynn Jenkins-R.
12)KS-4 (Dan Glickman-D)- lost in 1994 to Todd Tiahrt-R- running for US Senate.
13)KY-1 (Tom Barlow-D)- lost in 1994  to Ed Whitfield-R.
14)KY-2 (OPEN-William Natcher-D)- won by Ron Lewis-R in 1994- retired in 2008- now held by Brett Guthrie-R.
15)LA-7(Jimmy Hayes-D)- switched parties in 1995- ran for US Senate in 1996- won by Chrs John-D -ran for US Senate in 2004- now held by Charles Boustanty-R.
16)MI-8 (OPEN-Carr-D)- won by Dick Chrysler-R in 1994- lost to Debbie Stabenow-D in 1996- ran for US Senate in 2000- won by Mike Rogers-R .
17)NE-2 (Bill Hoagland-D)- lost to Jon Christensen-R in 1994- ran for Governor in 1998- now held by Lee Terry-R.
18)NJ-2 (OPEN-Bill Hughes-D)-won by Frank LoBiondo-R in 1994.
19)NC-3 (Martin Lancaster-D) lost to Walter Jones-R in 1994.
20)NC-5 (OPEN-Stephen Neal-D)-won by Richard Burr-R in 1994- ran for US Senate in 2004. now held by Virginia Foxx.
21)OH-19 now OH-14 (Eric Fingerhut-D)-lost to Steve LaTourrette-R in 1994.
22)OK-4 (OPEN-David McCurdy-D)-won by JC Watts-R in 1994- retired in 2002- now held by Tom Cole-R.
23)OK-6 now OK-3 (OPEN Glenn English-D)- won by Frank Lucas-R in 1994.
24)SC-3 (OPEN-Butler Derrick-D)- won by Lindsey Graham-R in 1994- ran for US Senate in 2002. now held by Gresham Barrett-R. running for US Senate.
25)TN-3 (OPEN-Marilyn Lloyd-D)- won by Zack Wamp-R in 1994- running for Governor.
26)TX-9 now TX-2 (Jack Brooks-D)- lost to Steve Stockman-R in 1994- lost to Nick Lampson-D in 1996- lost in 2004 to Ted Poe-R.  
27)TX-13 (Bill Sarapalius-D)- lost to Mac Thornberry-R in 1994.
28)TX-14(Greg Laughlin-D) switched parties-in 1995. lost in Primary to Ron Paul-R in 1996.
29)WA-4 (Jay Inslee-D)- lost to Doc Hastings-R in 1994.
30)WA-5(Tom Foley-D)- lost to George Nethercutt-R in 1994- ran for US Senate in 2004. now held by Cathy McMorris Rogers-R.
31)WI-1(Peter Barca-D)-lost to Mark Neuman-R in 1994- ran for US Senate in 1998- now held by Paul Ryan-R.
32)AL-3(OPEN Glen Browder-D)- won by Bob Riley-R in 1996- ran for Governor in 2002. now held by Mike Rogers-R.
33)AL-4(OPEN Tom Bevill-D)- won by Roger Aderholt-R in 1996.
34)IL-20 now IL-19 (OPEN Richard Durbin-D)- won by John Schimkus-R in 1996.
35)LA-4 now LA-5 (OPEN Cleo Field-D)- won by John Cooksey-R in 1996- ran for US Senator in 2002- won by Rodney Alexander-D- switched parties in 2004.
36)MS-3 (OPEN-Sonny Montgomery-D)-won by Chip Pickering-R in 1996- retired in 2008- now held by Greg Harper-R.
37)MO-9 (Harold Volkmer-D)-won by Kenny Hulshof-R in 1996- ran for Governor in 2008- now held by Blaine Luetkemeyer-R.
38)MT-AL(OPEN-Pat Williams-D)-won by Rick Hill-R in 1996- retired in 2000- now held by Denny Rehberg-R.
39)TX-5 now TX-32 (OPEN-John Bryant-D)- won by Pete Sessions-R in 1996.
40)TX-12 (OPEN Pete Geren-D)-won by Kay Granger-R in 1996.
41)UT-3 (Bill Orton-D)-lost to Chris Cannon-R in 1996- lost in primary in 2008- now held by Jason Chaffetz-R.
42)CA-3 (OPEN-Vic Fazio-D)- won by Doug Ose-R in 1998- retired in 2004- now held by Dan Lungren-R.
43)PA-15 (OPEN-Paul McHale-D)- won by Pat Toomey-R in 1998- ran for US Senate in 2004- now held by Charlie Dent-R.
44)MN-2 now MN-6 (David Minge-D)-lost to Mark Kennedy-R in 2000. ran for US Senate in 2006- now held by Michelle Bachman-R.
45)MO-6 (OPEN-Pat Danner-R)- won by Sam Graves-R in 2000.
46)WV-2 (OPEN-Bob Wise-R)-won by Shelly Moore Capito-R in 2000.  
47)FL-5 (Karen Thurman-D)- lost to Virginia Brown Waite-R in 2002.
48)MI-5 now MI-10 (OPEN- Jim Barcia-D)- won by Candace Miller-R in 2002.
49)MI-13 now MI-11 (Lynn Rivers-D)- Rivers-D ran in safe Democratic District MI-15 against John Dingell-D lost in Democratic Primary- Thad McCotter-R won MI-11.
50)MN-6 now MN-2 (Bill Luther-D)- lost to John Kline-R in 2002.
51)OH-3 (OPEN Tony Hall-D)- won by Mike Turner-R in 2002.
52)PA-20 now PA-18 (Frank Mascara-D)- ran in safe Democratic District PA-12 against Jack Murtha-D lost in Democratic primary- Tim Murphy-R won PA-18.
53)VA-4(OPEN-Norm Sisisky-D)- won by Randy Forbes-R in 2001 Special Election.
54)TX-1 (Max Sandlin-D)- lost to Louie Gohmert-R in 2004.
55)TX-2 now TX-10 (OPEN-Jim Turner-D)- The old TX-2 was eliminated- in lieu of creation of new TX-10 now held by Mike McCaul-R.
