Redistricting Wales

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've been working on this, on and off, for ages now. And it's finished - a set of redistricting units (each to be called a "Cantref" out of random nostalgia, lol) for Wales. They're based, pretty loosely in some cases, on the pre-1974 local government boundaries, which tended to reflect community ties surprisingly well, for the most part. Names aren't always the same though. And when I've felt the need to create entirely new districts, I've usually fallen back on the old trick of naming after a random geographical feature (Sylen, for example). Anyway.



More stuff soon.

[afleitch]

Rejoice

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Neat

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

How many constituencies is that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How many constituencies is that?

If these were constituencies than that map would be the most hilarious anti-urban malaportionment-gerrymander ever (electorate of Cardiff cantref: 183,579. Electorate of Lampeter cantref: 1,608). But really they're just intended as fantasy re-districting building blocks, to replace the use of local authodrities and the laughable "preserved counties". Wales has some ghastly constituencies because the current method of boundary drawing is not suited for Welsh population patterns and community ties. Not even slightly.

[Verily]

Do you have population (or electorate) estimates for each of the cantrefs?

[afleitch]

Do you have population (or electorate) estimates for each of the cantrefs?

I was going to ask the same thing. Visually I can see where to create 70,000 sized constituencies in Wales (Like Ceredigion running down the north Pembroke coast etc) in the event Wales gets a full parliament.

I did something like this for Scotland a while back (though without detaching smaller communities from their rural hinterland) to try and come up with a new local govt structure ( )

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you have population (or electorate) estimates for each of the cantrefs?

Yes:

Cardiff City: 183,579
Cardiff Outer: 52,924

Barry: 33,927
Cowbridge: 19,681
Dinas Powys: 17,910
Penarth: 17,129

Ceiriog & Chirk: 5,012
Maelor: 4,813
Wrexham: 30,846
Wrexham Rural: 55,901

Buckley: 11,491
Connah’s Quay: 12,293
Flint: 12,716
Hawarden: 37,859
Holywell: 6,678
Holywell Rural: 26,033
Mold: 7,538

Corwen: 2,563
Denbigh: 6,650
Llangollen: 2,956
Prestatyn: 13,275
Rhuddlan & St Asaph: 10,894          
Rhyl: 17,258
Ruthin: 12,776

Llanfyllin: 10,116
Llanidloes: 11,101
Newtown: 8,092
Machynlleth: 4,132
Montgomery & Forden: 8,493
Welshpool: 4,721

Knighton & Presteign: 6,457
Llandrindod Wells: 4,073
Radnor: 4,809
Rhayader: 4,647

Brecon: 5,805
Brecon Rural: 5,683
Builth: 4,348
Crickhowell: 4,788
Hay: 4,700
Ystradgynlais: 8,187

Abergele: 15,698
Aled: 4,935
Colwyn Bay: 23,130
Conwy: 11,497
Hiraethog: 4,736
Llandudno: 16,001
Llanfairfechan: 2,811
Llanrwst: 2,421
Nant Conwy: 3,637
Penmaenmawr: 3,276

Bangor: 10,157
Bethesda: 3,327
Caernarfon: 7,292
Gwyrfai: 18,476
Llŷn: 15,819
Ogwen: 4,520
Porthmadog & Criccieth: 5,478

Bala: 3,508
Deudraeth: 5,573
Dolgellau & Barmouth: 9,992
Ffestiniog: 3,833
Tywyn: 3,846

Aberaeron: 12,001
Aberystwyth: 7,121
Aberystwyth Rural: 13,669
Cardigan: 3,127
Lampeter: 1,608
Teifi: 11,147
Tregaron: 3,841

English Gower: 14,442
Mumbles & Sketty: 37,298
Swansea: 92,930
Welsh Gower: 31,427

Cemais: 8,595
Fishguard: 4,072
Haverfordwest: 9,509
Haverfordwest Rural: 11,811
Milford Haven: 9,891
Narberth: 13,879
Neyland: 3,270
Pembroke Dock: 6,411
Pembroke Rural: 5,264
Pembroke: 5,447
St Davids: 6,625
Tenby: 5,055

Ammanford: 13,785
Carmarthen: 10,062
Carmarthen Rural: 23,085
Kidwelly & Burry Port: 10,581
Llandovery: 13,264
Llanelli: 17,394
Llanelli Rural: 17,798
Newcastle Emlyn: 8,304
Sylen: 19,192

Glyncorrwg: 4,150
Neath: 19,398
Neath Rural: 27,551
Pontardawe: 16,621
Port Talbot: 39,684

Merthyr Tydfil: 43,146

Aberdare & Hirwaun: 27,390
Llantrisant & Llanwit Fadre: 30,605
Mountain Ash: 17,028
Pontypridd: 22,065
Rhondda: 50,389
Tonyrefail: 14,658

Bridgend: 33,847
Maesteg: 13,789
Ogmore & Garwe: 11,499
Pencoed: 7,340
Porthcawl: 13,143
Pyle & Llynfi: 21,918