56)TX-17 now TX-11 (Charlie Stenholm-D)- ran in new TX-19 against Randy Neaugebaur-R lost. Mike Conway-R won newly created TX-11.
57)TX-24 (Martin Frost-D)- ran for the new TX-32 againt Pete Sessions-R. lost. Kenny Marchant-R won newly created TX-24.
1)ME-2(OPEN-Olympia Snowe-R)- won by John Baldacci-D in 1994- ran for Governor in 2002. now held by Mike Michaud-D.
2)PA-18 now PA-14 (OPEN-Rick Santorum-R)- won by Mike Doyle-D in 1994- redistricted to new PA-14.
3)RI-1 (OPEN-Ron Machtley-R)- won by Patrick Kennedy-D in 1994.
4,5,6)- MA-3(Peter Blute-R/Jim McGovern-D),MA-6 (Peter Torkedilson-R/John Tierney-D),and OH-10 (Martin Hoke-R/Dennis Kucinich-D)- were Democratic Held Districts before 1992- Democratic Incumbents lost due to scandals. 1994 was a GOP year. DEM's won back those districts in 1996.
7,8,9)- CA-10,CA-22 now CA-23, CA-46 now CA-47. CA-10 was a newly created swing District won by Bill Baker-R in 1992- lost to Ellen Tauscher-D in 1996- now a Safe DEM Seat. CA-22/23- was a moderate Republican District in the 1990's(Arianna's Ex occupied that District). Republican Incumbent Andrea Streasand-R aka Michelle Bachmann was a nutcase- lost in 1996 to Walter Capps- who died in 1997-succeed by his wife Lois Capps. CA-46/47- (Bob Dornan-R) lost to Lorretta Sanchez had to do with change in demographics.
10)IA-3 (OPEN-Jim Ross Lightfoot-R)- won by Leonard Boswell-D in 1996.
11)NY-4 (Dan Frisa-R)-lost to Caroline McCarthy-D in 1996.
12)WI-3(OPEN-Steve Gunderson-R)- won by Ron Kind-D in 1996.
13)WI-8 (OPEN- Toby Roth-R)-won by Jay Johnson-D in 1996- lost in 1998 to Mark Green-R ran for Governor in 2006- now held by Steve Kagan-D..
14)KS-3 (Vince Snowbarger-R)- lost to Dennis Moore-D in 1998.
15)NJ-12 (Mike Pappas-R)-lost to Rush Holt-D in 1998.
16)WI-2 (OPEN-Scott Klug-R)-won by Tammy Baldwin-D in 1998.
17)AR-4(Jay Dickey-R) lost to Mike Ross in 2000. Democratic held before 1992-
18)CA-27 now CA-29 (Jim Rogan-R)-lost to Adam Schiff-D in 2000.
19)NY-2 (OPEN-Rick Lazio-R)- won by Steve Isreal-D in 2000. Democratic held before 1992.
20) CA-38 now CA-39(OPEN-Steve Horn-R) now held by Linda Sanchez-D.
21) MD-2(OPEN-Bob Ehrlich-R)-now held by Dutch Ruppersberger-D.
22) MD-8 (Connie Morrella-R)-lost to Chris Van Hollen-D in 2002
23)CO-3(OPEN-Scott McInnis-R)-won by John Salazar-D in 2004.
24)IL-8(Phil Crane-R)- lost to Melissa Bean-D in 2004.
25) NY-27(OPEN-Jack Quinn-R)- won by Brian Higgins-D in 2004.
2006/2008.
26)AL-2(Terry Everett-R/Bobby Bright-D)
27)AZ-8(Jim Kolbe-R/Gabby Giffords-D).
28)CA-11(Richard Pombo-R/Jerry McNerney-D).
29)CO-4(Marilyn Musgrave-R/Betsey Markey-D).
30)CT-4 (Chris Shays-R/Jim Himes-D)
31)CT-5 (Nancy Johnson-R/Chris Murphy-D)
32)FL-8 (Ric Keller-R/Alan Grayson-D)
33)FL-22 (Clay Shaw-R/Ron Klien-D)
34)IL-14(Dennis Hastert-R/Bill Foster-D)
35)IA-1(Jim Nussle-R/Bruce Braley-D)
36)IA-2 (Jim Leach-R/Dave Loesback-D)
37)MD-1 (Wayne Gilchrist-R/Frank Kravotil-D)
38)MI-7 (Tim Walberg-R/Mark Schauer-D)
39)MI-9 (Joseph Knollenberg-R/Gary Peters-D)
40)NH-1 (Jeb Bradley-R/Carol Shea Porter-D)
41)NJ-3 (Jim Saxton-R/John Adler-D)
42)NM-1 (Heather Wilson-R/Martin Heinrich-D)
43)NM-2 (Steve Pearce-R/Harry Teague-D)
44)NY-13 (Vito Fossella-R/Mike McMahon-D)
45)NY-19 (Sue Kelly-R/John Hall-D)
46)NY-20 (John Sweeney-R/Kirsten Gillibrand/Scott Murphy-D)
47)NY-24 (Sherry Boehlert-R/Mike Arcuri-D)
48)NY-25 (Jim Walsh-R/Dan Maffei-D)
49)NY-29 (Randy Kuhl-R/Eric Massa-D)
50)NC-11 (Charles Taylor-R/Heath Schuler-D)
51)OH-15 (Deborah Pryce-R/Mary Jo Kilroy-D)
52)OH- 16 (Ralph Regula-R/John Boccieri-D)
53)PA-3 (Phil English-R/Kathy Dahlkemper-D)
54)PA-7 (Curt Weldon-R/Joe Sestak-D) running for US Senate.
55)PA-8 (Mike Fitzpatrick-R/Patrick Murphy-D)
56)PA-10 (Don Sherwood-R/Chris Carney-D)
57)TX-23 (Henry Bonilla-R/Ciro Rodriguez-D)
Democratic House Majority is similar to pre 1994 .
In 2010.
LA-2 and LA-3 cancel each other out. DE-AL,IL-10,and PA-6 will cancel out losses in AL-2,AL-5,and ID-1and possibly MD-1.. Democrats can also target vulnerable Republican House incumbents in CA to offset any other potential losses.  CA-3(Lungren-R),CA-44(Calvert-R),and CA-50(Bilbray-R)- to offset loss in FL-8,OH-15,and VA-2.
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phk
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2009, 02:42:51 PM »

Fascinating that CA-19 was once a D-district. The D's would need like $10 million per year to make a serious bid.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2009, 02:51:19 PM »

In 1994- Democrats lost AZ,ME,MI,OH,OK,PA,and both TN seats. plus Shelby(AL) switched parties.  AZ,ME,OK,and both TN seats have remained in the Republican collumn ever since.
Democrats picked up MI in 2000, OH in 2006, PA in 2006.
1995- Ben Campbell-CO switched parties- Democrats won back CO in 2004.
1996- Democrats lost AL,AR,and NE but picked up OR and SD. AL and NE remained in Republican collumn. Democrats won back AR in 2002.
1998- Democrats lost IL,KY,and OH but picked up IN,NY,and NC. Democrats won back IL in 2004 but lost NC in 2004. Democrats can win back OH,KY,and NC in 2010.
2000- Democrats lost NV,and VA. Democrats won back VA in 2006. and can win NV in 2012 due to Ensign scandals. Democrats picked up DE,FL,MN,MO,and WA.
2002- Democrats lost GA,MN,and MO- Democrats won back MN in 2008 and MO in 2006 but picked up AR.
2004- Democrats lost FL,LA,NC,SC,and SD.
2006- Democrats won back PA and OH which they lost in 1994, RI, MO which they lost in 2002,MT,and VA which they lost in 2000.
2008- Democrats picked up VA,NM,CO,NH,NC,OR,AK,and MN which they lost in 2002.
2009 Specter-PA switched parties.