Caerleon: 12,122
Newport: 76,773
Rogerstone: 15,022

Abercarn: 13,035
Bedwas & Machen: 10,090
Bedwellty: 20,621
Caerphilly: 36,611
Gelligaer: 21,183
Mynyddislwyn: 12,882
Rhymney: 6,729
Risca: 11,524  

Abertillery: 12,596
Ebbw Vale: 17,859
Nantyglo & Brynmawr: 11,081
Tredegar: 11,584

Abersychan & Blaenavon: 9,576
Cwmbran: 37,362
Pontypool: 22,678

Abergavenny: 19,596
Chepstow: 28,746
Monmouth: 13,144
Usk: 6,012  

Aethwy & Dwyran: 8,058
Amlwch: 2,641
Beaumaris: 5,516
Holyhead: 7,381
Llangefni: 3,358
Menai Bridge: 2,355
Twrcelyn: 9,830
Valley: 10,692

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A blank (with no names) map is now on the gallery, in case anyone wants to play at gerrymandering. Two notes:

1. The un-numbered cantref in South Wales is Risca.

2. Cantrefi were basically the Welsh versions of English Hundreds (and Northern Wapentakes). I'm using the name because I like it. Though the things I've drawn have little relation to the actual ones, obviously.

Might start on variations on the same theme for parts of England at some point, though you won't see anything for a while.

Another edit: the total electorate at the time these figures come from was 2,225,599.

[afleitch]

I'm encountering familiar geographic problems once again I've tried my usual; leaving the arrangements in Flint/Wrexham broadly similar and constructing narrow coastal constituencies along the north coast of Wales. Then you're left with a rump rural constituency thats looks absurd on paper. So I can see why the Commission do what they do.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm encountering familiar geographic problems once again I've tried my usual; leaving the arrangements in Flint/Wrexham broadly similar and constructing narrow coastal constituencies along the north coast of Wales. Then you're left with a rump rural constituency thats looks absurd on paper. So I can see why the Commission do what they do.

The solution is probably to change the usual arrangements around Flintshire and Wrexham. Though, actually, a "rump rural constituency thats looks absurd on paper" might not be all that absurd (most of the rural areas in North Wales have more to do with each other than they do the coast) - which areas does it cover?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Many thanks for that effort Al.

Since we're firmly in the realms of fantasy here, I asked myself what would happen if Wales went independent?  The cube root law (see here for details) suggests that a Welsh parliament should have around 131 members.  If we try and redistrict Wales into, say, 3-5 member constituencies with 131 MPs, what would happen?

Here's my solution:


Critiques welcome.  Some observations of my own:
- Not sure whether Denbigh and Mold qualifies as "a rump rural constituency thats looks absurd on paper"
- Mid-Wales is a lot more coherent than it looks at first sight, even though it has bits of three counties in it.  Most of the main towns in this seat are linked by the Cambrian railway line.
- I know nothing about the Valleys, so I hope all the Valleys constituencies make sense and I haven't linked areas which actually have no communication links between them.  I am well aware that Ogmore is just the bits that were left over.  Rhonnda should read Rhondda.
- Cardiff needs splitting up into three constituencies (5+3+3 or 4+4+3), but I haven't tried to do that.  OTOH Cardiff + Cardiff Outer is 14 seats which can still fit into three constituencies (5+5+4).  If Cardiff Outer contains areas like Rhiwbina which are part of the Cardiff built-up area then having three constituencies for the combined area would make a lot of sense.

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency Names
1) Ynys Mon
2) Caernarfon and Dwyfor
3) Aberconwy
4) Clwyd West
5) Alyn and Deeside
6) Wrexham and Clwyd South
7) Montgomery and Meirionnydd
Ceredigion and Dinefwr
9) Brecon and Radnor
10) Pembroke and Carmarthen West
11) Monmouth
12) Llanelli
13) Swansea and Gower
14) Towy Valley
15) Ogmore
16) Bridgend
17) Vale of Glamorgan and Pontypridd
18) South Wales Valleys West
19) South Wales Valleys East
20) Cardiff North and South Wales Valleys South
21) Newport West and Cardiff East
22) Cardiff Bay and Penarth
23) Newport East

Rules: No fewer than 20 seats as part of plans to reduce the House by 150 MP's

[doktorb]

Constituency Names
1) Ynys Mon
2) Caernarfon and Dwyfor
3) Aberconwy
4) Clwyd West
5) Alyn and Deeside
6) Wrexham and Clwyd South
7) Montgomery and Meirionnydd
8.) Ceredigion and Dinefwr
9) Brecon and Radnor
10) Pembroke and Carmarthen West
11) Monmouth
12) Llanelli
13) Swansea and Gower
14) Towy Valley
15) Ogmore
16) Bridgend
17) Vale of Glamorgan and Pontypridd
18) South Wales Valleys West
19) South Wales Valleys East
20) Cardiff North and South Wales Valleys South
21) Newport West and Cardiff East
22) Cardiff Bay and Penarth
23) Newport East

Rules: No fewer than 20 seats as part of plans to reduce the House by 150 MP's

You know I'd love to rename some of those (18, 19, and 20 =) ) but I can't quite match up where each one covers, LOL.