D to R seats since 1994 are.
1)AL
2)AL
3)AZ
4)FL
5)KY
6)LA
7)ME
8)OK
9)TN
10)TN

R to D seats since 1994 are.
1)CO
2)DE
3)FL
4)IN
5)MN
6)MO
7)MT
8)NH
9)NM
10)NY
11)NC
12)OR
13)OR
14)PA
15)RI
16)WA

Democrats have 6 more seat then in pre 1994.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2009, 02:58:56 PM »

Fascinating that CA-19 was once a D-district. The D's would need like $10 million per year to make a serious bid.

CA-19 was a Democratic held District but due to 1992 Redistricting. Democratic portions such as areas of Stockton were moved to the newly created CA-10/CA-11-both were swing districts. and Hispanic portions were moved to CA-20 to make Cal Dooley safe.  Richard Lehman-D got Republican areas near the Nevada border.- He narrowly won re-election in 1992 but lost in 1994 GOP revolution by a landslide. Democrats are unlikely to target CA-19. 
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2009, 03:09:53 PM »

In CA- Democrats can pick up CA-3,CA-44,and CA-50 in 2010 or 2012. Redistricting.
In IL- Democrats can or will pick up IL-10-open seat, plus IL-6 and IL-13 due to redistricting.
In MN- MN-3 can be a potential Democratic pickup.
In NJ we can pick up NJ-2,and NJ-7
In NY- NY-23 Special Election. NY-26 will be a safe Republican District. to make NY-29,NY-24,NY-23,and NY-20 safer for the Democratic incumbents. NY-3 gets eliminated.
In OH- we can pick up OH-3- redistriciting. OH-12, and OH-19.
In PA we can or will pick up PA-6 and PA-15.
In WA- we can pick up WA-8
In WI can can pick up WI-1,and WI-6.
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Smash255
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2009, 11:34:10 PM »

Just to add to one of the ones the Dems lost in 94 but have gained back.  NY-01

Michael Forbes knocked off George Hochbrueckner in 1994, Forbes later switched to the Dems in 1999, he then lost in the Democratic Primary in 2000 to Regina Seltzer.  Republican Felix Grucci defeated Seltzer in the Primary, but only last one term as he was defeated by Democrat Tim Bishop in 2002, Bishop holds the seat today.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2009, 12:13:03 AM »

Fascinating that CA-19 was once a D-district. The D's would need like $10 million per year to make a serious bid.

The district was basically what is now CA-20 pre-1992 redistricting.   Redistricting cost Democrats that seat. 
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2009, 11:19:00 AM »

Just to add to one of the ones the Dems lost in 94 but have gained back.  NY-01

Michael Forbes knocked off George Hochbrueckner in 1994, Forbes later switched to the Dems in 1999, he then lost in the Democratic Primary in 2000 to Regina Seltzer.  Republican Felix Grucci defeated Seltzer in the Primary, but only last one term as he was defeated by Democrat Tim Bishop in 2002, Bishop holds the seat today.

2002 election cycle was based on redistricting. NY-1 (Grucci-R)'s loss against Bishop had nothing to do with redistricting.

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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2009, 01:47:18 PM »

Just to add to one of the ones the Dems lost in 94 but have gained back.  NY-01

Michael Forbes knocked off George Hochbrueckner in 1994, Forbes later switched to the Dems in 1999, he then lost in the Democratic Primary in 2000 to Regina Seltzer.  Republican Felix Grucci defeated Seltzer in the Primary, but only last one term as he was defeated by Democrat Tim Bishop in 2002, Bishop holds the seat today.

We should also look at the seats Democrats gained back before 2002 census- and which seats we gained back after 2002 census.
1996-Democrats won back
IL-5- (Dan Rostenkowski-D) lost in 1994 to Michael Patrick Flanagan(R) due to a scandal. Flanagan(R) lost badly in 1996 to Rod Blagojevich-D. Blagojevich(D) elected Governor in 2002- won by Rahm Emanual-D- now WH Chief of Staff- now held by Mike Quigley(D).
ME-1 (OPEN-Tom Andrews-D)- won by Jim Longley(R). Longley (R) lost in 1996 to Tom Allen(D). Allen gave up seat in 2008 to run for US Senate- now held by Chellie Pingree(D).
NJ-8 (Herb Klien-D) lost in 1994 to Bill Martini(R). Martini(R) lost in 1996 to Bill Pascrell(D).
NC-2 (OPEN-Tim Valentine-D)- won by David Funderburk-R in 1994. Funderburk-R lost in 1996 to Bobby Etheridge(D) due to an drunk driving controversy.
NC-4 (David Price-D)- lost in 1994 to Fred Heineman-R but won the seat back in 1996 rematch.
OH-6 (Ted Strickland-D)- lost in 1994 to Frank Cremeans-R but won seat back in 1996 rematch. Strickland was elected Governor in 2006- now held by Charlie Wilson-D.
OR-5 (OPEN-Mike Kopetsi-D)- won by Jim Bunn-R in 1994- lost in 1996 to Darlene Hooley(D)-retired in 2008- won by Kurt Schrader-D.
WA-9 (Mike Kriedler-D)- lost in 1994 to Randy Tate(R)-lost in 1996 to Adam Smith(D).
1998
CA-1 (Dan Hamburg-D)-lost in 1994 to Frank Riggs(R)- Riggs narrowly won re-election in 1996. In 1998- Riggs gave up seat to run for US Senate- won by Mike Thompson-D.
NV-1 (James Bilbary-D)- lost in 1994 to John Ensign(R)- Ensign narrowly won re-election in 1996- Ensign gave up seat in 1998 to run for US Senate- won by Shelly Berkley-D.
PA-13(Marjorie Margolis Mezinsky-D)- lost in 1994 to Jon Fox(R)- Fox narrowly won re-election in 1996- lost in 1998 to Joe Hoefell(D)- Hoefell(D) held on to PA-13 until 2004- when he ran for US Senate- now held by Allyson Schwartz(D).
WA-1 (Maria Cantwell-D)- lost in 1994 to Rick White-R- White was narrowly elected in 1996- lost in 1998 to Jay Inslee-D who represented Republican leaning WA-4 before losing in 1994.
WA-3 (Jolene Unseold-D)- lost in 1994 to Linda Smith-R)- Smith was narrowly elected in 1996- Gave up seat in 1998 to run for US Senate. won by Brian Baird(D).
2000
CA-15 (OPEN Norm Mineta-D)- won by Tom Campbell-R in 1995 Special Election. Cambell-R was re-elected in 1996 and 1998. In 2000 Campbell-R gave up seat to run for US Senate- won by Mike Honda-D.
CA-36(Jane Harman-D)- gave up seat in 1998 to run for Governor- won by Steve Kuykendell-R. After losing in the Democratic primary for Governor- Harman-D ran for her old US House Seat against Kuykendell and narrowly won. CA-36 became a safe Democratic District.
CA-49 now CA-53 (Lynn Schenk-D)- lost in 1994 to Brian Bilbrary-R. Bilbray-R was narrowly re-elected in 1996 and 1998- Lost in 2000 to Susan Davis-D. Bibray-R now holds Duke Cunningham's old CA-50 seat since 2006.
OK-2 (OPEN Mike Synar-D)- won by Tom Coburn-R- retired in 2000- due to self imposed term-limits- won by Brad Carson-D. gave up seat in 2004 to run for US Senate- now held by Dan Boren-D.
UT-2 (Karan Shepard-D)-lost in 1994- to Enid Greene Waldhotz-R. Greene-R retired in 1996 due to a scandal involving her ex husband. Merrill Cook-R won in 1996- and re-elected in 1998. Cook turned out to be a nutjob- he lost in 2000 primary- It is now held by Jim Matheson-D.
WA-2 (OPEN-Al Swift-D)- won by Jack  Metcalf in 1994- re-elected in 1996 and 1998- retired in 2000 due to term limits- won by Rick Larsen.(D).
2002-
GA-8 (OPEN-Roy Rowland-D)- won by Saxby Chambiss-R in 1994- Redistricting made GA-8 more Democratic- Chambiss-R was placed in same District as Jack Kingston-R. Chambliss ran for US Senate instead. Jim Marshall-D won GA-8 in 2002.
TN-4 (OPEN-Jim Cooper-D)- won by Van Hilleary-R in 1994- Hilleary-was re-elected in 1996,1998,and 2000- gave up seat to run for Governor in 2002. now held by Lincoln Davis.
NY-1.
2004-
KY-6 (OPEN-Scotty Baesler-D)- won by Ernie Fletcher-R in 1998- re-elected in 2000 and 2002. elected Governor in 2003- won by Ben Chandler-D in 2004 Special Election. Chandler-D currently holds this seat.
LA-3 (Billy Tauzin-D)-switched parties in 1995- retired in 2004 now held by Charlie Melancon-D. Melancon-D is running for US Senate in 2010- seat will go back Republican. eliminated in 2012.
SD-AL (OPEN-Tim Johnson-D)- won by John Thune-R in 1996- Thune gave up seat in 2002 to run for US Senate- won by Bill Janklow-R resigned due to deadly car accident- won by Stephanie Herseth-D in 2004 Special Election.
2006 Democratic Wave.
AZ-6 now AZ-5 (Karan English-D)-lost in 1994 to JD Hayworth-R. Hayworth-R lost in 2006 to Harry Mitchell-D.
CT-2 (Sam Gedjenson-D)- lost in 2000 to Rob Simmons-R. Simmons-R lost in 2006 to Joel Courtney-D.
IN-2 (OPEN-Tim Roemer-D)- won by Chris Chocola-R in 2002- lost in 2006 to Joe Donnelly-D.
IN-8 (Frank McCloskey-D)- lost in 1994 to John Hostettler-R. Hostettler-R lost in a landslide to Brad Ellsworth-D in 2006.
IN-9 (Baron Hill-D)-lost in 2004 to Mike Sodrel-R but won it back in 2006 rematch. re-elected in 2008 rematch by a landslide margin.
KY-3 (Mike Ward-D)- lost in 1996 to Anne Northup-R. re-elected in 1998,2000,2002,and 2004. lost in 2006 to John Yarmuth. Northup lost in 2008 rematch.
MN-1 (OPEN-Tim Penny-D)- won by Gil Gutkneckt-R in 1994- lost in 2006 to Tim Walz-D.
NH-2 (Dick Swett-D)- lost in 1994 to Charlie Bass-R -lost in 2006 to Paul Hodes-D. Hodes-D is currently running for US Senate- likely Democratic retention.
OH-18 (OPEN-Doug Applegate-D)- won by Bob Ney-R in 1994- resigned in 2006 due to Abramoff Scandal. now held by Zack Space-D.
PA-4 (OPEN-Ron Klink-D)- won by Melissa Hart-R in 2000. Hart lost in 2006 to Jason Altmire-D.
WI-8 - was held by Republican Toby Roth from 1978-1996- Democrat Jay Johnson won in 1996 but lost re-election to Mark Green-R in 1998. Green gave up seat in 2006 to run for Governor. now held by Steve Kagen-D.
2008
ID-1 (Larry LoRocco-D)- lost in 1994 to Helen Chenoweth-R. Chenoweth-R retired in 2000- won by Butch Otter-R. Otter-R gave up seat in 2006 to run for Governor. Bill Sali-R won in 2006. lost in 2008 to Walt Minnick-D. ID-1 is likely to go back Republican-assuming Sali-R is not GOP nominee.
IL-11 (OPEN-George Sangimeister-D)- won by Jerry Weller-R in 1994- retired in 2008- won by Debbie Halverson-D.
MS-1 (OPEN-Jamie Whitten-D)- won by Roger Wicker-R in 1994- appointed US Senator in 2008- won by Travis Childers-D in 2008 Special election.
NC-8 (OPEN-Bill Hefner-D)- won by Robin Hayes-R in 1998- lost in 2008 to Larry Kissell-D
OH-1 (David Mann-D)- lost in 1994 to Steve Chabot-R- Chabot-R lost in 2008 to Steve Dreihaus-D.
VA-2 (OPEN-Owen Pickett-D)- won by Ed Schrock-R in 2000- retired in 2004 due to sex scandal. won by Thelma Drake-R. lost in 2008 to Glenn Nye-D.
VA-5 (Virgil Goode-D) switched parties in 2000-lost re-election as Republican to Tom Perriello-D in 2008.
VA- 11 (Leslie Byrne-D)- lost in 1994 to Tom Davis-R. retired in 2008- won by Gerry Connolly-D.
 
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Smash255
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2009, 12:45:51 AM »

In CA- Democrats can pick up CA-3,CA-44,and CA-50 in 2010 or 2012. Redistricting.
In IL- Democrats can or will pick up IL-10-open seat, plus IL-6 and IL-13 due to redistricting.
In MN- MN-3 can be a potential Democratic pickup.
In NJ we can pick up NJ-2,and NJ-7
In NY- NY-23 Special Election. NY-26 will be a safe Republican District. to make NY-29,NY-24,NY-23,and NY-20 safer for the Democratic incumbents. NY-3 gets eliminated.
In OH- we can pick up OH-3- redistriciting. OH-12, and OH-19.
In PA we can or will pick up PA-6 and PA-15.
In WA- we can pick up WA-8
In WI can can pick up WI-1,and WI-6.


You really can't eliminate NY-3, population dictates the the eliminated district is going to come from upstate.   Long Island has grown at a faster rate than the rest of the state, and in fact based off the 2008 estimates despite NY losing a seat in 2010, NY-1 will have to diminish in size somewhat.  It will obviously change by 2010, but as of 2008 with a one loss seat in NY's delegation, the population per district will be 696,082, NY-1 has a population of 713,084.

Approx 17,000 people will need to be shifted between NY-1 to NY-2.  You could perhaps play around with some of the areas to make NY-1 a little stronger for the Dems.   NY-2 has a population (as of 2008) of 687,113, the additional 17,000 from NY-1 will push them 8,000 over the limit.   All you really would need to do is shift 8,000 people from NY-2 to NY-3, but here is where they likely make NY-3 a bit more Democratic.  Basically a reverse of the last redistricting.    Take the Nassau County portion of NY-2 (which has a population of about 60,000 or so) and push it back into NY-3 as it was previously.   This portion of Nassau is strongly Democratic, mostly upper-middle class with a fairly large Jewish population.  You are then left with about 52,000 which NY-2 needs.  Take some of the Republican leaning areas of the Suffolk portion of NY-3 and push that into NY-2.  You could perhaps even play around and push some Democratic areas of the Suffolk portion of NY-2 into NY-3 as well.  NY-2 is fairly Democratic and Steve Israel is completely safe so while you might not want to over do it, you have plenty of room to play around with, without endangering NY-2.

NY-3 has a current population of 652,004 with the net of 8,000 it would get from what NY-2 would need to shed it still would need 36,000.  NY-3 was already made more Democratic by playing around with NY-2, now you get to play around with NY-4 and NY-5 which are both solid Dem districts as well.  The first thing is to make up for that 36,000 that is needed.  This is done easiest by moving the rest of Freeport from NY-4 to NY-3.  Currently only the extreme southern (and most Republican) portions of Freeport are in NY-3, the rest of it is much more Democratic.  You have the population for NY-3 settled, but you can play around a bit more, sending Republican areas such as Levittown back to NY-04 (which is where it was prior to the last redistricting round) in exchange for some more Democratic areas (Baldwin, Roosevelt).  You can also do this by playing around in some areas in NY-05 perhaps shifting East Hills, and portions of Roslyn into NY-3 in exchange for some Republican areas (though you would need to be careful with what precincts you switch around because Gary Ackerman lives in Roslyn Heights).

Any population increases that NY-4 needs would likely come as a result of pushing it further north and taking areas of NY-5, which would make up its population needs by pushing further into Queens.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2009, 09:14:44 AM »

Regarding NY-3 (King-R) district. We can eliminate NY-3 and create a new NY-3 similar to Robert Mrazek's NY-3 District pre 1992 lines- which will be represented by Gary Ackerman-D. NY-3 will be Northshore Nassau County. NY-2(Isreal-D) will absorb- the Suffolk County portion of the old NY-3. and NY-4 (McCarthy-D) will absorb the South Shore Nassau County portion of the old NY- 3.  NY-6 (Meeks-D) takes Southern portions of Nassau County. We create a new District consisting of Queens portion of the old 5th and NY-6.  King-R will have to run against either McCarthy-D or Isreal in the general election.

regarding upstate NY. We have to wait to see who wins NY-23 in the special election. That will mean Chris Lee- NY-26 will get eliminated. forcing him to run against NY-27 (Brian Higgins-D).
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